TheStreet: Amazon, Microsoft Are Now Last Two in Race for $10B Pentagon Cloud Contract

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A battle royale for a multibillion-dollar government computing contract is now down to its final candidates.

Technology giants Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) are the two remaining companies competing to provide cloud computing services to the Pentagon, according to multiple press reports on Wednesday that cited Defense Department sources. Read more here.

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TheStreet: Netflix Makes Another Move on Hollywood, in Talks to Buy Egyptian Theatre

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

The giant movie streaming service is negotiating to buy an historic movie house on Hollywood Boulevard. Read more here.

TheStreet: JetBlue Set to Announce Trans-Atlantic Service

By SIMON CONSTABLE

An announcement of JetBlue's plans could come as soon as Wednesday, a report says. Read more here.

TheStreet: Uber Seeks Valuation of Up to $100 Billion in IPO - Report

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The ride-sharing giant is set to tap the markets with a $10 billion initial public offering, a report says. Read more here.

The Independent: Constable's Worked Quoted

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A Forbes article from October 2017, was referenced in an April 3 column for The Independent by leadership expert Rita Trehan. 

Great leaders are able to retain support, even in desperate times. “You are a leader if you have followers. It is that simple, and nothing else matters,” the writer and broadcaster Simon Constable wrote for Forbes. “Right now, Theresa May is a leader. She has the support of her parliamentary party.”  

In October 2017, he was correct, but that statement is now unquestionably false.

Read the full column here.

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John Batchelor Show: More Brexit Chaos -- The View from Scotland

By SIMON CONSTABLE

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TheStreet: Why Investors Are Piling Billions Back Into Commodities This Year

By SIMON CONSTABLE

They're back!

Investors piled billions of dollars into specialized commodities funds in the first quarter after going cold on the sector last year, according to new data.

The sudden switch in sentiment comes amid increased chances of a U.S.-China trade deal, expectations of rising inflation and the perceived need by some investors to diversify away from stocks, analysts say. Read more here.

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WSJ: A Millennials ETF Does Well, but Can’t Escape the Stigma

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Millennials are an attractive market for many companies. But a fund that focuses on companies that target millennials hasn’t attracted much interest from investors, despite impressive returns. Read more here.

CasetteVHS96, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What Is ‘Quantamental’ Investing?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors increasingly may hear the term “quantamental” being used by financial professionals.

It refers to an investment strategy that combines a fundamental approach to investing with a quantitative one, hence quantamental, which combines parts of both words. Read more here.

WSJ: Emerging-Markets ETFs Draw Cash

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Investors in exchange-traded funds are more excited about emerging markets than ever.

Globally, ETFs specializing in emerging-markets stocks took in a record amount of net new cash in 2018: $63.1 billion, up from $57.7 billion in 2017, according to figures from financial-data company EPFR. That brought net inflows for the past three calendar years to $142 billion. Through March of this year, investors stuffed a further $15 billion into emerging-markets ETFs. Read more here.

Barron's: April Showers Could Boost Wheat’s Pricing Powers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A new deluge of rain in the Midwest looks set to hit already waterlogged soil, possibly sending wheat prices soaring.

“A $5 target for now is a very realistic target,” says Shawn Hackett, president of Boca Raton–based advisory firm Hackett Financial Advisors. That’s based on the current saturated soil levels and rain forecasts for April, he says. Read more here.

TheStreet: After Crude Oil's Roaring Rip, It May Pay to Be Cautious For Now

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you haven't already placed a bullish bet on oil prices, now may not be the best time to start.

The risks would likely far outweigh the potential rewards, according to a little-watched indicator that rarely gets mentioned outside the trading rooms of Wall Street. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Take The Day Off

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The United Arab Emirates believes that a few extra days off from work may make a world of difference.

The UAE government has standardized the number of public holidays that workers receive, regardless of whether their employer is in the public or private sector. The move is part of the country’s efforts to get its citizens to consider taking jobs in the private sector over traditionally preferred government work. Read more here.

Forbes: What Your Professor Didn't Tell You About Reaching Your Goals

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Harvard University's Todd Rose is back with another must-read book: Dark Horse: Achieving Success Through the Pursuit of Fulfillment. The title, 'Dark Horse,' alludes to the idea that those folks who don't take a standardized career path can achieve just as much success as those who do.

