Forbes: Mr. Trump, Here's Why Trade Deficits Are Good

By SIMON CONSTABLE

President Trump seems to have the wrong end of the stick when it comes to trade deficits.

He seems to think big trade deficits mean the U.S. is losing in the game of international trade. But nothing could be further from the truth. They are good: The bigger the better, in fact.

Here's what you need to know:

Forbes: Why You Shouldn't Look Down On Your Depressed Colleagues

By SIMON CONSTABLE

How well do we really know whether someone has a hard life or not? Not very much at all.

That's the first big takeaway from Daphne Merkin's recently published book, This Close To Happy: A Reckoning With Depression. Read more here.

U.S. News: Rocks and Concrete Might Be Good Bets for Investors

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to industrial materials, there isn't much more basic than rocks and concrete. But they might just be a good investment under the Trump administration.

"Infrastructure spending is coming," says Craig Hodges, a portfolio manager with Hodges Funds. "Airports and roads are deplorable – there needs to be major spending on that."

The phrase "major spending" isn't used lightly. The Trump team wants to spend around $1 trillion on fixing worn-out bridges and airports. Read more here.

Forbes: What Is Causing The Spike In Economic Uncertainty? It's Not Trump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Last month a key indicator of economic uncertainty reached yet another record high. Listening to some people you might be forgiven for thinking that the problem is Donald Trump's administration. The data say otherwise. Read more here.

No.3: Tomaas -- Go Your Own Way

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It is something of a truism that there is never a right time to switch career. But it’s hard to imagine a worse time to move into photography than 2007, the very eve of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Still, for Tomaas the time was right. Read more here.

U.S. News: Municipal Bonds Are Less Attractive in 2017

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The new administration seems firmly committed to slashing individual tax rates. That's good, but it raises the issue of whether it still makes sense to invest in municipal bonds.

These securities typically have some favorable tax-related attributes. Interest income from muni bonds is usually exempt from federal taxes and in many cases from state income taxes, also.

Whether you own some of these securities or not, there are some things you need to know. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Mnuchin Must Keep The Dollar Strong

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin must resist calls to weaken the greenback. Despite claims to the contrary, letting the dollar drop would do little to boost the economy and much to harm it. Here's what you need to know.

Barron's: Profiting From Flat Beef Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Beef prices may have taken a tumble last year, but now it looks like they aren’t going anywhere but sideways for a while. That may not sound like the most exciting investment opportunity in the world, but it could be a compelling one if you sell options at levels above and below recent prices.

Read more here.

Forbes: How Alexander Hamilton Can Help Reverse The Mess In the Workplace

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to how people behave in the business world, few things are as disheartening as when individuals with lack of character are installed in management positions.

That's why I found a recently published book on leadership so refreshing. The title in question, The Leadership Secrets of Hamilton: 7 Steps to Revolutionary Leadership from Alexander Hamilton and the Founding fathers by Gordon Leidner, hit the shelves earlier this month. Read more here.

U.S. News: 8 Reasons to Get a Side Gig Now

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you have a full-time job right now, congratulations. The economy is certainly better than it was a few years ago. But now is the time to get a side gig as well.

"The main reason is because there is so little job security today," says Kimberly Palmer, author of "The Economy of You: Discover Your Inner Entrepreneur and Recession-Proof Your Life." 

"If you were to suddenly lose your job, then you have something to fall back on," Palmer says.

Even with the economy in better shape than a few years ago, there are still major firings. U.S. companies announced mass layoffs totaling nearly 527,000 last year, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks the data. Read more here.

TheStreet: Why India's War on Cash Is a Warning to the U.S.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

India's economy crumbled in just weeks, all because of a misguided war on cash. This should be a lesson to anyone pushing for a cashless society.

While Americans were going to the polls on Nov. 8, India's Prime Minister Modi made an announcement that all existing large-denomination bills would need to be deposited in banks in exchange for new bills. The bills in question accounted for almost all the cash in the economy.

The request was startling. The result: India's economy ground to a halt. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Rate ‘Normalization’ and Why Does It Matter?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Increasingly we are hearing market professionals talk about “normalization.” Usually, they are referring to interest rates on government securities, which have been anything but normal over the past few years.

Read more here.

