TheStreet: Below Zero -- The Negative Interest Rates Campaign You May Have Missed

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you think your bank savings earn a measly return now, just wait: It could get even worse.

A coordinated campaign to make negative interest rates a reality in America just got launched -- at least, it looks that way. (See other stories in the Below Zero series for a thorough explanation of negative interest rates and the implications.) Read more here.

Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

Forbes: How To Succeed Like Moby

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It might be hard to imagine Moby as anything other than an uber-famous artist, musician, and DJ. But once upon a time he lived in a disused factory in Connecticut, paying the guards $50 a month to look the other way. In the big scheme of things, that wasn’t so long ago — 1989.

That’s basically where Moby’s recently published book, Poreclain, starts. It then moves location to New York in the early 1990s, a time and place with which I am well acquainted. But that’s not why this book caught my eye. Read more here.

By Uncensored Interview (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes Video: Are Investors Too Sleepy?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

With many things in life, when we get complacent we tend to mess up. The same is true for investors.

Currently, there hasn’t been a major pullback in the markets for a while. The turmoil following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, and the slide in the first few weeks of the year, now both look like distant memories. Yet despite that general lack of volatility, attitudes towards stocks haven’t become ultra cautious.

Edward Dempsey chief investment officer at Pension Partners, explains his thoughts on the matter in this video.

U.S. News: Signs Point to a Stronger Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you are confused over the economy, then you likely aren't the only one.

In late August we got two pieces of seemingly contradictory economic news. One was weak and the other pointed to strength. Here's what they both mean, and why the economy is actually picking up.

On the one hand, the government trimmed its estimate of second GDP quarter growth to a paltry 1.1 percent, according to the latest data. That's weak by any standard and because it was the period from April through June, it was also hard to blame the winter weather, which itself has become something of an annual excuse lately.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has indicated it is moving closer to that point where it may raise the cost of borrowing money. Why? Because the economy is showing strength.
So which is it, strong or weak? Read more here.

Photo by John Gibbons on Unsplash

WSJ: Fundamental vs. Technical Stock Analysts

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Wall Street is chock-full of traders trying to figure out how stocks and bonds will move in the future because they know if they get it right, there are riches to be made.

These investors generally fall into two camps in terms of the methods they use to analyze markets: fundamental analysts and technical analysts. Traditionally, their methods haven’t overlapped, though they now seem to be converging. Read more here.

WSJ: Where Foreign Markets Could Be Headed

By SIMON CONSTABLE

U.S. markets are holding on to modest gains this year after a lackluster 2015, with the S&P 500 up 6.2% through August.

But fund investors might have fared better with overseas exposure, depending on the region.

Here is a look at the performance of some international markets this year and where they may be headed. Read more here.

Top 10 Safe Topics for Journos Covering Peter Thiel

Top 10 list of topics journalists can safely write about Peter Thiel without risking a fate worse than Gawker's Nick Denton:

1. Peter Thiel is awesome
2. Err, that's it.
3. ...
4. .
5. .
6. .
7. .
8. .
9. .
10. .

By David Orban from Italy (Peter Thiel) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

John Batchelor Show: Apple/E.U., ObamaCare, Investing

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Recent appearance on the John Batchelor Show discussing Apple/E.U., Investing, and ObamaCare.

 

TheStreet: Naked Gas Protests Make no Sense

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes Video: Why Foreign Markets Matter To Investors

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Yes, you probably  should you worry about what happens in Beijing or Berlin or Belize. The rest of the world matters to America.

Watch, listen, and learn here.

Forbes: Apple Tax Brawl -- Just Another Nail In The E.U. Coffin

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The European Union may have just signed its own death warrant.

Worse still, it appears that the bungling bureaucrats of Brussels, where the E.U. is headquartered, are oblivious to what they’ve likely set in motion. Read more here.

Photo by Christian Wiediger on Unsplash

U.S. News: Why Resource-Rich Economies Are Really Cursed

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to investing in overseas markets, beware of countries that are heavily endowed with natural resources. 

Contrary to popular belief, if an economy has lots of oil, iron ore, natural gas, timber or other industrial materials, is usually an economic curse rather than a blessing.

The problems are multifaceted, but for investors it can make investing in resource-heavy economies something of a roller-coaster ride. Some examples of countries that have recently seen an economic swoon include Australia, Canada, Brazil, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Read more here.

