Forbes: Why Migrants Risk Death To Reach The UK -- It’s The Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Britain is experiencing the best of times and the worst of times.

What you conclude will likely depend on which narrative you believe. There’s the story from financiers who bet with other peoples money, and then there’s the one from migrants who are willing to gamble with their lives.

Given the stakes involved, I’d say the latter is probably a better indicator that Britain’s economy is not lacking any mojo. The former probably says more about bankers than anything. Read more here.

Barron's: Platinum Prices Are Poised for a Pop

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Battered stock investors should put a bar or two of platinum in their portfolio. Prices for the metal, which are used primarily in automobile catalytic converters, looks ready to bounce more than 40% in the next few weeks, analysts say. 

“Our base-case scenario for platinum remains constructive, with a fair value of $1,000 [per troy ounce] driven by higher industrial demand, market volatility, and the South African rand,” says a recent note from Aberdeen Standard Investments. “Under a bullish scenario, platinum may rise to $1,150 [per troy ounce],” or 44% above recent prices. Read more here.

Claudio Pistilli, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: America Gets Baked

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors in pot stocks take note: New research should make you beam.

Drug use in the U.S. is on the rise and marijuana remains the indulgence of choice by a wide margin, according to a recent report from testing firm Quest Diagnostics. Marijuana also goes by the name weed, pot, ganja, and cannabis.

"[...] drug test positivity in the majority of industry sectors analyzed is growing,” according to Dr. Barry Sample, senior director, science and technology, Quest Diagnostics Employer Solutions, who was quoted in the research paper.  Read more here.

Photo by manish panghal on Unsplash

Forbes: Slow Down Yes -- Recession Not Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The U.S. economy will likely weaken in 2019, but that doesn't mean a recession is imminent.

At least that's what important economic metrics suggest.

"At present, the outcome looks to be only a modest slowdown in the next couple of quarters," states a recent report from financial research firm HCWE & Co.

In other words, no recession in the cards yet. Recessions usually get defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Read more here.

Forbes: Market Turmoil Shows Why You Should Own Gold

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The plunge in the stock market is rightly worrying for investors, but there is also something to learn.

Diversified portfolios help during times of stress. Read more here.

Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash

Barron's: British American, Philip Morris International Stocks Ready to Light Up

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Two European tobacco stocks, British American Tobacco, makers of Lucky Strike, Kool, and Newport cigarettes, and Philip Morris International, best known for its Marlboro brand, offer some stability for whipsawed investors.

After being beaten up for most of this year, the shares of both British American (ticker: BTI) and Philip Morris (PM) are substantially undervalued, generally less volatile than the overall market, and yield huge dividends. Read more here.

Photo by Pawel Czerwinski on Unsplash

Barron's: Cheap European Stocks to Buy for 2019

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It could be worth your while to shop for stocks in London, Paris, and Frankfurt during 2019.

While Europe’s top three economies didn’t prove much of a bargain for investors in 2018, their problems—ranging from Brexit to restive local populations—are likely to dissipate. The stocks are inexpensive, and central bank monetary policies will remain supportive. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: No Confidence. No Clarity.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

And we thought all the Brexit drama for the week happened Monday. That’s when UK Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on the details of finally leaving the European Union. She then jetted off to meet other European leaders to negotiate a better deal than the one she had just made.

Then Wednesday came along. May’s own party members in the House of Commons, angry at the deal May originally made, forced a vote of no confidence—an up-or-down vote on May’s leadership. May won, which means she will remain prime minister. But all that intraparty warfare did nothing to define the future of Brexit and give business leaders the one thing they need: clarity. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Brexit Roulette

By SIMON CONSTABLE

So much for a clarifying vote on Brexit.

In yet another jolt to the historic divorce, UK Prime Minister Theresa postponed the first Parliamentary vote this week on a proposed detailing the UK’s departure from the European Union. May wants more time to convince skeptical members of Parliament to sign on to her deal. Read more here.

Forbes: Brexit And The Frankfurt Yeti

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A Brexit-related conundrum is vexing some London-based banking chiefs, or at least it should be.

If Britain leaves the European Union without a trade deal with the bloc, then banks will have to send part of their workforce to mainland Europe. That's what these top dogs of finance tell me.