WSJ: ETFs vs. ETNs-- You Better Know the Difference in Risk

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to investment products, sometimes a slight difference in a name means a lot of difference in risk.

A case in point: The difference between an exchange-traded fund and an exchange-traded note.
“ETFs and ETNs are as different as a dog and a cat,” says Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. “And if you get a bad ETN, then it could be a dog.” Read more here.

Anthony Haden-Guest at the Overthrow

By SIMON CONSTABLE

We've done black & white movies, now silent movies. The legendary Anthony Haden-Guest goes in the ring.

Forbes Video: Why This Bull Market Goes Out With A Bang!

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes Video: Latin America-- Submerging Market Or Emerging Market?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It wasn't so long ago that Latin America was an engine of economic growth, selling materials and foodstuffs across the oceans, most notably to Asia. Then China's economy slowed down, so the demand for the resources like iron ore and coal shrank. Then the U.S. dollar rallied and capital fled emerging markets for the U.S.

Unfortunately, the prospects for a return to fast growth are dim, at least for the foreseeable future. Dr. Win Thin, global head of emerging markets at Brown Brothers Harriman, explains why in this video.

Forbes Video: The Worst Biz Mistakes College Grads Make

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Veteran businesswoman Joan Adams details what not to do, as well as what makes sense to do, when entering the work place. Check out what she says in this video.

Forbes Video: King Dollar: How High Can The Greenback Go?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Since May of 2011 the U.S. dollar has been grinding a relentless path higher.

Dr. Win Thin, global head of emerging markets at Brown Brothers Harriman, explains why he sees a further surge in the greenback here.

U.S. News: Why the Bond Market Pullback Shouldn't Worry Investors

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The bond market is in a good news, bad news situation. The bad news is that bond prices are down. That's also the good news.

Here's what long-term investors need to know: stay calm. 

Here's what happened in the fixed-income market: it sank. For instance, the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker: LQD), which holds a basket of high-quality fixed-income securities, retreated 4.7 percent in the six months through Jan. 18, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 5 percent.

"Expectations of higher U.S. economic growth drove expectations of higher inflation, sending interest rates higher," says Vinny Catalano, global macro strategist at Blue Marble Research in New York. Interest rates and bond prices move inversely, so higher interest rates mean lower bond prices. Read more here.

Photo by Sophie Backes on Unsplash

What's It Like For Conservative Women Now Trump Is In The White House?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

 

What's It Like For Conservative Women Now Trump Is In The White House? from Constable Confidential on Vimeo.

Why Small Business Loves Trump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Why Small Business Loves Trump from Constable Confidential on Vimeo.

Is the Trump Administration Doomed to a Recession? History Says Yes

By SIMON CONSTABLE

 

  Is the Trump Administration Doomed to a Recession? 

from Constable Confidential on Vimeo.

WABC Radio: Brexit 1 Meets Brexit 2 -- More Brexits Ahead?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: How Britain Can Beat The Brexit Blues

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here's an idea. For a better future, as the U.K. quits the European Union it should look to its past and re-establish trade links with the old empire. It would almost certainly benefit all concerned. Here are some reasons why:

Forbes: Davos Just Jumped The Shark

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There are many symbols of how much the world changed over the past year. But for me, Davos stands out.

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos now seems as dated as wearing a top hat and frock coat to the office. It has jumped the shark. That's primarily because its image in the public mind jars with a radically changed zeitgeist. Read more here.

U.S. News: There's an Investing Opportunity in India

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While Americans were going to the polls in November something big happened in India. It has presented an unexpected buying opportunity for nimble investors who don't mind taking on some additional risk.

Without warning on Nov. 8, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the existing large denomination rupee bills would be scrapped. The idea was to help eradicate the endemic corruption that plagues the country.

Anyone holding such currency would need to swap the notes for new ones, and if they were exchanging more than a small amount of cash the owners of the currency would pay a tax to the government. Read more here.

Briefings: A Test That Too Many People Fail

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Briefings: The Planning Begins -- For a Currency War

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: Why The Market May Go Ugh Under Trump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here's some bad news for inauguration day. If you are a stock market investor brace yourself for a fall in prices.

Sam Stovall of CFRA Research explains the ins and outs of the matter in this video.

Forbes Video: Why Small Biz Loves Trump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Small business owners were a big part of the reason that Donald Trump won last year's election. They had their reasons. 

