Briefings: A World of Doubts

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It was 2013, and the decision in China hardly raised any eyebrows in the global investment community—at least at first. Concerned about rogue financing, the government said it would crack down on so-called “shadow banking” firms, which are financial institutions that operate with little or no regulation. Too much bad lending, China’s leaders said, could mean a repeat of 2008.

Which appeared to make sense, except that over time, the move exposed a major weakness in China: its inability to attract enough investment and to switch to a US-style consumer-led economy at the same time. The crackdown would squeeze lending too much, and China’s economy slowed. But most importantly, it created new doubts about the nation’s policies—and ultimately a dramatic exodus of international investment.

All of which raises a curious question: How do you anticipate and measure investor confidence on a large scale? Read more here.

Briefings: Fishing's Power of Zen

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Most of Will Gardenswartz’s days are so consumed with games it stresses him out. As the CEO of the gamification consulting firm Life Carrot, Gardenswartz is always hustling to television executives and other entertainment producers to incorporate online games to increase audience size and engage viewers. It’s exhausting work.

But there’s one activity that’s anything but a game to Gardenswartz: fishing. He’s been doing it since he was a child. He even chose to live near Sun Valley, Idaho, to be close to some of the world’s best fishing spots. “In business, I’m easily distracted by things that don’t matter,” he says. But when he’s out on the water, he can devote his entire mind to the narrow matter of catching fish. Read more here.

Photo by Skaterlunatic on Unsplash

U.S. News: What Really Worries Wall Street Analysts?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investing professionals are paid to worry – not necessarily about whether they left the stove on or whether the boss will like their new shoes, but what's happening on Wall Street. In the world of stocks and bonds, successful pros need to be concerned about what could go wrong with their investment decisions.

And there's a lot to think about. Here are the biggest things that investment professionals lose sleep over today: Read more here.

Photo by Nik Shuliahin on Unsplash

P.J. Media: Bundle Up the Economy and Brace for Colder Winters

By SIMON CONSTABLE

You’re gonna need a thicker sweater.

Either that, or a fatter bank balance.

Why? For the foreseeable future, we are likely to see the nasty combination of higher fuel costs and colder winter weather.

There are three reasons: Oil supplies look set to get interrupted this year, the dollar is weaker, and activity on the surface of the sun portends a period of frigid winters. Read more here.

Photo by Tijana Drndarski on Unsplash

Middle East Eye: Egypt set to continue economic 'reforms'

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Egypt looks set to buck a trend this year.

While other countries in the Middle East will likely slow down their economic reforms, Egypt will power forward with its own after March elections, according to analysts.

“There is a genuine commitment to reform by the president,” said Riccardo Fabiani, senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group in London. “For him [President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi] it isn’t just about doing the minimum to avoid being punished by international creditors.” Read more here.

U.S. News: Why Oil and Telecom Stocks Are a Good Bet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Will this be the year to invest in oil and telecom stocks? A BMO Private Bank report says oil and telecom could be "surprising market leaders" in the U.S. stock market in 2018.

Both sectors were losers in last year's bull market, but history shows that such laggards tend to bounce back – and for that reason, oil and telecom stocks could be winners in 2018. Read more here.

Forbes: The Fed Needs To Read This Economics Book

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The problem with economics is that even the leadership of the Federal Reserve seem to get confused.

Luckily, a soon-to-be-published book will help sort out the situation. It's titled "The Growth Delusion: Wealth, Poverty, and the Well-Being of Nations," by David Pilling, and is set to hit bookstores on January 30. Read more here.

P.J. Media: A Nation of Junkies? Study Eschews Economic Despair Opioid Theory

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Why are so many Americans dying of drug overdoses? Maybe it’s because we’re a nation of junkies.

At least that seems to be the finding from a new study that flies in the face of the more widespread view that the opioid crisis is the result of a weak economy.

“The fatal overdose epidemic is likely to primarily reflect drug problems rather than the deaths of despair,” states a report published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Read more here.

P.J. Media: Russia Reaps What Privatization Sows in Great Grain Revolution

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While few have noticed, Russia has quietly grown into a new role: Top dog in the global wheat trade.

An astonishing rise in productivity, which has seen the country's wheat output more than double in size since the late 1980s, comes primarily as a result of privatization of the agricultural sector. A potential bonus for the former Soviet economy is that if, as some analysts expect, prices for the grain jump the country could see a bump in export earnings. Read more here.

