By SIMON CONSTABLE
Talking economics with the awesome Frank Morano on the John Gambling Show
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
U.S. News: Brazil Set to Escape Its Economic Malaise
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Not all of the recent drama in Brazil was caused by U.S. Olympic swimmer Ryan Lochte, who got into trouble after claiming he was held up at gunpoint. Actually, for investors, the main spectacle in Latin America's largest economy was somewhere quite different: the government.
In late August, long after the athletes returned to their home countries, Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff was impeached following a lengthy process.
The good news, unless you are Rouseff, is that the political commotion may augur in a period of economic reform that could move more rapidly than previously expected. Investors have already been betting on that, and there will likely be more gains ahead. Read more here.
Not all of the recent drama in Brazil was caused by U.S. Olympic swimmer Ryan Lochte, who got into trouble after claiming he was held up at gunpoint. Actually, for investors, the main spectacle in Latin America's largest economy was somewhere quite different: the government.
In late August, long after the athletes returned to their home countries, Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff was impeached following a lengthy process.
The good news, unless you are Rouseff, is that the political commotion may augur in a period of economic reform that could move more rapidly than previously expected. Investors have already been betting on that, and there will likely be more gains ahead. Read more here.
Photo by Matheus Câmara da Silva on Unsplash
Monday, September 12, 2016
WSJ: Are Investors More or Less Willing to Take on Risk After a Big Money Loss?
By SIMON CONSTABLE
After a big financial loss, are people going to be more or less willing to take a big risk?
For years, two seemingly contradictory theories have come down on either side of that question. A new analysis, however, suggests that perhaps there is no contradiction after all. The right answer, this analysis suggests, is: It depends.
To back up, on one side of this debate has been the theory that a previous loss can lead to increased risk taking. “A person who hasn’t made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise,” psychologist Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate, and Amos Tversky wrote in a 1979 paper. Read more here.
After a big financial loss, are people going to be more or less willing to take a big risk?
For years, two seemingly contradictory theories have come down on either side of that question. A new analysis, however, suggests that perhaps there is no contradiction after all. The right answer, this analysis suggests, is: It depends.
To back up, on one side of this debate has been the theory that a previous loss can lead to increased risk taking. “A person who hasn’t made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise,” psychologist Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate, and Amos Tversky wrote in a 1979 paper. Read more here.
Saturday, September 10, 2016
John Batchelor Show: Peter Thiel, Economics
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Recent appearance on the John Batchelor Show discussing Peter Thiel, investing, economics.
Recent appearance on the John Batchelor Show discussing Peter Thiel, investing, economics.
Friday, September 9, 2016
TheStreet: How Wells Fargo Scam May Shake the Wheels Off the Banking Industry
By SIMON CONSTABLE
A spectacular scam in which employees of Wells Fargo (WFC) opened unauthorized customer accounts in order to earn bigger bonuses may shake the wheels off not only the bank's legendary stagecoach, but the entire industry.
The fate of the 160-year-old company itself is of only secondary interest to me, however. Many other businesses have weathered comparable scandals and bounced back relatively painlessly.
The real problem is that the malfeasance at the bank may lead to the entire industry being relegated further into a minor economic role. Read more here.
Thursday, September 8, 2016
Forbes Video: Is A Market Crash Imminent?
By SIMON CONSTABLE
When stocks fail to pull back in quite a while, then investors should start to get worried about whether the gains are sustainable.
In the rawest terms, the question is this: Are we headed for a crash? Will be see a repeat of 1987 when stocks plunged around the world in minutes? Will we see a slower slide like that after the tech bubble of the late 1990s? You get the idea.
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
TheStreet: Below Zero -- The Negative Interest Rates Campaign You May Have Missed
By SIMON CONSTABLE
If you think your bank savings earn a measly return now, just wait: It could get even worse.
A coordinated campaign to make negative interest rates a reality in America just got launched -- at least, it looks that way. (See other stories in the Below Zero series for a thorough explanation of negative interest rates and the implications.) Read more here.
If you think your bank savings earn a measly return now, just wait: It could get even worse.
A coordinated campaign to make negative interest rates a reality in America just got launched -- at least, it looks that way. (See other stories in the Below Zero series for a thorough explanation of negative interest rates and the implications.) Read more here.
Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash
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