Commodities, AI Demand, and UK Political Turmoil. Guest: @RealConstable

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

 Constable reported on market trends with energy prices significantly down but metals like copper and steel consistently higher, reflecting strong demand particularly for AI data.

Simon Constable reported on market trends with energy prices significantly down, but metals like copper and steel consistently higher, reflecting strong demand particularly for AI data center construction. 

Meanwhile, future chocolate prices are projected to rise due to "transcontinental climate change" linking Amazon deforestation to political instability in major cocoa regions like the DRC. 

And in UK politics, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces constant internal revolts and distrust due to policy flip-flops, tax increases, and failure to solve the immigration problem.

LISTEN HERE.

https://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2007663142, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

@RealConstable and @BatchelorShow analyze rare earth markets, noting China’s dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors.

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up

LISTEN HERE.

Christopher Macsurak, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

@RealConstable and @BatchelorShow analyze rare earth markets, noting China’s dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up. Listen here.

Tmy350, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron’s: Europe Is Spending Big on Defense. Rheinmetall Benefits

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Germany-based defense company Rheinmetall’s stock has soared over the past few years and appears pricey. At the same time, investors seem to be optimistic for a further rally over the next 12 months. Read more here.

Rheinmetall Defence, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Press enter or click to view image in full size

WSJ: Financial Flashback -- 30 YEARS AGO: Dow 5000

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average standing today around 47000, it’s hard to get excited for every 1,000-point milestone. But 30 years ago was a different time for the Dow.

After passing the 4000 threshold in February 1995, the Dow industrials took only nine months to pass and close above 5000 — bringing cheers from the New York Stock Exchange floor.

As with many market parties, this one was started in large part by the Federal Reserve. After raising interest rates in 1994, the central bank began cutting them in July 1995 amid a belief that it had guided the economy to a “soft landing.” The result was that bond volatility fell, and stocks rallied.

“Typically, what goes down comes up,” says David Salem, a portfolio manager at Hedgeye Asset Management.

Market strategists at the time — pointing to falling interest rates, rising productivity and tame inflation — saw little reason for the party to end. Spectacular market gains would follow.

And while markets don’t celebrate like they used to, Salem sees some parallels between markets then and now. After raising rates to beat back inflation in 2022–23, the Fed began cutting rates last year and the Dow has surged.

 READ MORE HERE

Briefings Magazine: ‘It’s called commodity nationalism.’ The Global Race for Minerals

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For much of the post-WWII period, buying minerals such as copper, coal, or iron ore was simply a matter of money: Did you have it or not? If your company needed to purchase copper ore, it could get it from Chile, among other places. Likewise, the need for cobalt could be sated with supplies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, or Australia. It more or less didn’t matter which country was selling the product. But that practice of unfettered trade seems to be disappearing, fast — and it has nothing to do with the great tariff wars of 2025. Rather, it comes down to worries about national security.

Currently, there’s a global race to secure minerals and other commodities. To ensure their own growth, as well as protect and defend themselves, countries around the world want access to vital materials. “It’s called commodity nationalism,” says Pete Earle, director of economics and economic freedom at the American Institute for Economic Research. “Control over oil and minerals is becoming more important.”

It was COVID-era changes in international trade that first put the whole issue of supply chains into focus, says Bill Stone, chief investment officer and managing principal at the Glenview Trust Company in Louisville, Kentucky. That period highlighted how susceptible global trade was to interruptions, accidental or otherwise. “When the stakes get big enough, countries will hold back from selling precious materials to other countries,” he says. “The goal is to find their vulnerabilities.” READ MORE HERE.

FOX Biz: Macron scrambles to restore stability, reappoints ex-PM amid France’s budget crisis: Déjà vu all over again as new French PM back in the saddle

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Last Monday, France had a déjà vu moment with yet another French prime minister leaving the job. In this case, it was Sébastien Lecornu, who spent a mere 27 days in the role — a record low since 1958. By late Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron had reinstated Lecornu.

Lecornu stepped down amid a parliamentary stalemate over his inability to pass budgets and address other financial matters. It was also the day after he had established a cabinet. “One cannot serve as prime minister when the necessary conditions are not met,” he said in a speech Monday, according to Le Monde. The conditions required to get the French budget passed were absent, along with Social Security, he said. “[These are] matters that cannot wait until the 2027 presidential election,” he said.

Last Monday, France had a déjà vu moment with yet another French prime minister leaving the job. In this case, it was Sébastien Lecornu, who spent a mere 27 days in the role — a record low since 1958. By late Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron had reinstated Lecornu. Read more here.

Lecornu: U.S. Secretary of Defense, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons