WSJ: Holiday Gifts for the Money-Minded

By SIMON CONSTABLE
If there's one time of year when people are apt to break the budget, it's Christmas.

Here are some gifts that at least stand a chance of nurturing the money-savvy gene. What's more, we have a gift idea for pocketbooks of all sizes.
1. One Antarctic Dollar ($1)
Giving cash is an old standby, but often not special. So what about beautiful currency from far-flung lands? See original story here.

Photo by Derek Oyen on Unsplash

Sales of WSJ Guide Continue to Soar...

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sales of the WSJ Guide to the 50 Economic Indicators that Really Matter have now surpassed 70,000 worldwide including editions in Japanese, Korean and Chinese as well as the original English.

WSJ: Mandela Obituary

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Nelson Mandela

South Africa The Good News / www.sagoodnews.co.za, 

CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: Year-End Distributions Hold Dangers for Fund Investors

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Congratulations, you've made it through another year! Well, almost. For mutual-fund investors, there is at least one more thing that could trip you up: ignoring the so-called date of record for the capital-gains distributions that many funds pay near year-end. Failure to pay attention may mean you get taxed for profits you didn't actually participate in.

With stocks, you decide when to take your capital gain or loss when you sell. But funds must distribute substantially all of the net realized gains in their portfolios to investors each year, explains Brian Peer, co-portfolio manager at Novato, Calif.-based Hennessy Funds. See original story here.

WSJ: Why Flexible-Rate Mortgages Make Sense

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you're buying a home anytime soon, here's some contrarian advice: Don't take out a fixed-rate mortgage. If you do, you're likely to pay more than you need to.

Instead, it often makes more sense to choose a floating-rate note, also known as an adjustable-rate mortgage. Even on a small mortgage, over time you'll save thousands of dollars. If you use the extra cash to pay down the loan, you'll save even more. See original story here.

Photo by Dillon Kydd on Unsplash

WSJ: 'Presidential Stock Cycle' Sees Weak 2014

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Tomorrow, as you cast a vote, you might also gird yourself for rocky markets ahead, especially during the first nine months of 2014.

How so? The second year of a presidential term is traditionally a period of subpar stock performance.

Specifically, since 1945, the second year of a president's term saw the S&P 500 gain 5.3% in price on average, versus 16.1% in the third, according to an analysis by S&P Capital IQ. No distinction is made between a president's first or second term. The clock simply starts over.The "presidential stock market cycle" says that stocks perform better or worse depending on the year of the president's term. The second year is the worst, and the third is the best, on average. See original story here.

Barrons: Zinc Prices Could Jump 20+%

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Now might be a great time to galvanize your portfolio with zinc futures.

Why? Booming construction in China, combined with mine closures, could propel prices about 20% higher over the next couple of years, as demand for the metal outpaces output. The likely result: a supply shortfall in 2015.

Zinc has moved roughly sideways since March. But benchmark prices of the metal—used in construction, automobile production, and the manufacture of brass—could hit $2,400 a metric ton by 2015, about 23% above its recent quote of $1,955 on the London Metal Exchange, analysts say. A recent report from brokerage firm Natixis cites "the imminent demise of a number of significant [zinc] mines around the world," as a cause. Mineral deposits get depleted as ore is extracted. At some point, it isn't profitable to continue digging. See original story here.

WSJ Live: Shiller Big Interview

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Blast from the past-- my 2010 interview with Robert Shiller, who was today awarded the Nobel Prize in economics...

Robert Shiller

MeJudice, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Common

WSJ: 'Mean Reversion' Suggests Big Stock Gains Won't Continue

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors tend to be either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic based on recent experience. They often think recent good or bad performance will continue indefinitely.

In simple terms, years of subpar stock returns will be followed by better returns to bring overall performance back to the long-term norm. It works vice versa, also.But investment returns over time are more likely to exhibit what economists call "mean reversion." That's the idea that over long periods the annual returns of various assets will swing back toward their long-term average—or back to the mean. See original story here.

