WSJ: President Johnson takes on the Fed Six decades Ago

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Inflation is elevated. Tax cuts have energized the economy. And the president and Federal Reserve chief are locked in battle over interest rates. 

Sound familiar?

While the challenge to the Fed’s independence isn’t an exact analog of today, where President Trump has repeatedly called on Fed Chief Jerome Powell and others to cut interest rates, it's what happened in 1965 as President Lyndon Johnson made an “unusual public expression of disapproval of the board’s action to increase interest rates by 0.5% point to 4.5%.

LBJ called the Fed Chairman and other top economic officials and laid into them. “You’ve got me in a position where you can run a rapier into me,” charged Johnson. 

Many business leaders of the time seemed worried about inflation. “I approve of the increase” because “all signs indicate we are in a spiral of inflation,” one business leader said.  

Others saw the president’s comments as simply political. “This [criticism] is just what you’d expect him to say,” said another business leader. “If the economy turns down, he can blame it on the Fed. If the economy continues doing well, everyone will forget.”

Ultimately, neither the Fed nor inflation backed down. READ MORE HERE.

Arnold Newman, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: How Much Do You Know About Black Friday and Cyber Monday? Take Our Quiz.

 

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Black Friday is almost here. But how much do you know about it?

For decades, the day after Thanksgiving has marked the start of the shopping rush for the holiday season. What was once a single-day event has now grown to include Thanksgiving Day, Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday.

Over the years, Black Friday has been surrounded by little-known details—and common misperceptions. Take our quiz and find out how much you really know.

1 OF 10

When was the term “Black Friday” first coined in reference to the retail industry?

2 OF 10

What company popularized the day after Thanksgiving as the start of the holiday shopping season?

3 OF 10

Shopping on the day after Thanksgiving has become a global event. How much money did people spend globally from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday last year?

Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Where Did This Bounce Back Come From?

Figures suggest there may be a light at the end of the tunnel for Britain’s manufacturing sector, which has faced years of struggles.

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

It’s a sector that has been blindsided again and again. First, manufacturing firms were hit with COVID-19 lockdowns. Then came a surge in energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. Supply chain-issues followed, along with higher interest rates and ultimately inflation. What else could go wrong?

Perhaps the sector has found a way to bounce back. One measure of its health, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), has steadily improved over the last 12 months, according to new data. As of October, the PMI was at 49.7, up from around 45 in March. While manufacturing slumped, executives were less willing to invest in new projects, says Ben Frost, a Korn Ferry senior client partner, EMEA. “There hasn’t been a positive outlook for a while,” he says. “But many executives are currently saying we need to activate these plans, and the time is now.”

Part of the turnaround has come from an increase in passenger-vehicle production following an interruption at one UK automaker. Still, experts forecast that the PMI is ripe to surpass 50 before year’s end. A PMI reading of 50+ indicates economic growth in the sector. The UK’s defense and aerospace subsector is also a bright spot, says Rory Singleton, a Korn Ferry senior client partner for the global industrial market. “We have world-leading companies in the subsector that should be seeing investment,” he observes. READ MORE HERE.

Majority of UK entrepreneurs say British government is ‘anti-business,’ new survey shows

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Britain’s reputation as a country full of get-up-and-go seems to have got up and left the kingdom. Much of the blame for that falls on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his colleagues, who led the left-leaning Labor Party to an epic victory in the middle of last year, but the landslide win hasn’t been good for the British economy.

The truth is that Britain’s primary income deficit — the difference between what the government raises from taxpayers compared to what it spends, excluding debt payments — has deteriorated rapidly over the last few years. In this year’s second quarter, the primary deficit totaled 16.8%, more than double the deficit in the fourth quarter of last year and the worst showing since the second quarter of 2023, according to government dat

"The biggest problem is the current British government is remorselessly negative," said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. "That’s not an environment to encourage investment." READ MORE HERE

Vaughan Leiberum from Cape Town, South Africa, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

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Inspire Creative Retreats 2026

 

Inspire Creative Retreats

2026

Art Retreats in Southern France

Hello!

Just to let you know, following the success of my wife's art retreat earlier this year, she's now offering two retreats in Southern France.

Hosted at a luxurious private villa in the medieval town of Cordes-sur-Ciel. You will be treated to a wonderful week of art, gourmet French food, and wine. Check out the retreats and book here: https://www.inspirecreativeretreats.com/2026-retreats

What Made Warren Buffett's Career So Remarkable who could be next as king or queen of investing?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Warren Buffett, 95, the so-called Oracle of Omaha, is set to step down by year-end as CEO of investment company Berkshire Hathaway. Over 60 years, he and his deputy, Charlie Munger, who died in 2023 at the age of 99, produced outstanding investment returns that made other investors’ returns pale in comparison.

Look at the numbers: From 1965, the year Buffett took over a struggling textile company, through the end of 2024, Berkshire’s shares rose 5,502,284%. That’s an annual compounded return of 19.9%. Over the same six decades, the S&P 500 index rose just 39,054% or 10.4% annually.

“Buffett is the most legendary investor in the history of investing,” says Adam Patti, CEO of exchange-traded fund company VistaShares. “And he has changed the way people invest.” Read more here.