This should matter to anyone pursuing a career in finance or when managing their own money. In simple terms, this book will tell you an important truth. You'll get more success by doing what is right for you as a unique individual than you would by trying to shoehorn yourself into an ill-fitting but predetermined role. Read more here.

Forbes: How Much Did Trump's Trade War Cost You? You'll Never Guess

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The results are in on how much Donald Trump's trade war cost the U.S. in 2018.

Most people who guess would be wildly wrong about the total.

It cost the average American the price of one fancy cappuccino plus a cookie per month during 2018, or $4.28, according to a new report. Read more here.

Forbes: The Other College Finance Scandal

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Is there a simple, workable solution to soaring student loan balances and the spotty quality of college education?

Yes, according to a recently published research paper from The James G, Martin Center for Academic Renewal, titled "Universities Should Invest In Their Students, Not Securities." Read more here.

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Forbes: Why Venezuela's Economic Pain Could Last Through 2025

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Venezuela is heading down precisely the same path as the now-defunct Soviet Union did a quarter-century ago. Put bluntly; the country is likely going further into a deep economic hole where it could remain until the middle of the next decade. Read more here.

Forbes: A 70% Top Rate Of Income Tax Would Crash The Economy, New Research Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A 70% top rate of Federal income tax is a terrible idea.

A century of varying tax regimes along with economic data shows just how bad it could get, if history is any guide.

Despite protestations to the contrary, such a tax rate really isn't a good idea. It could crash the economy, according to soon-to-be-published research. Read more here.

TheStreet: Palladium's Spectacular Rally Isn't Over Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The big run-up in palladium prices isn't over yet.

Double-digit returns are likely in store over the next few months. 

Increased interest in the metal from investors, as well as a relatively tight supply-demand balance, should propel prices even higher over the next half-year. Like gold, palladium is considered a precious metal, but it is overwhelmingly used for industrial purposes. Two-thirds of the production gets used in catalytic converters for automobiles, and another 13% is consumed by the electronics industry. Read more here.

Forbes: How A Chaotic Brexit Has Been Great For Britain's Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Wow! The U.K. parliament has been unproductive since the Brexit referendum in June 2016.

But judging by the economic results perhaps we should want more of the same. Read more here.

TheStreet: Federal Reserve's Soft Stance Should Boost Gold Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Gold is set to surge as long as the Federal Reserve keeps a dovish tone to its policies, which right now looks very likely.

Historically, when the central bank pauses its cycle of increasing the cost of borrowing money, prices for the yellow metal tend to trend higher, according to a recent report.

"[...] after the Fed pauses, historical analysis suggests that gold eventually reacts positively as the pause cycle extends and/or the Fed eases monetary policy," states the March-dated World Gold Council Report. Read more here.

TheStreet: Magellan Midstream Partners Is Worth Buying Again Now

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Smart investors know to be brave when others are wary.

A case in point is Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) , which still hasn't recovered from the 2016 oil market rout. The company, which is a master limited partnership (MLP), makes money from charging oil drillers and others to move crude and refined products, such as gasoline, through its pipeline network. In many ways, the firm is like a toll taker.

Investors should consider buying the stock because it is inexpensive, offers a historically high dividend yield and there's a chance that the company's earnings will get a boost later this year. Read more here.

Barrons: This U.K. Insurance Stock Offers a Hefty Dividend — and Refuge From Brexit

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Brexit-weary investors in European stocks might want to take refuge in a solid stock with limited downside and the potential for lasting income: London–based insurer Phoenix Group Holdings. The firm makes its money by buying up closed lines of pensions and life insurance at a discount and then winding down the books of business. An annuity provider, for example, might have stopped selling a product to new customers but needs to service existing customers. Read more here.

TheStreet: Pioneer Natural Resources Is Headed Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The Permian Basin is getting hot fast with oil companies.

The best way for investors to profit from the trend is by investing in shares of Pioneer Natural Resources Company. 

The firm is a pure play on the oil-rich Permian rock formation in the southwest U.S., has low costs of production, and is set to expand production dramatically this year and next. All of which should lead to the stock price soaring around 40% from its recent levels, analysts say. Read more here.