Barron's: Oat Prices Poised to Rebound

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Oats aren’t just for horses and quakers anymore. investors should get a helping of them, too.

Prices for the grain, which is used as animal feed as well as breakfasts, started weakening steadily in 2014 and have since reached levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. In early 2014, oats fetched more than $4.60 a bushel compared to $1.83 recently.

The fact that prices are so low by historical standards suggests a bounce is in the offing. As economists say, the cure for low prices is low prices. Read more here.

Photo by Łukasz Rawa on Unsplash

U.S. News: 5 Reasons Why You're Bad at Investing

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Every generation has its share of would-be stock market traders hoping to strike it rich.

There have also been more than a few people with dreams of being astronauts, race car drivers or Olympic gold medalists. Those would-be sportsmen and sportswomen have a lot in common with wannabe top-level traders. 

The chances you'll successfully make it in either field are slim. Read more here.

TheStreet: Small Investors Are Worried, Which Means You Shouldn't Be

By SIMON CONSTABLE

You wouldn't know it by looking at all the dire news headlines, but there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on the stock market right now.

So forget the naysayers and their concerns about the U.S. presidential election, the Federal Reserve's money-printing and Vladimir Putin's sabre-rattling. They are all distracting you from making money.  Here are some key points:

TheStreet: Bond Rally Points to Higher Global Growth -- Here's How to Take Advantage

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Great news for the global economy: Risk-taking is back on.

The crucial piece of evidence can be found in the bond market, by looking at how much more lenders charge to extend credit to corporations than to the U.S. Treasury. America gets to borrow at the so-called risk-free rate. Corporations pay extra. 

The higher amount, known as the credit spread, has shrunk dramatically over the past few months. Companies with a BBB-rating, which is moderately risky, have been paying a third less in premium than they did earlier in the year. Read more here.

Forbes: ObamaCare Now On Life Support And You Are Going To Pay

By SIMON CONSTABLE

ObamaCare (aka the Affordable Care Act) is now on life support, and guess who is going to pay to resurrect it?

You are.

One way or another it will be the American people who pay.

Here’s the background and why your hard earned cash is now even more at risk than usual. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: Talking Brexit / Gold

By SIMON CONSTABLE

John Batchelor kindly invited me to be on his fantastic radio show last night. We talked about the need for Britain to get its swashbuckle back on and the flood of money being used to buy gold.

Photo by Dolapo Ayoade on Unsplash

U.S. News: How to Save Thousands of Dollars to Invest in the Future

By SIMON CONSTABLE

So many people fail to invest in stocks and other securities because they don't have the cash to invest. Or at least they think they don't. But the truth is that there are many ways to raise cash that might be staring you in the face. Here are a few ideas.

ABC News Now: 2010

By SIMON CONSTABLE


 
ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos

TheStreet Video: Mozilo's Cereal Ad Revealed

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Blast from the past. A collaboration between me, Aaron Task, and Dee Robertson when we worked together at TheStreet.

Forbes Video: Why Stocks Look Way Overvalued -- S&P's Stovall

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to investing one of the hardest things to do is to buy stocks at the right price. Sometimes there are periods like the mid 1970s when equities were massively undervalued. Other times like in 1999 and 2000, the opposite was true. In the latter period it was years before investors who bought overvalued stocks got their money back, if ever.

What about now? Probably overvalued, if you believe Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. That conclusion isn't based on a gut feel but rather the result of deep analysis of historical data.

He explains his thoughts in this video.

Forbes Video: Are We There Yet? Have Bond Yields Hit Bottom?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The bond market has been in a three-and-a-half decade bull market as the cost of borrowing money has steadily fallen. Bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions.

With rates now at historic lows, the question is simple: Can they go lower, or are we at the bottom? Or as the kid in the back seat of the car repeatedly says, are we there yet? Even a few years ago some pros were saying that interest rates could not go lower, and yet even since then the cost of borrowing has dropped.

At least some observers think we have arrived at the bottom, and hope that rates start to rise soon. One such market professional is  Edward Dempsey chief investment officer at Pension Partners.

Watch, listen, and learn as he explains his thoughts in this video.

TheStreet: Brexit-eers Need To Be 'Swashbuckling' on Trade -- It's Made the U.K. Rich Before

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to Britain's exit from the European Union, a debilitating case of 'nannyism' seems to have afflicted some otherwise smart people.

It's limiting their view of how that country should deal with international trade: What's needed is a bold and daring approach, one like the brave and swashbuckling Brits of yore were famous for. 

