Barron's: Rice Prices May Soar

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Observers of the rice market worry that there could be a repeat of the food crisis of 2008. If there is, prices could soar from current depressed levels.

In 2007-08, a combination of export restrictions from major rice-producing countries and speculative investment purchases caused shortages of the grain. Consumers across Asia panicked, buying and hoarding whatever rice was available, while Haiti saw riots.

In the U.S., certain grocery stores limited rice purchases.

As the supply situation worsened, prices catapulted to more than $24 per hundred pounds by April 2008, from about $13 near Thanksgiving 2007.

This time, prices have been on an almost continuous slide for the past 17 months, discouraging growers even as demand increases. Rice is trading around $10 per hundred pounds, down nearly 40% from the end of 2013.

“Current levels of supply against demand are very similar” to the food crises of 1972-74 and 2006-08, says Shawn Hackett in a recent edition of the Hackett Money Flow Report.

The stocks-to-trade ratio, a measure of how much rice is in storage relative to how much is shipped around the globe, is 225%, a tad lower than the 233% seen in 2007-08 when prices started to surge, according to the Firstgrain Rice Market Strategist newsletter. The lower ratio means smaller stockpiles.

“Rice production is projected at a new record,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported in May. But “consumption is forecast to surpass production for the third year in a row, drawing down stocks to the lowest since 2007-08.” 

Read more here.

TheStreet: If Apple CEO Isn't Losing Sleep Over Greece, You Shouldn't Either

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (The Street) -- Greek drama alert: The country by the Aegean Sea is supposed to repay 300 million euros to the International Monetary Fund Friday. 

Will it? Who knows. But that question is at the center of a media-led drama that's playing out as if the future of the world depended on it.  

Should you be worried? Unless you have lent the Greek government money, probably not. Here are seven reasons why: 

1. Is Greece a vital iPhone market? Regardless of how many iPhones, or similar products, Apple sells in Greece, it's unlikely the company is betting the farm on that market, or even that CEO Tim Cook loses sleep over it. And as Apple (APPL) goes, so goes the market. It is Apple's earnings that will, in part, drive what happens to major indices such as the S&P 500. Sales of its products in Greece aren't likely to move the needle on that front. It probably doesn't matter a whole lot to other companies like General Motors (GM) or Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR) either. For more click here.

Photo by iSAW Company on Unsplash

TheStreet: Watch Grain Markets and Monsanto for Price Gains From Ukraine Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The world's eyes are yet again on Ukraine, as fighting in eastern provinces intensifies and Russian and U.S. military forces stare each other down in the Black Sea. 

So what is an investor to do? Start by forgetting Ukraine's natural gas pipeline to Europe: The effects of the conflict will more likely play out in the world grain markets.

First, the gas worries, which may be little more than hot air. Yes, the European Union does import a lot of gas from Russia, but less than previously. At year-end the total was around 9 billion cubic feet a day down from close to 14 billion at the beginning of 2011, according to estimates from the Energy Policy Research Foundation.

See full story here.

TheStreet: How 'Sin Stocks' Keep Investors Safe From Market Swings

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It's time to grab the guns, the booze and the cigarettes. 

Even though such things might be called vices, apparently stocks in their purveyors are very good for your portfolio. In fact, they may even be better for your investment regimen than so-called socially responsible investments, or SRIs, according to a recent unpublished working paper by two academics.

For more click here.

Forbes: 5 Reasons Silicon Valley Should Embrace Performance Pay, Not Shun It

By SIMON CONSTABLE

One of the shining lights of the American economy may have just taken a wrong turn that will do it few favors.

Silicon Valley, birthplace to some of the most amazing technical innovation in the world, is now embracing the idea of so-called “lockstep salaries,” according to a story on TechCrunch. It’s bad news if it takes hold in more than a modest way.

Read more here.

Forbes: 2015 Layoff Survival Guide

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bad news: Sooner or later you will be laid off. I was recently and it wasn’t for the first time.
Good news: I can help you see it coming and then hopefully you can make out like a bandit.
Trust me, I used to be a hatchet man, strategically cutting jobs around the globe. I know how this works. I helped eliminate a total of 25,000 positions.

Think it won’t happen to you, just look at some of the headlines from earlier this month. Managers shed workers like cats shed their coats in spring: Read more here.

TheStreet: Mining Stocks May Be Golden Again -- and You Probably Don’t Have Enough

By SIMON CONSTABLE

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Is it time to jump back into diversified mining stocks? Probably yes, if you are a long-term investor. 

That is the view of veteran mutual fund manager Joe Wickwire. 

Wickwire, who among other responsibilities manages the $300 million Fidelity Global Commodity Stock Fund (FFGCX), and the $1.1 billion Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX), says that there are two broad reasons that now could be the time to jump. The first is that the end of the commodities boom, or supercycle, seems to have alerted mining company managers to the need to be selective in how they produce and allocate capital. Eventually, he says, that should lead to supply cuts and better stock returns.

Read more here.