Barron's: As Sunspots Fade, Will Crop Yields Fall?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A decades-old government crop report, combined with the very latest data from NASA, seem to indicate that there will be poor growing conditions and lower grain yields over the next few years. As a result, traders should expect prices for wheat and corn to rise.

The report from the U.S.D.A., published almost four decades ago, studied crop yields in the U.S. from 1866 to 1973. The paper, “Do Sunspot Cycles Affect Crop Yields?” by Virden Harrison, an agricultural economist with the commodity economics division of the USDA’s economic-research service, matched historical crop-yield data for wheat, corn, rice, and cotton with sunspot activity. And NASA forecasts for sunspots suggest that the sun is commencing lower activity. Read more here.

Photo by NASA on Unsplash

TheStreet: Why Dinner's About to Start Eating More of Your Wallet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

New York (TheStreet) -- If food prices start taking a bigger bite out of your wallet in the near future, you can blame it on Mother Nature.

A confluence of events including strange weather from El Nino, activity on the solar surface, and the effects of a U.S. drought years ago are reducing agricultural output, which may drive up grocery store prices for individual consumers and supply costs for dining chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CME - Get Report)  and coffee shops like Starbucks (SBUX - Get Report)  Read more here.

Photo by Shayda Torabi on Unsplash

TheStreet: Why Financial Crises Aren't Such a Bad Thing for Your Wallet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In the seven years since Lehman Brothers failed, tipping the world into a financial crisis, the U.S. government has enacted a plethora of regulations to prevent another one.

But trauma aside, there are some tangible benefits to such a crisis, from a Darwinian winnowing of weak businesses to curbing extreme risk-taking. Here are some:

OZY: The Real Costs of a Government Shutdown

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Two years ago, inside Washington’s Beltway, bars extended happy hours, drinks flowed plentifully and furloughed government workers cheerfully toasted one another. The scene was a result of an impasse in Congress over spending, and when it was all over, everyone went back to work — while, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, costs totaled some $24 billion in lost output across the economy. Even worse: The government saved zilch because workers were given back pay for the time they were at home (or in the bar).

Legislators in Washington appeared to be headed for a similar showdown this week, until the White House and congressional leaders reached a tentative deal to raise the $18.1 trillion federal debt limit.

Read more here.

U.S. News: 6 Reasons to be Bullish on Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Believe it or not, there are still reasons to be bullish on stocks, and not just because pundits keep showing their angst on business TV. (They are often wrong.) Here are some key points for investors to consider.

World economic growth should improve. Forget the idea that the world economy is about to come to a standstill because China hit a bump in the road. Growth is picking up, says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. in Boston.

Read more here.

TheStreet: 5 Reasons the Fed's Economic Progress Is Painfully Slow

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It should be clear by now that the Federal Reserve is making slow progress toward its dual goals of keeping prices stable and achieving full employment.

Here are five of the biggest reasons the central bank, whose monetary policy committee is meeting this week, is falling short:

Forbes: How To Be The Worst Boss Possible -- Part 1

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part one of a continuing series. If you aren’t cut out for management, why be just mediocre when with a little more effort you can be truly awful?

Here are some tips.

TheStreet: Is the Fed Putting the 'Chapel of Love' Out of Business?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The chime of wedding bells is becoming rarer and rarer, and it may be the Federal Reserve's fault.

While many young couples choose to get married solely for love, the cost of acquiring a family home can cool their passion, according to a recent study. The effect is a depressing one. 

"A higher housing-cost burden in a county is associated with a lower marriage rate," according to a paper from the Eastern Economic Journal titled " Bricks, Mortar, and Wedding Bells: Does the Cost of Housing Affect the Marriage Rate in the U.S.?" Read more here.

Photo by Jakob Owens on Unsplash

TheStreet: Yes, the Dollar Can Buy Love -- And It's About to Buy Even More

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Brace yourselves: The dollar is set to surge once again. 

That's because while there are questions about the strength of the U.S. economy, there's no question that the rest of the world is in an even worse state. 

Read more here.

U.S. News & World Report: How to Buy Stocks When the Dollar is Strong

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The greenback is looking strong, but there's no reason to believe that it can't get even stronger. If it does, then it will have an impact on your investments. Here's why it matters and some key things you need to know.