Forbes: Iran Could Be One Of The Sexiest Places For Investment, Says Exiled Crown Prince

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There are tremendous possibilities for Iran's economy that go way beyond oil.

The problem is that at best the resources haven't been managed well, at worst they have been squandered. That's according to exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who spoke with me recently. Read more here.

Forbes: Iranians Have Endured Zero Legal Protections For Years, says Exiled Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Protestors massing on the streets across Iran want something different from their government. That is for sure. But is also true that the current theocratic system ruled by the Mullahs may not allow for what the people want.

So what should a new government look like in a possible future Iran? One that protects liberties for people equally under the law says exiled Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi.  Read more here.

Reza Pahlavi

Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Blame Tyrannical Rule For Iran's Dismal Economy, Says Shah-In-Waiting

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Over the past few months, increasing numbers of Iranians have taken to the streets to demonstrate. Initially, the protests were over missing bank deposits, but recently the concerns of the participants have included worries about high inflation, lack of jobs, and unpaid wages. As so often happens, the mass protests seem to have been prompted by lack of economic fundamentals.

What, if anything, can be done about the dire economic situation?  To gain some insight, I spoke with the former Shah's son Reza Pahlavi, who is a possible Shah-In-Waiting for a new regime in the country, about the plight of Iran and the Iranian people. Read more here.

Reza Pahlavi

Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0,

 via Wikimedia Commons

Featured in How Stuff Works: Bitcoin Futures Trading Isn't Blowing Up — Yet

In a surprising move in November 2017, the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave its blessing for bitcoin futures to be traded on two major U.S.-based exchanges: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the CBOE Global Markets Exchange. And just a few short weeks later, on Dec. 11, bitcoin futures trading opened for business, with investors making bets on the future price of the controversial cryptocurrency alongside conventional commodities like oil, corn and pork bellies. Read more here.

U.S. News: When Are Small Companies Worth Your Investment?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Don’t you love it when the little guy wins against the giant? It goes back thousands of years to the biblical story of David, the boy who used a slingshot to defeat the Philistine giant Goliath.

The stock market may be about to do similar, with small-capitalization stocks outperforming large-cap stocks. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Alternative Risk Premium?

By SIMON CONSTABLE
It used to be an obscure technical term: alternative risk premium. But you are going to hear a lot more about it soon. Read more here.

WSJ: Why Fund-Flow Stats Aren’t the Indicator They Used to Be

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Smart investors used to be able to identify market tops and bottoms by watching the weekly flows of money into and out of mutual funds. Then came ETFs and everything changed. Read more here.

Julie Jason: Keeping tabs on economic trends

If you are an investor, do you watch economic trends? Some economists believe that being aware of economic trends gives investors an edge. I spoke with economist Simon Constable a few weeks ago to discern how his work might provide some insights and guidance to today’s investors. Constable is co-author of “The Wall Street Journal Guide to the 50 Economic Indicators That Really Matter: From Big Macs to ‘Zombie Banks,’ the Indicators Smart Investors Watch to Beat the Market.” Read more here.

PJ Media: How Income Taxes Increase Economic Inequality

By SIMON CONSTABLE

New research suggests that some politicians may have been barking up the wrong tree when it comes to battling income inequality.

Take for instance, Bernie Sanders, the former left-wing candidate for U.S. president who in 2015 said that a 90 percent top income tax rate on the wealthy would not be too high. His idea was to reduce income inequality and he cited the eye-watering tax rates as the right way to do it. Plenty in the media rushed to his defense.

The problem is that the evidence from the real world doesn’t support such assertions. Read more here.

U.S. News: Why an Inverted Yield Curve Signals Financial Disaster

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If the bond market inverts, will your portfolio get upended?

Increasingly market pros today are talking about a flatter yield curve in the bond market. And as the curve flattens we come closer to a dreaded inverted yield curve and a likely recession, which would not be good for stocks or riskier bonds. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: Copper bullishness 2018 & What is to be done?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: Why Prince Harry Should Nix Obama Royal Wedding Invite

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's a diplomatic spat waiting to happen between the U.S. and U.K., and it involves none other than former president Barrack Obama.

The out-of-office politician is known to be good friends with Prince Harry, and there is now talk of the former getting an invite to the forthcoming royal wedding, according to a report in Metro.

That invite shouldn't happen, and the matter comes down to economics. Read more here.