Forbes: Brexit May Slow Britain's Innovation

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Britain's exit from the European Union may risk the U.K. losing that most valuable of all things: Innovation. At least that's according to one scholar.

It could be a blow to the country's three leading exports, which are defense/aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. Read more here.

Forbes: Why A Surging Dollar Will Crush Emerging Markets

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The surge in the dollar isn't over yet, and that means bad news for investors in emerging markets.

Beginning in late January the dollar index against major currencies has so far added more than 7% in value, according to government data. The move has come as the U.S. economy has accelerated while growth much of the developed world has remained sluggish. Read more here.

Barron's: Gold Could Be in a Prolonged Tailspin

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Don’t expect gold prices to recover anytime soon, because the strength of the U.S. dollar will keep a lid on any rally at the very least and could push prices for the metal down further. Read more here.

Forbes: Did The Fed Break The "Yield Curve Indicator?"

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A once-reliable indicator of future recessions may be broken.

The metric in question is the so-called treasury yield-curve which measures the difference in the cost of the government borrowing for two years and the cost of the government borrowing for 10 years.

In the past, when the 2-year interest rate on U.S. Treasuries was higher than the 10-year rate on U.s. Treasuries, then we could reliably expect a recession in short order.

Not so much anymore, because recent actions by the Federal Reserve may have broken the indicator, according to one analyst. Read more here.

PJ Media: How GMOs or 'Frankenfoods' Help Reduce World Poverty

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Could so-called “Frankenfoods” be a solution to global poverty?

The answer is yes, according to a new study that shows increased use of genetically modified (GM) crops (those that have higher yields than non-modified plants) boosted the economics of some of the world’s poorest countries. The derogatory term Frankenfoods likens engineered plants, aka GM crops, to the fictional lab-made monster of Dr. Frankenstein, made famous in many movies.

However, the findings from the research also show the GM crops aren't a horror show at all. They provide yet more evidence of how capitalism is far better at tackling economic privation than any attempts at socialist-style wealth redistribution. Ironically, it could turn the producers of genetically modified (GM) crops and activists into unlikely partners. Read more here.

Forbes: Economics Disaster Won't Prompt Iran Regime Change

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's some bad news for Iranians who are now suffering the wealth-withering effects of hyperinflation and mass unemployment.

Just because Iran's beleaguered economy is a mess doesn't mean that the end is in sight for the theocratic regime that has ruled the country since 1979.

History shows that regimes that send their countries into economic armageddon can continue on for years without being ousted. Read more here.

Forbes: Trump's Economy Still Lags That Of Clinton And Bush

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When the first read on second-quarter U.S. GDP data gets released Friday, its expected to be good enough to grab some big headlines.

But no one is expecting the growth to be anywhere near as good as things got in the years under President Bill Clinton or those of President George W Bush. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Globalization Ain't Dead Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Claims that the era of free trade is on its last legs are much exaggerated.

It is nowhere near dead. Not by a long shot.

Assurances that the U.S. has embarked on a trade war that will collapse the world economy similarly grasp at a phantom menace.

Who knows for sure why people say such things, but we can make educated guesses.

A couple of probable reasons stand out as feasible. First, it may be because such scaremongers are too focused on the recent spats between the U.S. and China, plus the U.S. and the European Union. Alternatively, it could be that they aren’t aware of how the current tariffs fit into the move towards increasingly freer trade over the last two centuries. Read more here.

Forbes: Could Small Caps Help Investors Beat A Trade War?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Talk of a trade war has been increasingly ubiquitous for the past few months, whether it be between the U.S. and either China or the U.S. and the European Union.

But that hasn't stopped investors piling into U.S. assets including greenbacks and stocks.

Read more here.

PJ Media: Rising Energy Prices Tells Us That the World Will Shun Dealing with Iran

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

The crude oil market has a blunt message for the world.

U.S. sanctions on Iran will bite hard and so remove a chunk of crude oil supply from the global market. That’s why prices for this energy have rallied so much lately.

The price for light sweet crude has rallied almost 10 percent over the past few weeks to $73.63 a barrel recently from $67.25 at the beginning of May, according to data from Bloomberg.

In early May the Trump administration signaled an end to U.S. participation in the so-called Iran nuclear deal and would, therefore, begin to impose sanctions on the country. The Obama-era agreement had allowed Iran to trade oil and other goods in exchange for not developing nuclear weapons. Read more here.

Photo by Delfino Barboza on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: Brexit Break-Ups

In any negotiation, it’s assumed that each side has a common objective. But when it comes to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, that may not be the case.

Over the weekend Prime Minister Theresa May unveiled her Brexit plan. But by Monday two pro-Brexit members of May’s Cabinet had quit in protest. Other ministers may follow suit, and some experts are wondering whether May herself will leave soon. Read more here.

WSJ: Bottom-Up vs. Top-down

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes you’ll see investment research that discusses so-called top-down and bottom-up estimates of how much money the companies in the S&P 500 index will earn overall.

The differences can sometimes be meaningful. Read more here.

Rob Young from United Kingdom, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What's Driving the Bank Stocks?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bank stocks in recent years have appreciated along with a rise in long-term interest rates, outperforming the broader market over much of that time. Can investors count on this trend continuing, as long as the 10-year yield is rising?

Not necessarily, analysts say, pointing out that long-term interest rates are just one of several factors that drive bank profitability. Read more here.

Photo by Eduardo Soares on Unsplash

PJ Media: How Artificial Intelligence Can Lead to Better Pay for Human Workers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

More than a few people have their knickers in a twist over artificial intelligence (AI). But they shouldn’t. The technology will make us all richer.

Some folks fear AI to the point where they get paralyzed, whereas the reality is that this new technology will augur consistent pay raises. Here’s the skinny on a situation that shouldn’t be at all terrifying, but is. Read more here.