Thursday, June 9, 2016

TheStreet: Investors Far Gloomier Than Facts Justify

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Apparently we are a bunch of scaredy cats when it comes to the stock market.

Investor expectations of another 1987-style crash aren't just a little bit off. They are way too pessimistic when compared with reality of historical events. And those concerns are exacerbated by news reports of poor market performance, according to a recent study. Read more here.

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

U.S. News: Emerging Markets Aren't Submerging Any More

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Last year, emerging markets became submerging markets as the nosedive in the commodities complex hit resource-based economies hard.

But lately, at least part of the resources sector seems to be showing signs of life. Does that mean the emerging market world is out of the woods? The answer is it very much depends on the economy in question. Read more here.

Photo by Jason Blackeye on Unsplash

Monday, June 6, 2016

Forbes Video: Have Emerging Markets Stopped Submerging?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Over the past few years the world of emerging markets (EM) has mostly been world of hurt in the wake of the commodity market meltdown.

The question is whether that decline, which adversely affected many resource heavy economies, is over. Or put another way, if it's true that "What goes up must come down," then can we rely on the reverse: "what goes down may rebound?"

The idea that it should work both ways is based on something called "mean reversion" in investing returns. If one investing sector, or asset class, has over performed for a while, we can expect that eventually it will underperform. Likewise, those sectors that underperform, like EM, shall eventually outperform. That's the idea anyway.

Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners explains his thoughts in this video.

WSJ: The CEO at the Center of a Controversial 1993 Commodity Hedge

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If there is one thing Heinz Schimmelbusch has experience with, it’s commodity hedging and risk management. From 1989 to 1993, he was chief executive of German-based industrial conglomerate Metallgesellschaft. Read more here.

WSJ: A Bold Approach in Commodities Paid Off

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The chief executive officer of Amsterdam materials company AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV, Heinz Schimmelbusch, once at the center of a controversial derivatives trade that cost a staggering $1.3 billion (see related article), is back and bucking commodities-market trends.
While other companies have suffered stock drops and cut dividends, AMG shares have soared (up 33.5% in 2015) and the firm paid its first dividend last year. Shares of rivals such as Rio Tinto PLC, Alcoa Inc. and Glencore PLC, meanwhile, were hammered. Read more here.

WSJ: Why Currency Wars Are So Destructive

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When economies start to flag, governments will occasionally start what is known as a currency war. It is important that investors understand what the term means and why it can be so destructive to the countries involved.

Such conflicts start when one country decides to lower the value of its currency to increase its exports. Exports become cheaper for foreign buyers whose currency doesn’t deflate. Read more here.

PaasikiviCC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons



Friday, June 3, 2016

Forbes Video: Steer Clear Of U.S. Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE
Since the early part of 2009 U.S. stocks have rallied, and that success may lead some investors to cast away their concerns about the market and fully invest. While staying invested over a long period of time is usually a good thing, buying at the top and selling at the bottom are often exactly what small investors do, very much to their detriment.
Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, says there may be better alternatives to U.S. stocks. He explains his thoughts in this video.
One of the things to consider for any investor is to maintain a balanced portfolio of domestic and foreign stocks as well as fixed income, alternative assets and a small amount of cash.