Barrons: How Bernanke Built a Metal Mountain

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Industrial companies irked at Wall Street over the availability of warehoused metal have their eyes on the wrong target. The real culprit is the Federal Reserve and its continued easy-money policy. When that policy ends, metals prices could sink.

Metal is piling up in London Metal Exchange-licensed warehouses as inventory is quick to enter but slow to leave. In some cases, it's taking more than a year to get aluminum out of storage once you ask for it. See original story here.

WSJ: A Weak Economy Puts the U.S. Just a Couple of Hiccups From Recession

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Unless you are one of a very lucky few, there is little about the economic recovery that looks "robust." We are likely just one or two hiccups away from another recession.

For all but high earners it's increasingly tough to make ends meet. Just look at J.C. Penney as a prime indicator, says Kristin Bentz, consumer expert at Phoenix-based private-equity firm PMG Venture Group. See original story here.

PLBechly, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: Break Up the Banks Says TARP's Barofsky

WSJ: What Is a Basis Point and Why Is It So Important?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investment professionals regularly refer to "basis points" when discussing things like bond yields and mutual funds.

In the bond market, if the yield of a Treasury note rises to 1.05% from 1% it is said to have moved by five basis points or, as some abbreviate it, five "bips."

Why does this seemingly tiny unit of measure—one basis point is equal to one one-hundredth of a percentage point—get so much attention? It's pretty simple: Basis points can add up to a lot of money for both individual investors and institutions. See original story here.

Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

WSJ -- Rand Paul: Don’t Give F-16’s to Egypt

By SIMON CONSTABLE

F-16 Warplanes

US Air Force, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: Coupon Clipping Explained

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When you hear people talk about coupon clipping—that is, in an investment context—they typically mean they are collecting the interest payments from bonds.

These days bond interest payments are handled electronically, so there is no need for anyone to actually get the scissors out.Coupon clipping refers back to a time when these fixed-income securities came printed with coupons on them. To receive the interest payments, the bondholder would clip off each coupon as its payment came due and redeem it for cash. See original story here.

Barrons: Why Sunspots Will Warm Natural Gas Market

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A decline in the number of spots on the sun could warm up the market for natural gas.

These spots, which scientists have observed for centuries, are caused by changes in the magnetic fields on the solar surface, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration says. Scientists aren't sure why, but when the number of visible spots declines, temperatures on Earth tend to be lower. This matters for investors because the sun is entering another period of fewer spots.

You can profit from this situation if you focus on two things. See original post here.

Photo by Andrey Grinkevich on Unsplash

WSJ: What Are Doves and Hawks?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When you hear finance people talking about doves and hawks, they usually aren't referring to our feathered friends. Most often they are describing the attitude of Federal Reserve policy makers toward inflation.

The Federal Reserve, aka the central bank of the U.S., has two mandates: full employment and a stable price level (i.e., low inflation). This dual mandate creates a tension—and a balancing act—because actions that focus on one side can worsen conditions on the other. See original post here.

Photo by Mathew Schwartz on Unsplash

WSJ: U.S. Oil Boom is Bad News for Tanker Business

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The approach of U.S. energy independence has becalmed an important part of the global maritime industry: the business of hauling crude oil across the oceans. What’s worse for investors is that the trade winds likely won’t pick up any time soon. See original post here.

Photo by Natalya Letunova on Unsplash

WSJ: What's the Difference Consumer Staples and Durables

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Stock strategists often talk about two groups of companies that sell goods to individuals: makers of "consumer staples" and makers of "consumer durables."

They sound similar but are in fact completely different in ways that matter to investors.
Consumer staples are the goods you buy for immediate, everyday use—like shampoo, toothpaste and soap. See original post here.

Photo by Joshua Hoehne on Unsplash

WSJ: Auction-Rate Securities Alive & Well

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Is it déjà vu all over again in the debt market?  You’d be forgiven for thinking so, especially if you remember the auction-rate securities debacle from 2008.

Those securities were and are used by some tax-exempt organizations as a form of inexpensive financing. They price using a Dutch auction at periodic (usually short) intervals.  Read more here.