Dr. Ruth talks Sex with Simon

Dr. Ruth Westheimer

Photo by Simon Speed from a work by Apavlo at en.wikipedia, 

Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Korn Ferry: The Never-Ending ‘Crisis’

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Nearly two years running and still no answer.

On Tuesday, the UK Parliament rejected the latest Brexit offer Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated, setting up votes later in the week on whether the nation should leave the European Union without any agreements over trade and immigration or delay leaving. Read more here.

TheStreet: Why It's A Good Time to Invest in Copper

By SIMON CONSTABLE

After months in the doldrums, copper prices look set to surge once again.

There are two broad reasons. First is that there are dwindling supplies of the metal, which among other things gets used for electrical wiring. The second is that China's economy likely will not deteriorate much more, analysts say. Read more here.

Forbes: Doomed Venezuela-- This One Number Shows Just How Bad It Is

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Venezuela is in a hole, that's for sure. But how deep the problem runs has been something of a mystery. That is until now.

It's not just bad: It is monstrous. Read more here.

Lance Roberts Show: Why The Difference Between Success and Failure is Only What You've Learned

Listen here.

TheStreet: Chevron-- Why Now Is the Time to Buy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's time to buy some stock in Chevron Corporation.

There are three broad reasons. The first is that oil prices look set to surge in the coming months. Secondly, the shares are cheap compared to the company's peers. And lastly, the firm's expansion plans should continue to add profitability, even if energy prices dip. Read more here.

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Lance Roberts Show: Why Economic Reality Isn't About What You Want, Pt-3

Lance Roberts Show: Why Theresa May is Like Monty Python, Pt-2

Lance Roberts Show: Don't Do Stupid Things, Pt-1

Click here to watch.

TheStreet: Here's Why Oil Prices Are Going Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A largely unanticipated cut in oil supplies will send prices for crude oil surging this year. And that will also help oil stocks break out of their extended period of underperformance. 

  

Investors with an appetite for risk should consider buying the United States Brent Oil exchange-traded fund, which tracks the price of Brent crude oil. Or try investing in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF which tracks stocks of major oil producers. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Implied Earnings Growth?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors may start hearing more about “implied earnings growth.” It is a metric that can help people make investment decisions, and it is especially relevant during times of market tumult when stocks frequently get mispriced.

Whenever analysts value securities, they make assumptions about the growth of the company. Faster-growing firms generally warrant higher valuations than those likely to see only modest profit increases, other things being equal. Read more here.

WSJ: Commodities Outlook Remains Rocky

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Commodities-focused funds took a beating in the last three months of 2018 as worries over a slowing economy sent prices for energy and materials plunging.

While there has been a modest rebound early this year, analysts aren’t optimistic for a return to boom times soon. Read more here.

Grain Silos

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WSJ: British Stock Investors Go ‘on Strike’ Ahead of Brexit

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Individual investors in the U.K. soured on fund investments in a big way in 2018, and analysts say nervousness over Brexit was mostly to blame.

The amount of money flowing into retail investment funds in the U.K. plummeted more than 85% last year to £7.2 billion (about $9.2 billion) from £48.5 billion the year before, according to recently published data from the Investment Association, a London-based fund-management trade body. Last year’s total was well below the £22.3 billion average over the past decade, the data show. Read more here.

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WSJ: In a Down Market, ETFs Could Make Things Even Worse

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s a potential problem lurking in the financial markets, and it is partly a result of exchange-traded funds.

While ETFs have been widely praised for lowering trading costs, and have soared in popularity with investors, there have been concerns dating back at least to 2011 that the profusion of ETFs based on the same or similar stocks makes markets more vulnerable in times of volatility. Read more here.

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Barron's: Ferrari’s Stock Could Keep Speeding Ahead

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While many automobile makers are stuck in second gear, Italy’s Ferrari is speeding ahead.

The recent improvements in the luxury-car maker’s operating performance will probably continue, the stock looks cheap, and the company just gave an optimistic outlook for this year. Read more here.

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Forbes: The World Has Changed And Leaders Need To Do So Too

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Savvy investors don't spend most of their time trading. They spend their time reading to stay informed about a fast-changing world.

If you don't already do so, try doing the same this year.

