By SIMON CONSTABLE
Weary tax payers may remember the banking bailout of 2008. That’s the time when the Federal government forked over $700 billion to financial institutions in order to save the banking system.
Was that favor returned to businesses in need during the recent Covid crisis? No. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
For the first time in what seems like forever, U.S. inflation is trending higher. However, that may not continue and that could have a major impact on the bond market. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
A drop in corn production will result in reduced supplies of the grain, propelling prices higher over the next few months, experts say.
U.S. corn inventory at the end of the 2020-21 growing season will be 1.3 billion bushels, far lower than the 1.7-billion-bushel level expected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, says Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
As if 2020 wasn’t bad enough, 2021 will likely bring biblical-style extreme weather including droughts, frigid winters, and monster hurricanes, recent research shows. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
How will stocks perform in 2021?
It’s hard to know before it happens. However, if you are willing to wait until the end of January you’ll have a highly reliable signal on which way it will go, according to a recent report from Wall Street analytics firm CFRA. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Recent unseasonably dry weather in South America, and worries that the lack of moisture will continue, could propel soybean prices more than 40% higher in the first quarter of 2021.
“South America is a little too dry and uncomfortably dry,” says Sal Gilbertie, founder and CEO of commodity exchange-traded fund company Teucrium Trading. Read more here.
Soybeans
Dalgial, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Some philanthropists are born into families of modest means, while others inherit their wealth. But one thing seems to unite them—giving away money for charitable purposes isn't as easy as it might first appear. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
History shows that America will lead the global recovery this time just like it has in the past. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors will hear or read about Wall Street professionals using contrary or contrarian indicators to predict which way asset prices will move. While the concept can be confusing to new investors, it may be particularly relevant now. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is getting serious about going green.
At least its hard to make any other conclusion following an announcement made Monday by the country’s oil giant Aramco as well as other involved parties. However, you may have to read between the lines to understand the significance. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The U.S. economy continues to bounce back.
Its now estimated to be growing at the rip-roaring rate of 11% during the fourth quarter, according to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed dated November 25. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The Covid-19 pandemic continues to dog local labor markets in the U.S. And that’s why the government needs to step in with another round of fiscal stimulus or risk derailing the jobs recovery, according to a recent report from Deutsche Bank (DB). Read more here.
BY SIMON CONSTABLE
The recent fall in gold prices might not be over and investors should wait until the market stabilizes before buying the precious metal, experts say. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds have been dumping their commodities holdings for five straight weeks, new data shows.
It could be a contrary indicator that it’s time to invest in commodities. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Recent lackluster price action in the precious metals market shouldn't leave gold investors down in the dumps. Shortly, the bull market for the yellow metal is set to resume, according to a recent report from Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
As recent market action shows, there are perils with investments that track market-capitalization-weighted indexes—especially when a rally goes into reverse. Read more here.
By Simon Constable
Wall Street professionals increasingly are investing in companies considered to be “green” in that they follow ESG (environmental, social and governance) principles. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors continued plowing their cash into gold bullion in the third quarter, helping propel the price more than 5% higher over the period. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
China wants to say good-bye to smoggy cities and toxic waste. And it seems to mean business this time, as they are bringing in western energy experts to help make sure they achieve it. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
It’s time for British savers and investors to watch out.
The Bank of England, the U.K.’s central bank, is now testing the waters for possible negative interest rates.
If that happens, it would be a financial war on hardworking savers in Britain and at the same time likely hurt the economy. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Veteran investor Charlie Munger once quipped, “Show me the incentive, and I'll show you the outcome.” Put simply, what metrics an employer uses to determine performance pay will likely have a profound effect on the way employees behave. In turn, that impacts how companies perform. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Why would anyone want to buy a bond with a negative yield?
It’s a good question especially given that experts estimate that there are almost $16 trillion of bonds in the world that have negative yields. That’s a lot of securities that investors have purchased knowing that they’ll get back less money than they invested. It means that a one-year bond with a face value of $1,000 that yields minus 1% will leave the investor with $990 when the bond matures. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors might start hearing a lot more about the output gap, an obscure metric Wall Street professionals historically have used to predict changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy and the potential for an increase in inflation.
Using it, however, can be more art than science. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The recent fall in gold and silver prices could present a buying opportunity for those wishing to invest in precious metals for the medium and longer term. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Reports of the death of cities are much exaggerated.
Yes, it is true that New York City and other major metropolitan areas have seen some problems lately, but overall it may be more of a media circus than reality, according to a recent research report from UK-based bank Barclays. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
A sweeping victory by the Democrats in early November would be positive news for the stock market, according to a recent report from New York-based bank Goldman Sachs. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
For many people, 2020 is synonymous with the COVID-19 pandemic, a brutal election campaign in the United States, and ongoing tension between the US and China. But there’s one major event that seems to have slipped from the radar: Brexit, Britain’s historic exit from the European Union. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Coastal residents from Florida to New York can start to rest a little bit easier from fears of being battered by tropical storms. But for investors, that’s just when things can tend to get a bit rougher in the stock market.
