Barrons: Why Fertilizer Prices Remain Stubbornly High

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here's a puzzle: How is it that fertilizer prices are so stubbornly high while the production cost has plunged?

The answer lies in the Corn Belt—and it will boost fertilizer equities for the foreseeable future.

Anhydrous ammonia, a nitrogen-based plant food, now sells for nearly $700 a ton. That's off from the highs of $800 late last year. But the biggest variable cost in making fertilizer, natural gas, has seen its price collapse. It's off over half from $4.50 a million British thermal units in mid-2011. Natural gas for May delivery closed at $1.927 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday, down 2.7% for the week. See the original post here.

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Constable: Stimulus Not the Solution to Jobs Bust

FRIDAY’S DISAPPOINTING JOBS NUMBERS SHOULD HAVE THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS PANICKED. THE PROBLEM IS THAT OUR LEADERS ARE LIKELY TO DO EXACTLY THE WRONG THING TO FIX THINGS. THEY’LL PROBABLY WANT TO SPEND MORE GOVERNMENT MONEY.

THE PROBLEM EVERYONE SEES IS THAT THE 120,000 JOBS CREATED IN THE U.S. DURING MARCH IS JUST WOEFULLY INADEQUATE TO KEEP UP WITH POPULATION GROWTH, LET ALONE MAKE A DENT IN THE BACKLOG OF THE MILLIONS OF LONG TERM UNEMPLOYED.

THE SOLUTION THE GOVERNMENT OPTED FOR IN THE DEPTHS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS WAS MASSIVE GOVERNMENT STIMULUS AND BAILOUTS OF NEAR-DEAD COMPANIES. IT WAS AT A COST OF HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

BUT NEW RESEARCH SHOWS THAT THIS SORT OF MASS SPENDING DOES LITTLE TO HELP.

A PAPER PUBLISHED IN THIS MONTH FROM THE MERCATUS CENTER AT GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY STATES:  “…the data exhibit no evidence of stimulus spending having any effect on economic growth.’

IN FACT THE AUTHORS GO EVEN FURTHER, THEY SAY THE EFFECT OF STIMULUS LOOKING OVER A VARIETY OF TIME HORIZONS IS “ALWAYS STATISTICALLY ZERO.”

OR PUT ANOTHER WAY, THAT’S HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WASTED.

I HOPE SENSE PREVAILS ENOUGH IN CONGRESS TO KEEP THE CHECK BOOK CLOSED, BUT I FEAR NOT.

I’M SIMON CONSTABLE

WSJ: Why Your Mutual Funds Won't Beat the Market

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Good news: The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up 12.6% (including dividends) for the year, one of the best first quarters in a long, long time. Many stock analysts are projecting a banner year for stocks, as investors pile into the market to counter today's low interest rates and fears that bond prices may be soon tumbling.

 Bad news: Some of the biggest funds just aren't keeping up. The $59 billion large-cap American Funds Investment Co. of America Fund (AIVSX) was up 11% for the quarter. The story's similar for the $54 billion American Funds Washington Mutual (AWSHX), up just 7.7%, and the $37 billion Vanguard Windsor II fund (VWNFX), up 12.4%. See original post here.

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WSJ: What Short Interest Means to You

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Short sellers do things differently. Unlike most investors, they want to see the securities they've selected decline in value.

Specifically, they borrow stocks or bonds and sell them, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price for profit. The short-seller maxim is "sell high, buy low." See the original here.

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NBR: Greeks Still Face Uphill Struggle

NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT MARCH 15


SEE THE VIDEO HERE.

TODAY GREECE GOT A BIG NOD FOR ITS LATEST BAILOUT.
THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APPROVED ITS PART OF A 130 BILLION
EURO LOAN, THE BULK OF WHICH IS COMING FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION.

SO IS GRRECE OUT OF THE WOODS AND CAN WE REST EASY THAT THE CRISIS
WON’T RETURN TO GIVE THE MARKETS THE JITTERS AGAIN?

WELL IN A WORD – NO

EVEN THE IMF SAYS SO.

“THERE IS NO WIGGLE ROOM ON THE GREEK ECONOMIC PORGRAM,” IMF STAFF WARN.

WHAT THAT MEANS IN ENGLISH IS THAT GREECE IS STILL BROKE AND ITS
GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO HAVE TO REALLY KNUCKLE DOWN WITH IMPLEMENTING
ITS SPENDING CUTS

ADD TO THAT SOCIAL PROBLEMS WE KEEP SEEING ACROSS THE ADRIATIC COUNTRY
AND ITS NOT DIFFICULT TO ENVISION THE CRISIS RETURNING IN SHORT ORDER
AND WITH IT A POSSIBLE SCARY RIDE FOR THE US STOCK MARKET. That’s WHAT
MOST OBSERVERS ARE SAYING, BUT I’D GO FURTHER AND SAY THERE IS STILL A
BIG CHANCE GREECE LEAVES THE EURO, THE SINGLE EUROPEAN CURRENCY.

AND BELIEVE ME WHEN THAT HAPPENS INVESTORS WILL HAVE FEW PLACES TO HIDE

I’M SIMON CONSTABLE FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

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Barron's: Palladium Is Set to Soar

Tight supply, and continued demand for growing car and truck markets, should keep expanding the metal's price.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here's something to put a shine in your portfolio: Palladium, the often-overshadowed cousin of the precious metal platinum, is poised to gleam brilliantly.

Thanks to both rising demand and sketchy supply, some analysts are looking for a 20% jump in futures prices this year, with continued growth through 2014. Link to Barrons.com.

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WSJ: Six Ways to Squeeze Money From Your Boss

By SIMON CONSTABLE

First, the bad news: For most workers, fat salary hikes won't happen this year. The economy's still too weak.

Now, the good news: You can get other financial goodies from your employer, if you know how.

Most people are unaware that corporations are riddled with seams of gold. Here's a guide to finding the buried treasure. The specifics will be different for each company, but this should get you close enough to mine some dollars.

1 Your 401(k) plan.

To the extent you can afford to do so, put enough money in your 401(k) retirement plan to collect the entire company match.

A lot of data suggest people don't do that, says Mark Schmit, vice president of research at the Society for Human Resource Management in Alexandria, Va. "If you don't take advantage of it, you are leaving money on the table."

It can be like getting an extra 3% or 4% raise, on top of any annual salary increase. For more read here.

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