Therein lies the crux of the issue. That's because it presents the bosses with an inherent contradiction that in some ways looks beyond-hard-to-solve. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Hyperinflation?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Triple-digit inflation has blighted some countries lately. However, the vast majority of those nations aren’t experiencing hyperinflation and most likely never will.

The difference is akin to the distinction between a bad cold and killer influenza. Read more here.

WSJ: The Reasons an ETF Succeeds or Fails

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The world is awash with exchange-traded funds, but not all succeed in appealing to investors. Some attract billions of dollars, and some barely anything.

So, what determines a fund’s success? Read more here.

Photo by Jamie Street on Unsplash

Barron's: Why It’s Time to Bail Out of Deutsche Bank

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s not much to love about Deutsche Bank. The German banking giant is mired in legal woes, the stock is expensive, and a restructuring will dog its performance for some time. Deutsche Bank shares have the potential to fall 30% on top of already-brutal declines. “We fail to see an improvement in the underlying business,” said a recent Morningstar report. Read more here.

Barron's: A Toast to J.D. Wetherspoon

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s time to quaff some shares of British pub chain J.D. Wetherspoon.

The stock (ticker: JDW.UK), which recently dropped after an earnings scare, is cheap and has a persistently high return on equity. “We view the pull-back as a compelling buying opportunity,” states a recent report titled “Playing the Long Game,” from European broker Berenberg. Read more here.

Forbes: Investors Get Bitten By the Gold Bug Again

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors started piling into gold exchange-traded funds in October.

Overall they added 23 metric tons of the metal to investments such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), according to a recent report. The Gold Shares ETF holds bars of solid bullion. Read more here.

Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash

Forbes: Investors Should Love Tech Regulation, If It Ever Happens

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some investors have caught the jitters over the crescendo-like call for more tech-company regulations.

They shouldn't. Read more here.

Forbes: Who's To Blame For GM's Woes -- Trump Or The Fed?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's more to General Motors' problems than steel tariffs.

While it is convenient to blame President Donald Trump for the recent mass layoff announcement at my former employer, there are other perhaps more important things to consider. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Stock Investors Should Cheer Plunging Oil Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some people are doing an awful lot of handwringing over plunging oil prices.

They shouldn't be. When oil prices take a major hit, just like we've seen recently, then stock prices should surge in short order, according to detailed historical market analysis. Read more here.

Forbes: How GDPR Became Europe's Tech Job-Killer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The European Union seems to have shot itself in the foot.

Its efforts to protect your data from misuse likely cost the bloc tens of thousands of jobs in the fast-growing technology sector, according to a recent report from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: Trump and the "Saudi Effect"

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Was Saudi Arabia really responsible for the recent plunge in global oil prices?

The Gulf kingdom deserves some of the credit that US President Donald Trump doled out just before the US Thanksgiving holiday this week, when he thanked Saudi Arabia for "oil prices getting lower".

But a slew of other things are involved, including expectations that the demand for oil will decrease and increased supplies from North American shale-fracking operations, analysts say. Read more here.

Photo by Library of Congress on Unsplash

Barron's: Dutch Materials Stock Looks Tempting

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s time to bet on Dutch materials firm AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group.

Investors recently soured on lithium, casting a pall over the stock (ticker: AMG.Netherlands), even though its exposure to the metal is small. Now the shares—including those traded over the counter in the U.S. under the symbol AMVMF—look cheap, especially given the company’s expanding profit margins. Read more here. 

Briefings Magazine: Beyond Blending In

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s an oil painting by 17th-century Flemish painter Anthony van Dyck, the kind almost any museum would proudly display. Only this one is hanging in a slightly different location: a conference room of a wealth-management firm.

Or at least it could be. While everyone from clients to office workers may give it scant notice, most companies tend to treat office art fairly seriously. After all, aside from the money they may spend on it, the art alone can help business, serving as an icebreaker, for example. “It is difficult to get people to start talking about their money immediately,” says Annelien Bruins, CEO of the Tang Art Advisory in New York. For their part, hedge funds may use artwork to signal financial success. Read more here.