A great place to start is the recently published The Leadership Lab: Understanding Leadership in the 21st Century, by Chris Lewis and Pippa Malmgren. Lewis (whom I've met) is a best-selling author and Malmgren (whom I also know) is a former economic advisor to President George W Bush. Read more here.

Forbes: Economic Disaster Threatens Algeria

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Things are bad in Algeria, and they will likely get far worse.

"[...] crunch point is approaching fast," states a recent report from London-based financial analysis firm Capital Economics.

The problems stem from a multitude of factors including a weak oil price and rotten economic policies, which are both exacerbated by recent mass protests.

If things don't change soon, then expect higher inflation, skyrocketing unemployment, and the likelihood of the government running out of cash within a few years, analysts say. In other words, Algeria is heading for something close to an economic Armageddon. Read more here.

Forbes: Norway Makes Multi-billion Dollar Bet On Britain's Economy, And You Should Follow Suit

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Norway has placed a bet on Britain totaling tens of billions of dollars, even though no Brexit deal has been signed with the European Union.

Savvy investors should follow suit by investing in British stocks such as those in the FTSE 100 index, which tracks the largest public companies in the UK. Read more here.

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TheStreet: How Gold Mining Merger Mania Is Here to Stay

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The merger mania sweeping the gold mining sector isn't a flash in the pan - it's likely just begun.

Unless these companies want to shrink, they must continue to gobble each other up.

"There is going to be a new wave of M&A as a way to grow reserves especially because organic growth is so hard to come by," said Matthew Miller, a Denver-based equity research analyst at financial research firm CFRA. Read more here.

Forbes: The Most Innovative U.S Tech Entrepreneurs Are Foreign

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some people won't like this.

Immigrant technology wizards are the secret sauce behind America's overwhelming lead in the high-tech industry.

These Brainiac non-natives aren't better by a small margin. They win hands down when it comes to inventing things compared to the U.S. peers, according to recent research. Read more here.

Forbes: Multi-billion Dollar Debt Crisis Looms For Dubai

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors in the Persian Gulf need to watch out.

A debt-fueled crisis is headed to Dubai, the trading hub of the United Arab Emirates.

"[A] decade after the [E]mirates' crisis, its debt problems are not over," states a recent report from London-based financial firm Capital Economics.

In fact, they may just be beginning. Read more here.

TheStreet: Why the British Pound Is Set for a Big Move

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The British pound looks set to break out soon. The only question is whether it soars or crashes.

Either way, savvy investors could profit by purchasing options on exchange-traded funds.

Range-Bound Pound

For the last six months, the value of the pound has fetched between $1.26 and $1.32, according to data from Bloomberg. It was recently trading just under $1.32. Read more here.

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Barron's: Buy U.K. Baker’s Vegan-Sausage Roll, Sell the Stock

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The Brits have gone crazy for Greggs, a chain of 1,700 or so bakery shops, in part because of its wildly popular new vegan-sausage roll. 

Unfortunately, investors have been gobbling up the stock (ticker: GRG.UK), which has jumped 68% in the six months to Thursday versus losses of 5.1% for the FTSE 100 index, the benchmark for the 100 largest listed stocks in the United Kingdom. It looks like the shares have gotten ahead of the sausage, and shareholders should consider taking profits. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: Corbyn's Antisemitism Plunges Labour Into A Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

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TheStreet: Gold Rises as Investors Panic and Pile Into Bullion

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Gold prices were rising again as scared investors seek refuge from paltry bonds yields.
The metal recently fetched $1,344 a troy ounce, a level it hadn't seen since April 2018, or 10 months ago, according to data from Bloomberg. Its also rallied more than 14% since the low of $1,174 in August. The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, which holds bars of solid bullion, performed similarly. Read more here.

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Korn Ferry: Brexit's $1 Billion Weekly Price Tag

Brexit has become a nail-biting game of high-stakes poker, and it might be costing Britain big-time.

While the deadline for Britain and the European Union to reach a trade deal is inching dangerously close to the March 29 “leave” date, the costs to the British economy are rising. Already the tab is expanding at blistering rate: £800 million ($1 billion) a week, according to Bank of England estimates. In addition, the United Kingdom’s economy is slowing. It grew at a paltry 1.3% annualized rate in the latest reading, the slowest pace since 2012, according to government data. Read more here.