Joan Adams of Pierian Consulting explains the detail in this video.

Forbes Video: Is The Trump Admin. Doomed To A Recession? History Says Yes

By SIMON CONSTABLE

No President wants to see a recession on their watch. 

Unfortunately for President-elect Trump the risk of a recession goes with the territory. The first reason should be obvious. In a capitalist society there are business cycles that go down as well as up. The down periods are less long-lasting than the up periods, but still they happen, and it is a risk everyone who occupies the Oval Office takes on.

The second reason is that Republican presidents have a long history of seeing a recession within their first two years in office. 

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research explains the history and why an early recession might be avoided in this video.

Forbes Video: Trump Era -- What's It Like For Conservative Women?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

During last year's campaign there was no shortage of reporting on President-elect Trump's interactions with women. 

Earlier this month I was fortunate enough to meet with long standing conservative, Joan Adams of Pierian Consulting. She explains her thoughts on the matter in this video.

Forbes: Stop Looking For A Job

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you're graduating college or grad school in a few months, then don't bother to get a job. Instead, get multiple gigs. That's the message from Diane Mulcahy, author of the recently published book The Gig Economy.

Earlier this month I had the good fortune to meet with her for breakfast. Her idea is simple: Rather than seek a job, it's far better to find your niche in the so-called gig economy, a.k.a. selling services direct to more than one corporation simultaneously. Read more here.

U.S. News: 7 Tips to Recover From Holiday Overspending

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's that time of year when people realize just how excessively they spent during the holidays. You'll find out precisely the size of your splurge when your credit card bills arrive.

If you went overboard, don't panic. "At some point in our lives we have all overspent – it's just human," says Richard Rosso, director of financial planning of Clarity Financial in Houston. Even the most financially restrained people sometimes break their budget. Anyone who says otherwise, probably isn't being honest. Read more here.

Photo by Taisiia Shestopal on Unsplash

U.S. News: 5 Important Economic Metrics to Know

By SIMON CONSTABLE

With a new administration in the White House, investors will be watching closely to see how the economy does. But which metrics and indicators will help them determine whether the economy is sluggish or hopping along?

The vast array of indicators can be confusing, particularly for the uninitiated. There are many of them, and not all are created equal.

That's why it makes sense to see what the experts watch. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is ‘Price Discovery’ and Why Does It Matter?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes investment professionals use the term “price discovery” to describe how markets work. Here is what it means and why it is relevant.

Price discovery is the mechanism by which competing buyers and sellers determine the price of a security or an asset. Typically, this is done on an exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange. Read more here.

WSJ: Fund Investors Found Commodities Golden in 2016

By SIMON CONSTABLE

U.S. fund investors caught commodities fever in 2016 in the biggest way in six years, as prices of gold, oil and other commodities rallied.

Funds specializing in precious metals were back in fashion, as were those that invest across the commodities spectrum. Funds that hold single commodities other than precious metals were out of fashion. Read more here.

TheStreet: A Gold Price Slump Is Good News, Even If You Own the Metal

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Gold prices have been in a slump these past few months. But investors who own the metal shouldn't be sad.

In fact, quite the opposite. They should be thrilled. Read more here.

U.S. News: Good Outlook for M&A Should Boost Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Just like the 1980s video game Pac-Man, corporations look set to start gobbling up each other this year.

If that happens, and it looks likely to do so, then the stock market should rally. That's because greater numbers of mergers and more acquisitions tend to go hand in hand with gains in the major stock indices, such as the Standard & Poor's 500 index. In short, more deals equal higher stock prices. Read more here.

Forbes: A Simple Way to Help Your College-bound Student Ace Personal Finance

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's normally this time of year that first year undergraduates start to realize that their finances are a mess. At least that's when it dawned on me when I was at college.

Author Kingsley Amis nailed the sentiment when he wrote: "[...] he [Jim] must review his financial situation, see if he could somehow restore it from complete impossibility to its usual level of merely imminent disaster."  That was from Amis' superb novel, Lucky Jim.

Yes, right now many students may feel just like the protagonist of that novel right now -- totally skint, or broke.

The problem has long been simple. We spend a lot of time insisting that students learn algebra and punctuation. But we spend close to zero time teaching basic personal finance.