Briefings Magazine: It Isn’t the End of the World

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Italy somehow goes without a ruling party government for three months. Britain’s government is only a little better off, with internal conflict and party bickering bringing Brexit negotiations to a halt. And let’s not even bring up all the dizzying turmoil from the White House and Congress in the United States. All of which should be shaking up these countries’ economies, with investors and corporate leaders feeling pretty nervous with every headline. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: No-Brexit Deal-- The Ultimate Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It was months in the making, and still the deal that Prime Minister Theresa May forged with the European Union didn’t passing enough muster within her own cabinet. And so the talk of a no-Brexit deal scenario continues to rumble through the global markets. Read more here.

Photo by USGS on Unsplash

Middle East Eye: How finance technology can grow Middle East economies

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Lack of access to banking is hampering the Middle East and North Africa.

Access to such services in the region lags the world, which, in turn, is holding back economic growth, according to new research. 

The better news is that there is plenty of untapped potential to unleash, particularly through the use of fintech, or financial technology. In other words, the problem is fixable. Read more here.

Barron's: Two Ways to Play Theresa May’s Brexit Drama

By SIMON CONSTABLE

United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May’s travails in selling her Brexit deal with the European Union to her own Conservative government played out in the U.K. market. Stocks were hit hard, with the locally focused FTSE 250 index losing 1.6% and the pound retreating 1.7%. 

Among the harder hit stocks were big U.K. real estate investment trusts, British Land (ticker: BLND.UK) and Land Securities (LAND.UK), which fell 5.4% and 5%, respectively, on Thursday alone. Read more here.

Photo by John Cameron on Unsplash

Barron's: Why Hungarian Stocks Are Ready to Rise

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s lots to like in Hungary, including strong capital inflows, fast economic growth, low borrowing costs, and a much-improved banking sector. All should help boost local stocks.

“Higher bank profits should improve banks’ ability to ramp up lending and give more support to output growth and investment,” says Ugras Ulku, deputy head of emerging market Europe research at the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Read more here.

Budapest

Photo by Keszthelyi Timi on Unsplash

New York Financial Writers 2018 Follies Intro.

Korn Ferry: In Germany, New Lessons on Succession

In a move that rocked the political sphere, Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel has recently announced she’d step down in three years. Sure, that’s a ways off, but Merkel has held the position for more than decade and been a clear if not stable fixture that will be hard to replace. And for now, few experts see any obvious replacements. 

Succession plans in the political world are, of course, different than those at a company. “There’s no assurance that the up-and-comer politician might not get impatient and challenge the leader to an election,” says Alan Guarino, Vice Chairman in our CEO and Board Services practice for Korn Ferry in New York. “It’s not like corporate America.” Still, a growing number of firms are waking up to the often-ignored importance building high-level pipelines far in advance.  Read more here.

WSJ: What Is the Real Effective Exchange Rate?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In reports explaining why some currencies plunged this year, analysts may have mentioned the Real Effective Exchange Rate, or REER.

The REER provides a broader assessment of a currency’s value than simply comparing the value of one country’s currency against another country’s currency. Read more here.

Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

Barron's: How Electric Vehicles Should Give a Jolt to Copper Miners

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Copper prices have dropped 18% in recent weeks, creating a long-term opportunity to get in on some cheap copper-mining giants with generous dividend payouts. Their prospects will depend on a major technological transition: the move from gasoline-powered to electric vehicles.

“If you’re bullish on global growth over the next 18 to 24 months, you have to own copper-related assets, especially since current prices aren’t high enough to fund new-mine development,” says Adam Johnson, founder and author of the Bullseye Brief financial newsletter. Read more here.

Forbes: More Upside In Gold Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

This month's rally in gold prices may not be over.

That's because investors are still heavily betting on a decline in the value of the precious metal. When speculators overwhelmingly bet in one direction then a move in the opposite way is often the result. Read more here.

Forbes: Gold Outperformed Bitcoin In October

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When investing in alternative assets gold remains the king.

The yellow metal performed far better than the world's best-known cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, during October's market volatility. Read more here.

John Batchelor Radio Show: What Does Brexit Do For Scotland?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Mid East Eye: Saudi Economy May Pay High Price for Khashoggi Killing

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Saudi Arabia’s economy will likely pay a high price over the recent killing of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a sordid affair that sparked global outrage and which may prompt some action by the United States and other governments.

However, the longer-term issue is that investors will likely shun Saudi Arabia because the killing highlights the kingdom’s political instability, and that shakiness is something from which investors tend to shy away or exact a high price. Read more here.

Forbes: Message From The Bond Market -- More Turmoil For Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Already stocks have had a volatile fall, but it could get even worse.

That's because a change in the bond market is pointing to a sharp decline in stocks unless something changes, according to one analyst. Read more here.

Forbes: The Italian Financial Mess Ain't Over Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The disagreement between the European Union and the recently-formed Italian government coalition, ain't over yet.

Quite the contrary. It could run and run, according to a recently published report. Read more here.

Photo by Emma Fabbri on Unsplash

Forbes: How A Small Scottish Biotech Firm Could Win A Decisive Battle Against Cancer?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A small Scottish-based biotech company could soon win a decisive battle in the war against cancer. 

NuCana, led by biotech industry veteran Hugh Griffith, is developing therapies that could radically change cancer treatment. Despite only being founded in 2008 the firm has already captured the interest of investors with good results from clinical trials of the compounds. Read more here.

Barron's: Get Ready for Big Oil Stocks in Europe to Rise if Prices Do

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Favorable valuations, a change in investor outlook, and a surge in oil prices could lift the stocks of major European oil producers.

“If you have a broad rally in energy, I think it is safe to say that both European and American investors will look at some of the big oil names globally and find them interesting,” says Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors in New York. “Those companies with bigger dividends will become attractive again.” Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Europe’s Rattling Political Power Plays

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The upheaval keeps building up across western Europe’s political landscape. Germany’s center-right parties, which the country’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, represents, are increasingly getting squeezed at the polls. In Italy, the coalition government is having trouble developing a budget. And across the English Channel, the UK prime minister’s cabinet is in turmoil while Ireland’s president faces five challengers in an election on Friday.

Pundits have their own views on each country’s issues, but private-sector leaders are likely to see a simple lesson across the board: When the landscape changes, fundamentals become ever more important. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Picketing for Equal Pay

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For years, it was a topic that would surface in studies and headlines, but rarely beyond. Then several countries began to get serious, requiring companies to report differences in gender pay gaps or trying to close it themselves. A few big firms spent millions trying to make up the pay difference between men and women in the same job. Read more here.

Forbes Russia: Time to Bet on Putin

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Санкции против Ирана, который скоро будут введены, а также невысокие котировки будут способствовать повышению стоимости акций российских компаний в краткосрочной перспективе. Хотя это ралли может продлиться недолго, там тем не менее существует возможность получить некоторое количество легких денег.

Read more here.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: It’s Time to Bet on British Stocks — Even With Brexit Looming

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s an opportune time to bet on British stocks.

The country’s economy is strong, stocks are inexpensive relative to those in the U.S., and when the Brexit drama passes, the pound sterling should rise.

Investors playing a likely rally should purchase the iShares FTSE 250 exchange-traded fund (ticker: MIDD.UK). Read more here.

Forbes: Time To Bet On Putin?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Love him or hate him, now might be the time to place a bet on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Not exactly him, but rather the Russian stock market. Read more here.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

SFS: Borrowing and Business -- What You Don't Know Can Hurt Your Finances

By SIMON CONSTABLE

So, you’re feeling confident enough about your business to go shopping for a loan. 

Congratulations! But before you start looking you should understand these five important areas impacting loans, beginning with the difference between interest rates and APR. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Has Brexit Hit the Disaster-Prepping Phase?

The EU and UK split-up is still not until the end of next March, but the warnings have already begun--with the British government preparing citizens for a world with no agreement or regulations set between its own country and Europe. Indeed, one memo sounds very much like a disaster-prep, suggesting companies stockpiling goods and products. Read more here.

Barron's: Bayer Battling Back Against Legal Woes

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Shares of struggling German health-care and chemical giant Bayer revived a bit on Thursday as the company got at least a temporary reprieve from a huge jury award that held its weed killer Roundup liable for a plaintiff’s cancer.

There is likely to be more positive news for long-term investors, as this and related cases against Roundup proceed through the court system. Read more here.

Daniel Case, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: A Replacement for Libor Gains Traction

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A benchmark borrowing cost known as the secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is gaining traction as a replacement for the better known but sullied Libor as the rate underpinning a range of global debt instruments. Read more here.

