Constable Confidential: May 2023

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Forbes.com: Sunak’s Latest Inflation Plan To Take Britain Back To The 1970s

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Just when we thought Britain’s economic policy couldn’t get more bizarre, up pops an announcement from Rishi Sunak, the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister.

Earlier in May, news broke that Sunak would pressure supermarkets to offer basic food staples such as milk, bread and butter at the lowest possible prices, according to multiple reports.

The phrase used by Britain’s media is “price caps” and everyone in the UK should be concerned as it represents a return to failed 1970s economic policies. Read more here.

Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing, OGL 3,

via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Corporate Tax Cuts Don’t Always Lead To More Jobs, New Research Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Who benefits most from cuts in corporate tax rates? Some say it is job seekers, while others see it as a giveaway to the rich.

According to a new paper distributed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, they are both correct and wrong at the same time. The truth is what happens depends directly of the type of business. Read more here.

Geraldshields11, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Monday, May 29, 2023

Forbes.com: Why Britain Should Keep King Charles III And The Monarchy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Earlier this month, when King Charles got crowned by the Arch-Bishop of Canterbury, protestors took to the street demanding that the Monarchy should be abolished.

The logic of their position is clear. National leadership by a hereditary elite makes no sense in a meritocracy. In theory, I’d tend to agree.

However, what we know from European history shows that ditching your King or Queen tends to lead to tyranny and financial disaster. It's for that reason keeping Charles as Britain’s head of state makes a lot of sense. Read more here.

The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Scotland’s Latest Attempt To Kill Its Own Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Scotland’s latest bizarre economic policy is about to run headlong into common sense. The result will be a disaster for Edinburgh’s famed International Festival, which is due to kick off, as usual, this August.

The Festival sold a little more than 3 million tickets in 2019, pulling in an estimated 450,000 visitors to Scotland’s capital city.

The 2020 pandemic meant there was no festival that year. But when it resumed in 2022, ticket sales sank by almost a third to 2.2 million.

But so much for the rebound. This year is likely to see another drop because of a strange and self-defeating housing regulation that got passed by the Scottish parliament in 2022. Read more here.

marsupium photography, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Still No Recession: Wall Street Gurus Should Be Ashamed

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Where’s the imminent recession we were promised a year ago?

Nowhere apparently, but hardly anyone has admitted they were wrong. And that includes Wall Street gurus.

Last June, the finance world was abuzz with pledges that the U.S. economy was barely a hare’s whisker from diving into a recession. Back then, I wrote a column for Time magazine that clearly showed no signs of an imminent recession.

There are still few signs that the economy will contract in the weeks ahead. In fact, the opposite seems true. Read more here.

Carol M. Highsmith , Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: U.S. Debt Ceiling Theater Of The Absurd Now Almost Over

By SIMON CONSTABLE

At last, the debt ceiling debacle looks close to being over at least until the next time.

It’s the worst political theatre possible, and it happens time after time after time.

Yet somehow, much of the media always goes for the most unlikely result. Specifically, the message is simple:

Failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling will result in America’s first default ever on its debt — the best debt in the world, apparently — and that event will quickly knock the dollar off its high pedestal and quickly pauperize Americans—end of story. Read more here.

The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Buy Ford Motor, Says Bullseye Brief

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's time to buy stock in Ford Motor F .

That’s the verdict of Adam Johnson, author of the Bullseye Brief financial newsletter.

“My target of $23 would represent a doubling from current prices and is quite achievable,” he writes in a recent edition of the report. The stock recently fetched $11.35. Read more here.

Asurnipal, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Tough U.S. Financial Conditions Could Torpedo Wall Street Dealmaking, New Research Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What happens in the U.S. financial system doesn't stay there.

Tough financial conditions tend to roll over into the global economy and disrupt Wall Street's mergers and acquisitions dealmaking machine, new research shows. And it could likely hit the big investment banks hard. Read more here.

Me haridas, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Safe Stocks Underperforming. Yes, We’re In A Bull Market — Expert Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It should be clear that we are in a bull market. At least, that's what one market expert says.

"In bull markets historically, there's less of a need, or no need at all, for the safest stocks," writes technical analyst JC Parets in a recent report from his company AllStarCharts. Technical analysts forecast stock movements by looking at charts, amongst other things. Read more here.