Barrons: Zinc Prices Could Jump 20+%

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Now might be a great time to galvanize your portfolio with zinc futures.

Why? Booming construction in China, combined with mine closures, could propel prices about 20% higher over the next couple of years, as demand for the metal outpaces output. The likely result: a supply shortfall in 2015.

Zinc has moved roughly sideways since March. But benchmark prices of the metal—used in construction, automobile production, and the manufacture of brass—could hit $2,400 a metric ton by 2015, about 23% above its recent quote of $1,955 on the London Metal Exchange, analysts say. A recent report from brokerage firm Natixis cites "the imminent demise of a number of significant [zinc] mines around the world," as a cause. Mineral deposits get depleted as ore is extracted. At some point, it isn't profitable to continue digging. See original story here.

WSJ Live: Shiller Big Interview

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Blast from the past-- my 2010 interview with Robert Shiller, who was today awarded the Nobel Prize in economics...

Robert Shiller

MeJudice, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Common

WSJ: 'Mean Reversion' Suggests Big Stock Gains Won't Continue

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors tend to be either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic based on recent experience. They often think recent good or bad performance will continue indefinitely.

In simple terms, years of subpar stock returns will be followed by better returns to bring overall performance back to the long-term norm. It works vice versa, also.But investment returns over time are more likely to exhibit what economists call "mean reversion." That's the idea that over long periods the annual returns of various assets will swing back toward their long-term average—or back to the mean. See original story here.