Photo by Joshua Mayo on Unsplash

Barrons: Energy Boom Powers Up Shipping

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The North American energy boom should help power up an industry that's been stuck in the doldrums: marine transportation.

Shipping, the ugly stepsister of commodities, has been unappealing over the past few years. A massive shipbuilding boom created overcapacity, sending shipping fees into free fall. The Baltic Dry Index, a key benchmark for waterborne transportation fees, peaked at 11,793 in May 2008 before plunging to 663 in December that year, according to FactSet. By Friday it crept back to 933. See original story here.

WSJ: When Preferred Securities Make Sense

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors seeking income might want to take a peek at preferred-stock funds.

What is preferred stock? It is a hybrid security that is a cross between equity and debt. Like debt, it pays a fixed amount of interest, and holders get paid before any common-stock dividends are distributed. But like equity, it tends to have larger price swings to both the upside and the downside.Buyers may reap handsome yields of around 6% with advantageous tax treatment on distributions. Still, you need to understand the nuances of preferred stock to get the most from it.  See original story here.

WSJ: How a New Pope Gets Picked

Cardinal Egan explains to me how the new pope will be chosen...

WSJ: What Your Need to Know About Price Earnings Ratios

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The price of a stock doesn't tell you anything about whether it's a good deal, but the so-called price/earnings ratio can help. The trick is figuring out which P/E ratio to use.

Obviously, just because one stock is $200 a share and another $12 doesn't mean the latter is cheaper in terms of what you're getting. For a better gauge, you need to calculate what you are paying for each dollar of company earnings. Hence, the P/E ratio, derived by dividing the price of the stock by one year of per-share earnings. So if one stock has a P/E of 12 and the other of 10, the latter is cheaper. Read original story here.

By SIMON CONSTABLE



Friday we got news that jobs remain scarce in the U.S. Unemployment is still hovering around 8 percent but that doesn’t really give any sense of just how bad things are for the vast majority of Americans. Thursday last week I heard a presentation by Professor Matthew Slaughter of Dartmouth’s Tuck school of business. It was sobering to say the least. First he pointed out: it will take until 2020 for the economy to get back the number of jobs we had at the beginning of the great recession. It gets worse. Even if you have a job, your earnings are being eroded. Median pay adjusted for inflation has fallen since 1989. It should be a reminder to anyone who thinks we’re on the road to recovery that it will be a long road.

WSJ: Are Mom and Pop Heading for Wall Street? .

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Like the host of "The Price Is Right" TV game show, Wall Street is saying "Come on down!" 

Investment professionals are anticipating an influx of income- and growth-hungry mom-and-pop "retail" investors into the stock market this year—especially as the economy picks up and pressure grows for interest rates to start rising. See original story here.

Fox News Channel: Debt Ceiling Discussion

Michael Castner on WhoSay

NBR: Fiscal Cliff Problems Still Loom

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If the shenanigans in Congress at year end have taught us anything it’s that Washington just
can’t help but do stupid things.  While the tax situation for many Americans may now have been solved, the problem of spending cuts hasn’t. 

That’s bad in itself, not getting an important job done, but it’s also actually harmful to the U.S.  economy.  Not solving it has increased what economists call policy uncertainty.  Broadly speaking that’s ambiguity around what the government is going to do with laws etc.  When uncertainty is high, businesses, the real drivers of job growth in the economy, tend to invest in fewer factories and hire fewer people. 

Despite Congress having managed to avoid the fiscal cliff, uncertainty in the U.S. is still elevated.  How do we know?  

The smart people at Stanford and Chicago measure it in the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index.  That index is now around three times the level it averaged during 2006.  In a recent paper, the same authors that track uncertainty say "Increases are driven mainly by tax, spending and healthcare policy uncertainty."  

The consequence:  lower economic growth and millions of potential jobs lost.  Now if our government can just get its act together, provide some clarity and then get out of the way of
the private sector then maybe our economy can get roaring again, just like it used to.

Photo by Louis Velazquez on Unsplash