Forbes Video: Is Brexit Really So Bad For European Stocks?

By Simon Constable 

The immediate aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was severe, especially for the British pound which plunged to its lowest level in decades. The news wasn’t all that beneficial for stocks either, at least initially.

But we all know that markets fluctuate over time. They go up and they go down. Over the long term a lot depends on the underlying economics in a country. Better economies tend to have better performing stock markets.

In Britain the jury is still out with some saying that Britain will suffer outside of the EU, while others, like me, see massive opportunities.

Earlier this week I spoke with Edward Dempsey, chief investment officer at Pension Partners, about his thoughts on where things end up. You can hear what he says in this video.

Forbes Video: What Is The Presidential Predictor

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to forecasting election results, many pundits got egg on their face recently. It only takes a quick look across the pond to the United Kingdom’s recent referendum on E.U. membership to see the problems in accurately predicting which way the vote will go. At least it was for the usual pundits. Read more here.

U.S. News: The Current Case for an ARM

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you are planning to buy a home, how should you finance it? The question is simple, but the answer may not be what first comes to mind.

"People like to go right to the 30-year, but that's the wrong thing to do," says Richard Rosso, a partner at Clarity Financial in Houston, referring to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which was the traditional way people could borrow to buy a home up until the early 1980s.

It's hard for some to believe, but the adjustable-rate mortgage as a widely available way to borrow is only a few decades old. Maybe for that reason, the idea that the fixed-rate mortgage as the go-to product seems to have stuck in the American psyche like chewing gum on the sole of a shoe. Read more here.

TheStreet: 3 Must-Watch Economic Indicators for the Summer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Not all economic indicators or market metrics are created equal. What counts changes with time and place. Here's what matters this summer:

Outside on the Street: What is the Recency Effect?

By SIMON CONSTABLE



What Is the Recency Effect? from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Outside On the Street: What You Need to Know Before Adopting a Pet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Joey Texiera and his dog Mervin the Chihuahua join me to discuss.

What You Need to Know Before Adopting a Pet from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

TheStreet: Why Trading Oil Became So Sticky

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Trading oil has always been a tricky business, but a decade ago, things changed to make it downright perilous. 

It wasn't that it became more volatile -- the crude market has always been choppy. Rather, the returns from investing in futures became disconnected with the real market. Here's the detail of what happened and how you can avoid the pitfalls.

The energy market became increasingly oversupplied, which in turn led to an unfavorable flip in how the futures markets for the energy perform. Read more here.

U.S. News: Yes, Risky Investments Have a Place in a Portfolio

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Many people will tell you to stay away from risky investments. But if you follow that advice, there is a chance that you might throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Think of risky investments like you think about salt: Too much could eventually kill you, but too little can be bad in other ways.

The same is true for assets like gold, industrial metals, grains, or even art. A little can be a good thing. Go overboard with it and you'll probably go bust.

Read more here.

Outside on the Street: Buy Amazon For The Firm You Don’t Know

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bullseye Brief's founder Adam Johnson explains what is still special about the iconic online retailer.


Buy Amazon For The Firm You Don't Know from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Forbes: How My ObamaCare Coverage Is Almost Worse Than No Coverage

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For many people, like me, ObamaCare has become like a flat fee tax.

Let me explain how.

It’s an amount that must be paid each month. Failure to do so will result in a fine from the government.

It’s not a flat rate tax, which is meant to be the same percentage tax rate but which is still dependent on income. A ten percent tax on a  $40,000 annual income is $4,000. But a 10% tax on $250,000 is $25,000. Same percentage rate but a different amount. It is neither a regressive or progressive tax.

Beyond a certain income level, which is relatively low, the net amount charged for ObamaCare coverage doesn’t change. Anyone with the same plan as I have (and who doesn’t receive a government subsidy) pays the same flat fee each month regardless of their income. Read more here.

Outside On The Street: How Government Is Killing Wall Street Innovation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

RSM's chief economist Joe Brusuelas explains himself.

How The Government Is Killing Wall Street Innovation from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Photo by Kvalifik on Unsplash

Outside On the Street: Banning the C-Note Is A Ruse

By SIMON CONSTABLE

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan explains his thoughts.

U.S. News: Investments in Nigeria Are Going Nowhere Anytime Soon

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While the media has been focused on the U.K.'s political theater of the absurd, elsewhere serious economic problems have been developing. 

A case in point is Nigeria, where the once booming economy has fallen on hard times and looks set to get even worse following events in late June. The country has both the largest population in Africa and the biggest economy on that continent, according to data from the World Bank. But those data points belie an economic malaise. Read more here.

Seeking Alpha: Why You Want A Strong Dollar

By SIMON CONSTABLE

I recently had the pleasure of being interviewed by Brian Bain for his radio show. He sums it up here and you can listen to out discussion as well.

Read and listen here.