Let me explain.

Forbes Video: Will Investors Get Roasted In Turkey?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

After the failed coup in July, Turkey still makes headlines, but should you worry? Certainly the government crackdown looks brutal with multiple news organizations and educational institutions being shutdown, plus many people being rounded up by security forces loyal to the country’s ruler Erdogan.

What’s happening certainly makes the country look like a tough place to live right now. But the for Wall Street the question is how the crackdown, which seems likely to continue, will  affect investors in Europe, which after all is on Turkey’s doorstep. Edward Dempsey, chief investment officer at Pension Partners explains his thoughts in this video.

TheStreet: Gold Rush Fuels 'Best Year Ever' for Precious Metals Funds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Last summer, the commodities sector was frozen in a half-decade long bear market with few signs of a thaw in the near future.

Now, it's hot once again, with gold and silver funds set to see record-breaking inflows of cash. Read more here.

Forbes Video: Why The Most Hated Bull Market Is Most Welcome

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There is a lot of skepticism among investors about the years long bull market in stocks. Questions continually arise about valuation (the market is too expensive,) monetary policy (the market is living on cheap money,) and the huge imbalances in the economy (the market doesn’t reflect the fragility of the U.S.)

But the fact that so many are airing their worries and anxieties about the market tells other people that there is still some more to go. Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explains his thoughts on why negative sentiment about stocks is actually bullish in this video.

U.S. News: Why You Should Buy More Foreign Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's a sad fact that even those Americans who have taken the wise step to invest in the stock market are limiting their investment opportunities. Most simply don't own enough foreign stocks.

Once upon a time that may have made sense. After World War II, much of the world's industry was devastated. What remained as best-in-class businesses were overwhelmingly American corporations. But over the past few decades the rest of the world has caught up.

"When some American workers wake up in the morning they might turn on a Korean TV, and then drive a German car to work," says Brian Levitt, senior investment strategist at Oppenheimer Funds in New York. "It doesn't make sense that they'd then limit themselves to just U.S. investments."

Read more here.

WSJ: Edward Conard On Why Everything You Know About Economics Is Wrong

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Blast from the past, Ed Conard
 

WSJ: Why Fund Investors Could Roil Bonds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Could the reactions of mutual-fund investors to Federal Reserve policy lead to turmoil in the bond market?

Maybe so, according to a new working paper. It says there are incentives for “run-like behavior” among investors in fixed-income mutual funds if the Fed unexpectedly raises interest rates or raises them more than expected. Read more here.

WSJ: What ‘Multiple Contraction’ Means for Investors

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If the economy starts to slow further, investors likely will start talking about “multiple contraction.” It is important to anyone invested in stocks.

Typically, the term refers to what is going on with the price/earnings multiple of stocks. The P/E tells investors how much they are paying for a stock in earnings per share. Read more here.

TheStreet: Why Best and Worst Mutual Funds Have More in Common Than You Think

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

What do the best and the worst performers have in common?

Not much, in most professions. But when it comes to managing mutual funds, the surprising answer is quite a lot. Read more here.

TheStreet: Obamacare Still Sickly, After All These Years

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Six years since it was signed into law, President Obama's signature healthcare program remains somewhat sickly.

The system, dubbed Obamacare for its chief proponent, continues to leave many young people uninsured and could actually be pushing the price of vital pharmaceuticals far higher than they would be otherwise, according to two recently published reports. Read more here.

WSJ: Barry Ritholtz in the Big Interview

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Blast from the past. Barry Ritholtz in the Big Interview.

 

WSJ: How A New Pope Is Chosen

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A blast from the past...How a Pope is chosen.

U.S. News: Why It Pays to Be Careful When Rebalancing a Portfolio

By SIMON CONSTABLE

With Britain moving to leave the European Union, effects of the tumult are sure to show up in your investments, at least for a while.

So should you rebalance your portfolio immediately to take advantage of opportunities? Read more here.

Forbes Video: Is Brexit Really So Bad For European Stocks?

By Simon Constable 

The immediate aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was severe, especially for the British pound which plunged to its lowest level in decades. The news wasn’t all that beneficial for stocks either, at least initially.

But we all know that markets fluctuate over time. They go up and they go down. Over the long term a lot depends on the underlying economics in a country. Better economies tend to have better performing stock markets.

In Britain the jury is still out with some saying that Britain will suffer outside of the EU, while others, like me, see massive opportunities.