Avsankur©, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: Italian Bonds Are Cheap — but for Risk Takers Only

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Italy’s political circus is sending local bond prices tumbling and yields higher. But the country’s real economic risk also offers a contrarian opportunity to buy long-dated Italian bonds at discounted prices.

“If you think the current political situation gets resolved, then Italian bonds offer really good returns,” says Ihab Salib, head of international fixed income at money-management firm Federated Investors. He concedes that this isn’t a consensus opinion. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: The Euro, Brexit etc.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Photo by Maryna Yazbeck on Unsplash

Forbes: Why Investors Should Expect Gold To Jump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Gold traders are now extremely bearish on the price of gold bullion.

It's a sign that the price of the yellow metal will likely jump. Read more here.

Forbes: Blame The Banks For Low Productivity Growth

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Economists have long wondered why productivity growth slowed over the past few decades. But now there could be an answer.

The banks did it, at least according to the conclusion of a recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

What's more, the authors have a stark warning about the reliance on finance for economic growth. Read more here.

Forbes: Will Venezuela Get The Government It Needs?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Earlier in September the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, joined a group of people on the street who were protesting the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro.

“We need your voices to be loud, and I will tell you going to tell you the United States voice is going to be very loud,” Haley said.

Her words raise the chances that Venezuela's rotten regime may bite the dust, which has the potential to be great for the downtrodden people of that country and also for investors. Read more here.

Nicolas Maduro

Photo by Eneas De Troya,

CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>,

via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: The Euro Is Due for a Rebound

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The euro looks set to bounce.

The rebound will come once investors perceive that the European Central Bank is becoming more assertive in managing the common currency area’s monetary policy.

“It’s not yet priced into the financial markets,” says Axel Merk, founder and chief investment officer of money management firm Merk Investments. Read more here.

Forbes: Jeremy Corbyn A Bigger Threat To London Than Brexit

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Move over Brexit, the biggest threat to London's status as Europe's leading financial center is now Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Britain's increasingly left-leaning Labour Party. Read more here.

Jeremy Corbyn

Photo by David Martyn Hunt from Warwick, UK,

 CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Korn Ferry: The United Nations’ Entourage

They descend each fall into New York City, ambassadors and consuls attending the annual United Nations General Assembly. And as they give speeches and make headlines, each dignitary comes along with a retinue of diplomats, helpers, and hangers-on—a little noticed but key entourage. Read more here.

Forbes: Why The Mid-term Elections Means Stocks Will Surge

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Smart investors should consider buying stocks now.

The reason is that the market usually does far better in the fourth quarter (October through December) in years when there is a midterm election than when there is not one, new research shows.  Read more here.

Barron's: Turkish Stocks Might Be Ready for A Bounce -- If You Hurry

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s potential for some trading profits in Turkey.

 

So far this year Turkey’s stocks and currency have taken a hammering. But the recent stabilization of the Turkish lira may be paving the way for a bounce in stocks. “We think that the lira has fallen so much that it has gone from overvalued to undervalued and now is cheap from a fundamental perspective,” says Sergi Lanau, deputy chief economist at the Washington D.C.-based Institute of International Finance. 

Read more here.

Photo by Meg Jerrard on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: Do We Really Need To Meet Again?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It sounds like something out of a Dilbert cartoon—having a meeting about a meeting—but it happens more often than many leaders want to admit, and this week it’s happening at the highest echelons of government.

Starting Wednesday, leaders in the European Union will be meeting in Austria to decide whether they should have another confab in mid-November. Blame the negotiations over Brexit, Britain’s exit from the EU bloc, for the sudden proliferation of such gatherings. This week’s effort will be an additional meeting to the already scheduled regular one for mid-October. The October date is considered too soon to expect any progress in the wrangling over how the EU and United Kingdom will interact with each other after the split. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Beyond Theresa May

The talk is gettering louder—months after questions about Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May’s tenure first made news. Now, the opposition Labour Party claims it could come into power by year-end, forcing even skeptical UK executives to consider what that might mean to their business—particularly the HR side of it. Read more here.

Barron's: ObsEva -- A Small Biotech With a Promising Pipeline

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A small Swiss biotech company focused on women’s reproductive health has three promising treatments reaching key development stages in the next few months that could pay off for investors. Read more here.

Photo by Mika Baumeister on Unsplash