"It's the kind of thing that Americans don't think about much unless they travel overseas," says Eddy Elfenbein, a Washington, D.C.-based private investor and author of the influential Crossing Wall Street blog. But when the dollar is strong, it does change the way various types of investments perform. "It's like putting a magnet near a compass," he says. Read more here.

Photo by Timis Alexandra on Unsplash

OZY: Can Investors Trust Wall Street's New Ticker Tape?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It wasn’t long ago that IBM Watson emerged as a new kind of Jeopardy! champ in a battle of knowledge against two human quiz whizzes and proved what had long eluded scientists — that computers really could emulate human intelligence. Now one of the brains behind that same technology is playing a part in trying to shape a more democratic Wall Street.

Meet Social Alpha, a New York City-based startup created a couple of years ago by Prem Melville, who not only holds a Ph.D. in artificial intelligence but is also a veteran of the IBM Watson Research Center. Social Alpha’s programs are designed to scour Twitter in an effort to pinpoint hot investing tips — in real time — “to increase profitable trades and reduce investment risk.” How, exactly? Well, it attempts to pinpoint what analysts and investors are saying about stocks in your portfolio or how people feel about certain new investment opportunities, among other things that get discussed in tweets.

Read more here.

U.S. News & World Report: Why There's No Better Time to Buy Commodities

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Commodities haven't just had a rough year. It's been more like a rough half-decade, in which prices of raw materials and foodstuffs were halved. Once a mainstay ingredient in the investing soup, this asset class is now being shunned, and some people are making ever more bearish price forecasts. 

So is it time to jump back in and gain the well-documented investing benefits of adding metals, grains and energy into your investment pot? Maybe so, and there are good reasons to consider it (plus some pitfalls to avoid).

Read more here.

Forbes: Quit With No Net? Hard Work But Worth It -- Tess Vigeland

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Quitting the job that’s killing your soul!  It’s one of those seemingly ever present fantasies of office workers. But to quit without a net, that’s unnerving to the vast majority of people. Yet it’s what long time radio host Tess Vigeland did. She recently wrote a book about her experience: Leap: Leaving a Job with No Plan B to Find the Career and Life You Really Want.

Unlike many confessional books this one won’t tell you how easy it was. Or that the post-quit euphoria just kept on going for months. Or that everyone should do it because, hey, what the hell.  No, the story here is quite different. If you believe Vigeland, it’s hard work and there will be loads of anxiety. It will upend your life in ways you never imagined. Read more here.

Forbes: Ten Money Tasks To Get Done By Thanksgiving

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It might feel as if summer is barely over, but truthfully Thanksgiving is just weeks away followed quickly by holidays. Then it will be 2016. So don't dally, here are the money related tasks that you need to get started on now:

1. Set a budget for holiday gifts and then stick to it. It doesn't matter how small or large an amount you decide to allocate, just don't spend more than you can afford. If you are a little strapped this year, then maybe make something instead, like a painting. The truth is, your true friends really love you for your company not what physical things you give them.

2. Plan how much money you want to give to charity this year. Then send the money. I normally recommend making such payments at the beginning of the year, but we all forget sometimes. If you did, then do it now and then keep a record for tax purposes. It might help reduce what you owe the Internal Revenue Service. Read more here.

Photo by SJ . on Unsplash

Forbes: Nobel Economist Deaton --Trade Not Aid Makes You Rich

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Congratulations to the Nobel prize committee for actually awarding a free trade advocate the prize for economics. That view that trade makes us richer, along with bare knuckle free markets, has been somewhat quiet in the field of late as central planners emerged from their closets during the financial crisis. That’s why it is extra special that the new economics Nobel laureate is canny Scotsman Angus Deaton. Read more here.

Angus Deaton

Photo by Holger Motzkau, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: @StockCats Says Fed Bubble Biggest Problem Facing StockMarket

By SIMON CONSTABLE

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The person who tweets under the twitter handle @StockCats kindly agreed to open up to Forbes readers.  StockCats doesn’t look kindly on what the Fed is doing.

I’ve long been a fan of what StockCats writes, but Twitter’s 140 character limit is somewhat limiting for anyone, even a cat lover. The best line next to the avatar on the twitter feed: “I work hard so my cats can have a better life.” It’s hard to disagree.

Here, presented lightly edited, are the questions and the cat-answers.

