Forbes: Trump's Economy Still Lags That Of Clinton And Bush

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When the first read on second-quarter U.S. GDP data gets released Friday, its expected to be good enough to grab some big headlines.

But no one is expecting the growth to be anywhere near as good as things got in the years under President Bill Clinton or those of President George W Bush. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Globalization Ain't Dead Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Claims that the era of free trade is on its last legs are much exaggerated.

It is nowhere near dead. Not by a long shot.

Assurances that the U.S. has embarked on a trade war that will collapse the world economy similarly grasp at a phantom menace.

Who knows for sure why people say such things, but we can make educated guesses.

A couple of probable reasons stand out as feasible. First, it may be because such scaremongers are too focused on the recent spats between the U.S. and China, plus the U.S. and the European Union. Alternatively, it could be that they aren’t aware of how the current tariffs fit into the move towards increasingly freer trade over the last two centuries. Read more here.

Forbes: Could Small Caps Help Investors Beat A Trade War?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Talk of a trade war has been increasingly ubiquitous for the past few months, whether it be between the U.S. and either China or the U.S. and the European Union.

But that hasn't stopped investors piling into U.S. assets including greenbacks and stocks.

Read more here.

PJ Media: Rising Energy Prices Tells Us That the World Will Shun Dealing with Iran

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

The crude oil market has a blunt message for the world.

U.S. sanctions on Iran will bite hard and so remove a chunk of crude oil supply from the global market. That’s why prices for this energy have rallied so much lately.

The price for light sweet crude has rallied almost 10 percent over the past few weeks to $73.63 a barrel recently from $67.25 at the beginning of May, according to data from Bloomberg.

In early May the Trump administration signaled an end to U.S. participation in the so-called Iran nuclear deal and would, therefore, begin to impose sanctions on the country. The Obama-era agreement had allowed Iran to trade oil and other goods in exchange for not developing nuclear weapons. Read more here.

Photo by Delfino Barboza on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: Brexit Break-Ups

In any negotiation, it’s assumed that each side has a common objective. But when it comes to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, that may not be the case.

Over the weekend Prime Minister Theresa May unveiled her Brexit plan. But by Monday two pro-Brexit members of May’s Cabinet had quit in protest. Other ministers may follow suit, and some experts are wondering whether May herself will leave soon. Read more here.

WSJ: Bottom-Up vs. Top-down

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes you’ll see investment research that discusses so-called top-down and bottom-up estimates of how much money the companies in the S&P 500 index will earn overall.

The differences can sometimes be meaningful. Read more here.

Rob Young from United Kingdom, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What's Driving the Bank Stocks?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bank stocks in recent years have appreciated along with a rise in long-term interest rates, outperforming the broader market over much of that time. Can investors count on this trend continuing, as long as the 10-year yield is rising?

Not necessarily, analysts say, pointing out that long-term interest rates are just one of several factors that drive bank profitability. Read more here.

Photo by Eduardo Soares on Unsplash