Stocks have historically seen tumultuous times during October, and that’s something no savvy investor should ignore. “October is a scary month,” says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at the financial research company CFRA. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
“[W]e think this decline will represent an opportunity to buy rather than a reason to bail,” states a recent report from Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at New York-based financial research firm CFRA. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
At the end of last month, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell announced a shift in one of its decades-long policy goals. It’s a move that should worry investors and workers alike. Here’s what happened and why it’s a problem:
At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, Powell said that instead of targeting an annualized inflation rate of 2%, the institution would allow the rise in the cost of living to go above that rate for long periods. The idea, Powell explained, was to take account of long periods when inflation had remained stubbornly below its target.
Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Stock-market sectors generally don’t move in strict synchronization. Some will lead as others lag behind, and a key question for investors is which sector is poised to move up fastest next. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors in commodities funds that hold futures contracts will hear or read the words contango and backwardation. The terms are apt to confuse even those with some Wall Street experience, but understanding them is vital for investors in commodities. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors would be ill-advised to make financial bets that the price of gold will fall, according to a recent video report from commodities consulting firm CPM Group.
The video, hosted by Jeff Christian, founder, and managing partner of the company, notes that anyone with an outlook longer than a couple of weeks should be long. In other words, investors should bet on higher prices for the yellow metal. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
When Germany’s economy appeared to be on a pandemic-pushed brink earlier this year, its government gave companies cash to keep employees on the payroll. Now, with the virus looking less threatening, some thought the helping hand might be removed. That wasn’t quite what happened. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors are poised to pump an additional $2-3 trillion money into the gold market in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, experts say.
That could mean a surge in the price of gold, such as that held in the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, could surge by at least 30%.
Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Two different diseases on two different continents are set to leave the world without enough pigs to fulfill the demand for pork and other related meats. That, in turn, should cause a rally in the price of lean hogs over the next few weeks. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors have gone bonkers for gold lately, and some see the bull run continuing.
Those who invested in bullion, such as the metal held by the SPDR Gold Shares GLD exchange-traded fund, have done well. But those who picked mining companies, especially the smaller ones, did even better. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
If anyone is looking for bad economic news these days, it’s not too hard to find. In the United States and Europe, gross domestic product numbers this past quarter were stunningly bad, perhaps none more than the 20% or so fall the United Kingdom is expected to report this week.
But that was last quarter. According to some little-noticed results, the all-too-critical manufacturing sector appears to have turned the corner. During July the factory sector grew in the US and in all three of Europe’s largest economies. Indeed, under one well-followed metric, the US, the UK, Germany, and France show that all four countries are now in “expansion” territory—after months of being in contraction from the pandemic earlier this year. “I am quite optimistic that this is for real,” says Yannick Binvel, Korn Ferry’s president of global industrial markets. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Gold investors should brace themselves for weeks more of market whiplash. In other words, if the recent volatility in the price of bullion has your stomach churning and your eyes twitching with anxiety, you’re gonna need to get used to it fast. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
After more than half a decade of record-busting price moves, the palladium market hit a bump in the road. The slowdown in the global economy, including the drop in car sales, is the problem.
“I would expect us to see sideways rangebound trade,” says Steve Dunn, head of exchange-traded funds at Aberdeen Standard, which runs the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL). Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Many investors are familiar with the VIX, or volatility index, that measures how much investors expect to see the S&P 500 index fluctuate.
But far fewer know even a little about a measure of volatility in economic growth called the Economic VIX Index, created by Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at investment-management and research firm Leuthold Group. The Economic VIX is important now because its history over the decades since World War II shows that stocks do best when economic volatility in the U.S. is at its lowest or its highest—and the pandemic is stoking economic volatility that Mr. Paulsen believes will be historic. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
So far this year, investors in gold and silver have made out like bandits, especially when you compare the returns of the world’s two best-known precious metals with those of stocks.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of bullion, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV), an ETF that tracks silver prices, are up 34% and 57%, respectively, so far this year. That compares to just a 4% gain for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 stock index. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The stock-market volatility in the first half of 2020 should have been a near-perfect period for “long-short” mutual funds and exchange-traded funds to make a killing.
Unfortunately, less than one in three such funds made money for investors during this tumultuous period. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Corn prices look set to rise over the next few weeks as extreme weather and agricultural pests put a dent in the harvest of the world’s two largest producers of the grain.
“Our estimate is that the corn price reaches $3.80 plus or minus 20 cents in the fall,” says Shawn Hackett, president of Boca Raton-based Hackett Financial Advisors.
In other words, corn prices could easily reach $4 a bushel, or about 24% higher than recent prices of around $3.22. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors sometimes talk about the “smile” of the U.S. dollar. What does it mean?
The dollar smile is a theory that says the U.S. currency tends to increase in value against other currencies when the U.S. economy is extremely weak or very strong. It goes up at either end of the spectrum, just like the smile on your face. Read more here.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
A severe affliction is blighting some of the world's largest economies. It has resulted in a record-breaking drop in business efficiency, and in turn that is harming economic growth. Analysts don’t see any quick answers.
Of course, this may sound like the terrible fallout from the coronavirus outbreak that began to grip the world earlier this year. But it’s a different matter entirely, without any of the human suffering but still plenty of economic angst. It’s about worker productivity. Read more here.
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