Read more here.

U.S. News & World Report: How Global Conflict Can Boost Your Portfolio

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When the world goes to war, should you fortify your portfolio with defense stocks? Technically, we might not be in a world war, but little by little, the globe is becoming a chaotic jumble of military conflicts.

Some conflicts are burning slowly, like that in Ukraine; others, such as those across the Middle East, are raging. Either way, governments around the world are seeing the need to arm up, if only to head off unwanted excursions from neighboring countries.

If spending does pick up, it could bring in some huge profits for those companies manufacturing the latest high-tech weaponry, smart bombs and warplanes. Specifically, it's companies such as Lockheed Martin Corp. (ticker: LMT), Northrup Grumman Corp. (NOC), Raytheon Co. (RTN), General Dynamics Corp. (GD) and Boeing Co. (BA) that should profit.

Read more here.

OZY: The Sad Truth About Major Energy Finds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

You have just discovered a sizable natural gas field. Actually, not sizable but what could be the world’s largest. It happens to be located ideally enough off the coast of Egypt, a growing energy hub, and it may hold up to 30 trillion cubic feet of gas. Do the math, and at current European prices, it’d be worth roughly $200 billion, or more than two-thirds the size of Egypt’s entire economy.

You can hear that Bangles song — “Walk Like an Egyptian” — can’t you? Or at least, they’d better be dancing in the street there with this kind of news.

But of course, this is the world of energy, an Alice in Wonderland nightmare that can make absolutely no sense. Demand can rise, and still prices can fall. Or countries too dependent on it (read Venezuela or Russia) can find themselves with little to fall back on. Which brings us to what this latest discovery will really mean to Egypt. Will it be its savior? Will it make Egypt rich? Read more here.

Natural Gas Flare

Photo by Tim Evanson, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What Is the Buyback Window?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What is a buyback window, and does it matter for investors?

It is a period when a company is allowed to buy back its stock. Companies including the largest, Apple Inc., have been buying, which tends to support the price. 

The reason for a period when a company can buy back stock and a period when it can’t is to prevent companies from violating insider-trading rules. A company can’t buy back stock when it has nonpublic information that could affect the share price. Read more here.

WSJ: Unfriendly Tax-Friendly Funds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here’s hard news about mutual funds that are designed to minimize tax burdens: The amount they save investors is often less than the extra fees investors pay the funds themselves. 

“The performance of these funds is really quite abysmal,” says David Nanigian, a professor of investments at the Richard D. Irwin Graduate School at the American College of Financial Services in Bryn Mawr, Pa., and one of the authors of a report titled “Is Your Tax-Managed Fund Manager Hiding in the Closet?” published in the Fall 2015 edition of the Journal of Wealth Management. The other authors are Dale Domian and Philip Gibson, professors at York University in Toronto and Winthrop University in Rock Hill, S.C., respectively. Read more here.

IRS, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: Milk Prices Likely to Rise in 2016

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It could soon be time to lay off the latte and, for that matter, grilled cheese sandwiches, too. Why? Because milk prices are set to rally next year. In case you forgot, cheese is made from milk.

Recently plummeting U.S. milk prices mean it doesn’t pay for farmers to maintain the highest quality milk production of their dairy herds. As a result, herd size is set to drop and production with it. It’s a problem that could take years to work out. Still, there’s a chance for traders to profit.

November-dated futures prices for class III milk have been sliding for much of the year, trading Friday on the CME at $15.61 per hundred pounds, down from more than $17 in early June. Class III milk is primarily used in the manufacture of cheese, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In 2014, prices were in excess of $20 per hundred pounds for the first 11 months of the year, says the USDA. Read more here.

Photo by Eiliv-Sonas Aceron on Unsplash

TheStreet: Obamacare Actually Isn't All That Affordable -- Unless You're Broke

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It's time for the Affordable Care Act to join a long list of oxymorons. Why? Because rather like "military intelligence," "cat proof," "government organization," and "simple calculus," the law better known as Obamacare turns out to be an inherent contradiction. For a sizeable part of the population, anyway.

The ACA is just not affordable to a big chunk of those it was most meant to serve: The previously uninsured. In fact, many are worse off than before, according to a new study. That fact could also unravel part of the program's foundation, which could be a problem for healthcare insurers. 

Read more here.