That's where the O.M.G. Official Money Guide for College Students by Susan Beacham et al., comes in handy. Read more here.

Erdogan Top Ten For Journalists in Turkey

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Top ten list of safe topics for journalists in Turkey:

1. Erdogan is awesome.
2. Err... That's it.
3. ...
4. .
5. .
6. .
7. .
8. .
9. .
10. .

By Secretary of Defense [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: 2016 -- The Beginning Of The End For E.U.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Britain's historic vote last June to leave the European Union marks the beginning of the end for the European Union. It will be a change as monumental as the end of the Soviet Union a quarter century ago. The parallels are eerie. Read more here.

By User:Verdy p, User:-xfi-, User:Paddu, User:Nightstallion, User:Funakoshi, User:Jeltz, User:Dbenbenn, User:Zscout370 - File created by various Wikimedia users (see "Author").File based on the specification given at [1]., Public Domain, Link

TheStreet: What Does 2017 Have in Store? 3 Market Metrics That Will Tell You

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Will 2017 bring investors good returns? History indicates that's likely, but as with all things related to the stock market, nothing is a certainty.

In the first place, a new U.S. president will take office, which generally signals gains for the S&P 500 and the exchange-traded fund that tracks it, the SPDR S&P 500. Read more here.

Forbes: A Vast Fraud In 1870s London Has Much To Teach Us

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Back in the 19th century some American scoundrels mounted a vast fraud on "The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street," as the Bank of England is known. They passed off millions of dollars of fake financial instruments as real to the country's central bank. The rough equivalent now would be to successfully pull off an enormous financial heist on the Federal Reserve. The period in which this happened was also one of great financial innovation and that matter should be notable to investors now. Nicolas Booth ably recounts the tale in his recently published book, Thieves Of Threadneedle Street. Read more here.

U.S. News: Will the Trump Administration Sink Crude Oil Prices Again?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Should oil patch investors be worried that recent gains will soon be undone? Certainly, there is a case to be made, but on balance the major slide from mid-2014 through February is likely over.

The two major issues in the energy market are the recent agreement by OPEC and the desire by the incoming Trump administration to attain energy independence for the U.S. Read more here.

TheStreet: Don't Let Rising Rates Scare You Away From Bonds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

High-quality bonds have taken a beating lately, but they still make sense for the long-term investor. On top of that, the market indicates there is less risk of default now than there was a few months ago.

Here's what happened and why such investments still make sense:

WABC John Batchelor Show: Jobs and Dreams

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Talking with the great John Batchelor about economics and America's forgotten workers.

U.S. News: Key Indicators Show a Robust Economy in 2017

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Great news – the U.S. economy should speed up next year.

If all goes according to plan, that will mean better raises for those with jobs, and more opportunities for those looking for work. There are a couple of potential bumps in the road, but so far they don't point to an imminent problem. Read more here.

Forbes: 6 Reasons Trump Should Abolish Corporate Income Tax

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Corporate taxes are back in the news again this time with Apple Inc. appealing the E.U. tax demand for $14 billion (see report from Reuters.) At issue is the rate of corporate income tax Apple pays in Ireland."Apple's Irish tax bill implied a tax rate of 0.005 percent in 2014," according to European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, the Reuters report states.

Whether the actual rate it pays is that low isn't the major issue. What we do know is that big companies, like Apple, do what they can within the law to avoid paying taxes. In some cases, no taxes are paid, which will no doubt outrage many people.

It shouldn't. The bigger outrage is that we have corporate income tax at all.

The truth is that abolishing it should be at the top of the agenda for president-elect Donald Trump. When that happens we'll all be better off. Here are some reasons why:

Photo by Pepi Stojanovski on Unsplash

TheStreet: What a Stronger Dollar Means for Investments: Good, Bad and Ugly

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The greenback is back.

The U.S currency has climbed 4.1% this year against a basket of global currencies, and nearly four times that much against the British pound alone.

U.S stock markets, in the meantime, have made double-digit gains across the board, but that masks individual winners and losers. Coming out ahead are the consumers who drive the U.S. economy and can get more bank for their buck, as well as the import companies that sell to them. Exporters, on the other hand, may see sales suffer as overseas customers find American-made goods more costly. Read more here.

Photo by Vladimir Solomianyi on Unsplash