Constable Confidential

Monday, May 29, 2023

Forbes.com: Scotland’s Latest Attempt To Kill Its Own Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Scotland’s latest bizarre economic policy is about to run headlong into common sense. The result will be a disaster for Edinburgh’s famed International Festival, which is due to kick off, as usual, this August.

The Festival sold a little more than 3 million tickets in 2019, pulling in an estimated 450,000 visitors to Scotland’s capital city.

The 2020 pandemic meant there was no festival that year. But when it resumed in 2022, ticket sales sank by almost a third to 2.2 million.

But so much for the rebound. This year is likely to see another drop because of a strange and self-defeating housing regulation that got passed by the Scottish parliament in 2022. Read more here.

marsupium photography, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Still No Recession: Wall Street Gurus Should Be Ashamed

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Where’s the imminent recession we were promised a year ago?

Nowhere apparently, but hardly anyone has admitted they were wrong. And that includes Wall Street gurus.

Last June, the finance world was abuzz with pledges that the U.S. economy was barely a hare’s whisker from diving into a recession. Back then, I wrote a column for Time magazine that clearly showed no signs of an imminent recession.

There are still few signs that the economy will contract in the weeks ahead. In fact, the opposite seems true. Read more here.

Carol M. Highsmith , Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: U.S. Debt Ceiling Theater Of The Absurd Now Almost Over

By SIMON CONSTABLE

At last, the debt ceiling debacle looks close to being over at least until the next time.

It’s the worst political theatre possible, and it happens time after time after time.

Yet somehow, much of the media always goes for the most unlikely result. Specifically, the message is simple:

Failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling will result in America’s first default ever on its debt — the best debt in the world, apparently — and that event will quickly knock the dollar off its high pedestal and quickly pauperize Americans—end of story. Read more here.

The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Buy Ford Motor, Says Bullseye Brief

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's time to buy stock in Ford Motor F .

That’s the verdict of Adam Johnson, author of the Bullseye Brief financial newsletter.

“My target of $23 would represent a doubling from current prices and is quite achievable,” he writes in a recent edition of the report. The stock recently fetched $11.35. Read more here.

Asurnipal, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Tough U.S. Financial Conditions Could Torpedo Wall Street Dealmaking, New Research Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What happens in the U.S. financial system doesn't stay there.

Tough financial conditions tend to roll over into the global economy and disrupt Wall Street's mergers and acquisitions dealmaking machine, new research shows. And it could likely hit the big investment banks hard. Read more here.

Me haridas, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Safe Stocks Underperforming. Yes, We’re In A Bull Market — Expert Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It should be clear that we are in a bull market. At least, that's what one market expert says.

"In bull markets historically, there's less of a need, or no need at all, for the safest stocks," writes technical analyst JC Parets in a recent report from his company AllStarCharts. Technical analysts forecast stock movements by looking at charts, amongst other things. Read more here.