TheStreet: Watch Grain Markets and Monsanto for Price Gains From Ukraine Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The world's eyes are yet again on Ukraine, as fighting in eastern provinces intensifies and Russian and U.S. military forces stare each other down in the Black Sea. 

So what is an investor to do? Start by forgetting Ukraine's natural gas pipeline to Europe: The effects of the conflict will more likely play out in the world grain markets.

First, the gas worries, which may be little more than hot air. Yes, the European Union does import a lot of gas from Russia, but less than previously. At year-end the total was around 9 billion cubic feet a day down from close to 14 billion at the beginning of 2011, according to estimates from the Energy Policy Research Foundation.

See full story here.

TheStreet: How 'Sin Stocks' Keep Investors Safe From Market Swings

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It's time to grab the guns, the booze and the cigarettes. 

Even though such things might be called vices, apparently stocks in their purveyors are very good for your portfolio. In fact, they may even be better for your investment regimen than so-called socially responsible investments, or SRIs, according to a recent unpublished working paper by two academics.

For more click here.

Forbes: 5 Reasons Silicon Valley Should Embrace Performance Pay, Not Shun It

By SIMON CONSTABLE

One of the shining lights of the American economy may have just taken a wrong turn that will do it few favors.

Silicon Valley, birthplace to some of the most amazing technical innovation in the world, is now embracing the idea of so-called “lockstep salaries,” according to a story on TechCrunch. It’s bad news if it takes hold in more than a modest way.

Read more here.

Forbes: 2015 Layoff Survival Guide

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bad news: Sooner or later you will be laid off. I was recently and it wasn’t for the first time.
Good news: I can help you see it coming and then hopefully you can make out like a bandit.
Trust me, I used to be a hatchet man, strategically cutting jobs around the globe. I know how this works. I helped eliminate a total of 25,000 positions.

Think it won’t happen to you, just look at some of the headlines from earlier this month. Managers shed workers like cats shed their coats in spring: Read more here.

TheStreet: Mining Stocks May Be Golden Again -- and You Probably Don’t Have Enough

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Is it time to jump back into diversified mining stocks? Probably yes, if you are a long-term investor. 

That is the view of veteran mutual fund manager Joe Wickwire. 

Wickwire, who among other responsibilities manages the $300 million Fidelity Global Commodity Stock Fund (FFGCX), and the $1.1 billion Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX), says that there are two broad reasons that now could be the time to jump. The first is that the end of the commodities boom, or supercycle, seems to have alerted mining company managers to the need to be selective in how they produce and allocate capital. Eventually, he says, that should lead to supply cuts and better stock returns.

Read more here.

WSJ: What Does Overweight Mean?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When you hear market strategists use the words “underweight” and “overweight,” what exactly do they mean?

Those terms tell you how a portfolio manager is investing compared with a benchmark, says Bob Stammers, director of investor education at the CFA Institute. They can apply to individual investors, too. For many small investors, a rule of thumb is to put 60% of a portfolio in stocks. More than 60% is overweight; less than that is underweight.

Weightings differ depending on goals and risk tolerance. A higher stock allocation is typical for those willing to endure swings in prices. See original story here.

Photo by Piret Ilver on Unsplash

WSJ: Timing Skill Missing from Almost All Multi-Asset Mutual Funds -- Study

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Everybody knows that over time, most active fund managers fail to beat the returns of the broader stock market. Well, when it comes to multiasset mutual funds—which attempt to zoom in and out of asset classes with deft timing—managers’ performance is especially bad.

Few managers of multiasset funds have any meaningful market-timing skill, according to research from academics at City University London’s Cass Business School and University College Cork in Ireland.

The study shows the lack of ability is particularly acute where it is needed most: in timing the stock market, where returns are more volatile but generally higher than in bonds. It is a worrying finding given that the only real reason to buy such funds is the asset-changing ability of the managers. Correct choice of asset allocation is said to account for 90% of returns.

“The managers were not very good at getting out of other asset classes and into equities,” says the lead researcher on the project, Prof. Andrew Clare, a director at the Center for Asset Management Research at Cass.

How bad is it?

Read more here.