Forbes: Did The Fed Break The "Yield Curve Indicator?"

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A once-reliable indicator of future recessions may be broken.

The metric in question is the so-called treasury yield-curve which measures the difference in the cost of the government borrowing for two years and the cost of the government borrowing for 10 years.

In the past, when the 2-year interest rate on U.S. Treasuries was higher than the 10-year rate on U.s. Treasuries, then we could reliably expect a recession in short order.

Not so much anymore, because recent actions by the Federal Reserve may have broken the indicator, according to one analyst. Read more here.