Earlier this week I spoke with Edward Dempsey, chief investment officer at Pension Partners, about his thoughts on where things end up. You can hear what he says in this video.

Forbes Video: What Is The Presidential Predictor

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to forecasting election results, many pundits got egg on their face recently. It only takes a quick look across the pond to the United Kingdom’s recent referendum on E.U. membership to see the problems in accurately predicting which way the vote will go. At least it was for the usual pundits. Read more here.

U.S. News: The Current Case for an ARM

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you are planning to buy a home, how should you finance it? The question is simple, but the answer may not be what first comes to mind.

"People like to go right to the 30-year, but that's the wrong thing to do," says Richard Rosso, a partner at Clarity Financial in Houston, referring to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which was the traditional way people could borrow to buy a home up until the early 1980s.

It's hard for some to believe, but the adjustable-rate mortgage as a widely available way to borrow is only a few decades old. Maybe for that reason, the idea that the fixed-rate mortgage as the go-to product seems to have stuck in the American psyche like chewing gum on the sole of a shoe. Read more here.

TheStreet: 3 Must-Watch Economic Indicators for the Summer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Not all economic indicators or market metrics are created equal. What counts changes with time and place. Here's what matters this summer:

Outside on the Street: What is the Recency Effect?

By SIMON CONSTABLE



What Is the Recency Effect? from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Outside On the Street: What You Need to Know Before Adopting a Pet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Joey Texiera and his dog Mervin the Chihuahua join me to discuss.

What You Need to Know Before Adopting a Pet from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

TheStreet: Why Trading Oil Became So Sticky

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Trading oil has always been a tricky business, but a decade ago, things changed to make it downright perilous. 

It wasn't that it became more volatile -- the crude market has always been choppy. Rather, the returns from investing in futures became disconnected with the real market. Here's the detail of what happened and how you can avoid the pitfalls.

The energy market became increasingly oversupplied, which in turn led to an unfavorable flip in how the futures markets for the energy perform. Read more here.

U.S. News: Yes, Risky Investments Have a Place in a Portfolio

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Many people will tell you to stay away from risky investments. But if you follow that advice, there is a chance that you might throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Think of risky investments like you think about salt: Too much could eventually kill you, but too little can be bad in other ways.

The same is true for assets like gold, industrial metals, grains, or even art. A little can be a good thing. Go overboard with it and you'll probably go bust.

Read more here.

Outside on the Street: Buy Amazon For The Firm You Don’t Know

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bullseye Brief's founder Adam Johnson explains what is still special about the iconic online retailer.


Buy Amazon For The Firm You Don't Know from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Forbes: How My ObamaCare Coverage Is Almost Worse Than No Coverage

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For many people, like me, ObamaCare has become like a flat fee tax.

Let me explain how.

It’s an amount that must be paid each month. Failure to do so will result in a fine from the government.

It’s not a flat rate tax, which is meant to be the same percentage tax rate but which is still dependent on income. A ten percent tax on a  $40,000 annual income is $4,000. But a 10% tax on $250,000 is $25,000. Same percentage rate but a different amount. It is neither a regressive or progressive tax.

Beyond a certain income level, which is relatively low, the net amount charged for ObamaCare coverage doesn’t change. Anyone with the same plan as I have (and who doesn’t receive a government subsidy) pays the same flat fee each month regardless of their income. Read more here.

Outside On The Street: How Government Is Killing Wall Street Innovation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

RSM's chief economist Joe Brusuelas explains himself.

How The Government Is Killing Wall Street Innovation from Simon Constable on Vimeo.

Photo by Kvalifik on Unsplash

Outside On the Street: Banning the C-Note Is A Ruse

By SIMON CONSTABLE

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan explains his thoughts.

U.S. News: Investments in Nigeria Are Going Nowhere Anytime Soon

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While the media has been focused on the U.K.'s political theater of the absurd, elsewhere serious economic problems have been developing. 

A case in point is Nigeria, where the once booming economy has fallen on hard times and looks set to get even worse following events in late June. The country has both the largest population in Africa and the biggest economy on that continent, according to data from the World Bank. But those data points belie an economic malaise. Read more here.

Seeking Alpha: Why You Want A Strong Dollar

By SIMON CONSTABLE

I recently had the pleasure of being interviewed by Brian Bain for his radio show. He sums it up here and you can listen to out discussion as well.

Read and listen here.