U.S. News: Stop Watching the Fed's Every Move

By SIMON CONSTABLE

You need to stop worrying about what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. It's most probably just making you anxious.

This advice might seem to be at odds with the hullaballoo emanating from TV business news where some commentators think that the Fed's next utterance is the be-all and end-all.

For some people, watching the Fed is rightly an obsession. But such individuals are frequently employed in roles managing tens of billions of dollars of money, and where nuances in the Fed's actions may mean the difference between a profit or a loss which can often be counted in millions.

Most of us aren't in those jobs. Here's some detail on why it mostly doesn't matter what the Fed says or does. Read more here.

WSJ: The Key to Financial Discipline? It May be as Simple as Taking a Class

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

It is well-known that successful investing requires patience and the ability to delay gratification. The question has long been: Can such discipline be taught?

A recent study suggests it can. Read more here.

Forbes: What A Wine Connoisseur Taught Me About Business

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When you meet a wine connoisseur you expect to learn about wine. But I learned something far more useful when I met with Mark Oldman, author of How to Drink Like a Billionaire: Mastering Wine with Joie de Vivre.

Better still, I don't know if he was aware of the matter.

The key is that Oldman knows wine and he knows rich people. It is the intersection between the two that gave me an insight into how to be better at business. Read more here.

Barron's: Lumber Prices Headed Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A mini-trade war between the U.S. and Canada is set to send lumber prices higher.

At issue is the price Canadian foresters charge to cut down a tree, which is known as stumpage. The Canadians charge less than their U.S. counterparts, explains Kevin Mason, managing director at ERA Forest Products Research in Vancouver. U.S. producers believe the price is unfairly low and is undercutting U.S. lumber activity. 

The immediate result of any new tariffs or trade restrictions would be reduced supply of wood to the U.S., where demand for housing lumber is likely to rise sharply. The effects have already spread from the outdoors to Chicago’s trading floors. Active-month contracts closed Friday around $377 per 1,000 board feet, up from around $338 at year end. But there’s potential for further gains as a tariff-free solution looks unlikely before a preliminary ruling set for April 24. Read more here.

Photo by Irena Carpaccio on Unsplash

Forbes: 13 Reasons To Love Open Plan Offices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Open plan offices have gotten too much of a bad name. It's a shame because they are far better than the alternative which is the ubiquitous cube, or cube farm, as I call the plural.

Here's why you should love the "no walls" working arrangement. Read more here.

Forbes: The Stock Market's Half Trillion Dollar Problem

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The stock market has a problem.

It has become dependent on new money from those companies buying back their own stock.

The amount of money coming into the market from this source is huge. Read more here.

U.S. News: The Time Might Be Right to Invest in Argentina

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Argentina has a rightly deserved reputation as a perennial economic basket case, but that doesn't mean the malaise will continue.

Indeed, it seems things might be turning the corner, and some investors are starting to get excited. A recent report from Brown Brothers Harriman says there has been a "significant increase recently" from clients about onshore investments in Argentina. Read more here.

At The Studio...

By SIMON CONSTABLE







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Pictures by Greg Stone copyright Greg Stone 2016-2017. 

Forbes: Why The Economics Of Scottish Independence Don't Make Sense

By SIMON CONSTABLE

New demands for another referendum on Scottish independence make some sense politically. For the Scottish economy, not so much. Read more here.

Forbes: Where Are The Tax Cuts, Mr. President?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Since taking office a few weeks ago Donald Trump has done some good things for the economy, such as lifting the burdensome regulatory apparatus imposed by the previous administration.

What's lacking is major tax reform. Here's why it needs to go to the top of the agenda right now. It should stay there until completed. Here's why:

Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, 

CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. News: Nigeria Stocks Are a Risky Investment

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Nigeria's economy is still a mess. Unfortunately, it may be a while before things right themselves.
Like many energy-rich countries, Nigeria's economy got hit hard when oil prices plunged to $26 a barrel in February last year. To put the size of the move in perspective, oil was trading at more than $100 in mid-2014.

Unfortunately, the rebound in crude prices hasn't helped Nigeria much – the list of problems for the country's economy is so long it is hard to know where to start. Read more here.

Forbes: Why China's Leaders Should Start Freaking Over Pork Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

China's leaders should feel uneasy right now. The reason comes down to the economics of food.

The price of pork jumped recently in the communist country, up 7.1% in January, according to a report from Reuters. While that may not seem like a reason to worry, those Chinese party officials who understand what was really behind the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising will likely start shifting in their seats nervously. Read more here.

U.S. News: Embrace Anxiety and Invest in Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some people still aren't getting the message when it comes to saving for retirement.

They are avoiding the stock market like it's the plague. Sure, stocks can go down as well as up and that might make you nervous. But now is the time to get over the anxiety.

Data shows that on average people know that stocks are a better investment over long periods of time. But averages hide the behavior of some people that is detrimental to long-term investing. Read more here.

WSJ: What to Do When Your ETF Shuts Down

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The exchange-traded-fund industry is quickly becoming a dog-eat-dog world.

While ETFs have enjoyed explosive growth over the past decade, a record number of them—127—closed up shop last year, and liquidations are showing no sign of slowing.

Here is a look at what is fueling the closure trend and what happens to investors when the plug gets pulled on an ETF.

WSJ: What Is the Shadow Economy and Why Does It Matter?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The shadow economy is perhaps best described by the activities of those operating in it: work done for cash, where taxes aren’t paid, and regulations aren’t strictly followed.

Most of the businesses operating in the shadow economy aren’t what most people would think of as criminal enterprises, says Cristina Terra, professor of economics at Essec Business School in France, and author of the book “Principles of International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics.”

Read more here.

Forbes: Why It Might Be Time to Bet On Foreign Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's time to get your investing passport. Foreign stocks look ripe for a rebound, at least based on history.

Read more here.

Why It Might Be Time to Bet On Foreign Stocks from Constable Confidential on Vimeo.

Forbes: Why Emerging Markets May Go Limp

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Strong emerging markets stocks and a strong dollar don't usually go together too well.

That's why anyone considering investing in places like Argentina, Brazil, Thailand, and South Africa, might want to get ready for a bump in the road.

Read more here.


  Why Emerging Markets May Slump from Constable Confidential on Vimeo.

U.S. News: Emerging Markets Are Full of Investing Risk and Reward

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Emerging market stocks have been on a tear lately, and some say the rally could continue, but there are reasons to be cautious. Anyone wanting to invest in the sector should understand the risks and potential rewards.

The MSCI Emerging Markets index, which tracks stocks in a variety of emerging market countries, has shot up more than 10 percent this year versus where it ended last year.

That's a sizable move, especially when an annualized stock return of 10 percent is considered healthy, never mind such a move in less than two months. Will it continue? Maybe not. Read more here.