Outside on the Street: Time to Short-Sell Consumer Staples

By SIMON CONSTABLE


Short-Sell Consumer Staples Stocks from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Outside on the Street: Silver to Skyrocket

By SIMON CONSTABLE

 

Why Silver May Rally from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Photo by Scottsdale Mint on Unsplash

WSJ: The Big Interview with Nigel Lawson

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In which I meet, and then grill, Lord Nigel Lawson, one of my heroes.

Financial Times, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: The Big Interview with Rand Paul

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In which I discuss matters with Sen.Rand Paul

Forbes: "Pink Tax" Accusations Are Like Bikini's -- Short On Substance

by SIMON CONSTABLE

Some readers aren’t going to like this, but the so-called pink tax reflects economics not gender bias.

Sorry, but sometimes the truth is hard.

The idea of a pink tax is that products aimed at women are priced higher than similar ones aimed at men. The reaction by some has been a series of screeds attacking corporate America as the home of a bunch of evil misogynists.

Their arguments are often like skimpy clothing: Short on substance. Read more here.

Photo by Tobias ToMar Maier, 

CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: The Real Economics Of New Economy Firms Like Uber

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Matchmakers, or companies that connect members of one group with another group, live or die by slightly different economic rules than most firms. What’s more, such companies have made, and continue to make, huge inroads into our economy. They include names such as AirBNB, American Express, Uber, Apple, and Visa. For instance, AirBNB connects people with apartments to rent out with people who want to rent them. The company doesn’t own the real estate. Read more here.

WSJ: The Big Interview With Ron Paul

By SIMON CONSTABLE

My conversation with Dr. Ron Paul, while sitting in his Washington office.

WSJ: The Big Interview With Barton Biggs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In which I speak with the late Barton Biggs

 

WSJ: The Big Interview With Jim Rogers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

My interview with Jim Rogers

Photo by Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, USA, 

CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: The Big Interview With Nouriel Roubini

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In which I interview Nouriel Roubini about the economy.

 

Forbes: More Brexit Lies Dispelled

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s not surprising that most people are averse to change. But some of the worries people have about Britain leaving the European Union are wildly pessimistic. They paint a world so gloomy that even fantasy writers would have a hard time selling these ideas to publishers. The level of gloom simply wouldn’t be seen as realistic enough.

For instance, in a coffee shop one morning a young Frenchman asked me (I’m English) if he’d be able to visit Britain after the so-called Brexit (Britain’s exit from the E.U.). Read more here.

Forbes: How Wall Street Really Invests

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Anyone wanting the inside scoop on how investing really works could do a whole lot worse than to read the forthcoming book by my former colleague Spencer Jakab. He’s an editor at the Wall Street Journal, but more importantly he was once a top-rated Wall Street stock analyst.

The book, Heads I Win, Tails I Win, which is scheduled to be published next week, might better have been labeled ’Confessions of a Wall Street Stockpicker.’ But knowing Jakab as I do, that really isn’t his style because such a title hints at unbridled debauchery. That’s not the image he projects, either personally or in his writing.

Read more here.

U.S. News: How to Save $10,000 in 6 Months

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Hardly a month goes by without some report or another stating that Americans aren't saving enough for retirement. It's a sad state of affairs, but it is also one that doesn't have to be inevitable, at least not if you are smart.

There are easy ways to jump-start the savings process. Here are some ideas that will generate savings of an additional $10,000 in six months. Read more here.

WSJ: Investors Expand Their Appetite for Commodities

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Desire for commodities-based funds is expanding beyond just oil and gold.

In recent months, investors also have developed a healthy appetite for funds focused on agricultural products and industrial materials. Indeed, the entire commodities complex has become a magnet for fund investors’ money, according to new research. Read more here.

Molten Gold Being Poured

Allen Drebert, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What Do Chart Gaps Mean for Investors?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some investors watch for “gaps” on daily stock-price charts as meaningful signs of future price moves. What exactly are they?

Stock charts show vertical bars with opening, high, low and closing prices. Most of the time, the price ranges overlap from one day to the next, but sometimes—say, a stock opens higher than the previous day’s trading range and stays there—there will be a gap, or empty space on the chart where no trading occurred. Technical analysts see some gaps as harbingers of a change in trends. Here are two key types:

Photo by Behnam Norouzi on Unsplash

WSJ: The Big Interview With Robert Shiller

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

A blast from the past: With Robert Shiller discussing economics.

Barron's: Getting Mileage From Gasoline Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Gasoline prices look set to trade in a sideways range over the summer, but there are profits to be made for investors willing to play the options market. The main caveat: It will require taking on significant risk by selling options rather than buying them. 

Experts say gasoline prices won’t venture far from the recent active month futures of $1.50 a gallon on the CME. Few are expecting a return to the days of $3 or $4 a gallon fuel—and there seems little chance we’ll see $1 a gallon. Read more here.

Photo by Gab Pili on Unsplash