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While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by "pulling forward"future consumption, such actions create an eventual "void" that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the "event horizon" may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.

I recently discussed this point with my friend Simon Constable specifically. He is right. Following the financial crisis, the average age of vehicles on the road had gotten fairly extended, so a replacement cycle became more likely. This replacement cycle was accelerated when the Obama Administration launched the "cash for clunkers" program, which reduced the number of "used" vehicles for sale pushing individuals into new cars.

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