 

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CONTINUED Commodities, AI Demand, and UK Political Turmoil reported on market trends

 @BatchelorShow and @RealConstabke reported on market trends among many other things.

LISTEN HERE

photographer not identified, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Commodities, AI Demand, and UK Political Turmoil. Guest: @RealConstable

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

 Constable reported on market trends with energy prices significantly down but metals like copper and steel consistently higher, reflecting strong demand particularly for AI data.

Simon Constable reported on market trends with energy prices significantly down, but metals like copper and steel consistently higher, reflecting strong demand particularly for AI data center construction. 

Meanwhile, future chocolate prices are projected to rise due to "transcontinental climate change" linking Amazon deforestation to political instability in major cocoa regions like the DRC. 

And in UK politics, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces constant internal revolts and distrust due to policy flip-flops, tax increases, and failure to solve the immigration problem.

LISTEN HERE.

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@RealConstable and @BatchelorShow analyze rare earth markets, noting China’s dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors.

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up

LISTEN HERE.

Christopher Macsurak, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Commodity Markets and UK Political Instability.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

@RealConstable and @BatchelorShow analyze rare earth markets, noting China’s dominance is achieved through undercutting prices and buying out competitors. Prices for key industrial commodities like copper and aluminum are up. Listen here.

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Barron’s: Europe Is Spending Big on Defense. Rheinmetall Benefits

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Germany-based defense company Rheinmetall’s stock has soared over the past few years and appears pricey. At the same time, investors seem to be optimistic for a further rally over the next 12 months. Read more here.

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WSJ: Financial Flashback -- 30 YEARS AGO: Dow 5000

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average standing today around 47000, it’s hard to get excited for every 1,000-point milestone. But 30 years ago was a different time for the Dow.

After passing the 4000 threshold in February 1995, the Dow industrials took only nine months to pass and close above 5000 — bringing cheers from the New York Stock Exchange floor.

As with many market parties, this one was started in large part by the Federal Reserve. After raising interest rates in 1994, the central bank began cutting them in July 1995 amid a belief that it had guided the economy to a “soft landing.” The result was that bond volatility fell, and stocks rallied.

“Typically, what goes down comes up,” says David Salem, a portfolio manager at Hedgeye Asset Management.

Market strategists at the time — pointing to falling interest rates, rising productivity and tame inflation — saw little reason for the party to end. Spectacular market gains would follow.

And while markets don’t celebrate like they used to, Salem sees some parallels between markets then and now. After raising rates to beat back inflation in 2022–23, the Fed began cutting rates last year and the Dow has surged.

 READ MORE HERE

Briefings Magazine: ‘It’s called commodity nationalism.’ The Global Race for Minerals

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For much of the post-WWII period, buying minerals such as copper, coal, or iron ore was simply a matter of money: Did you have it or not? If your company needed to purchase copper ore, it could get it from Chile, among other places. Likewise, the need for cobalt could be sated with supplies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, or Australia. It more or less didn’t matter which country was selling the product. But that practice of unfettered trade seems to be disappearing, fast — and it has nothing to do with the great tariff wars of 2025. Rather, it comes down to worries about national security.

Currently, there’s a global race to secure minerals and other commodities. To ensure their own growth, as well as protect and defend themselves, countries around the world want access to vital materials. “It’s called commodity nationalism,” says Pete Earle, director of economics and economic freedom at the American Institute for Economic Research. “Control over oil and minerals is becoming more important.”

It was COVID-era changes in international trade that first put the whole issue of supply chains into focus, says Bill Stone, chief investment officer and managing principal at the Glenview Trust Company in Louisville, Kentucky. That period highlighted how susceptible global trade was to interruptions, accidental or otherwise. “When the stakes get big enough, countries will hold back from selling precious materials to other countries,” he says. “The goal is to find their vulnerabilities.” READ MORE HERE.

FOX Biz: Macron scrambles to restore stability, reappoints ex-PM amid France’s budget crisis: Déjà vu all over again as new French PM back in the saddle

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Last Monday, France had a déjà vu moment with yet another French prime minister leaving the job. In this case, it was Sébastien Lecornu, who spent a mere 27 days in the role — a record low since 1958. By late Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron had reinstated Lecornu.

Lecornu stepped down amid a parliamentary stalemate over his inability to pass budgets and address other financial matters. It was also the day after he had established a cabinet. “One cannot serve as prime minister when the necessary conditions are not met,” he said in a speech Monday, according to Le Monde. The conditions required to get the French budget passed were absent, along with Social Security, he said. “[These are] matters that cannot wait until the 2027 presidential election,” he said.

Last Monday, France had a déjà vu moment with yet another French prime minister leaving the job. In this case, it was Sébastien Lecornu, who spent a mere 27 days in the role — a record low since 1958. By late Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron had reinstated Lecornu. Read more here.

Lecornu: U.S. Secretary of Defense, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Korn Ferry: Crying at Work: Another New Normal

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

The first year, the recent British graduate thought his job in finance was great. The London-based role was as advertised, and the pay was good.

But over time, the stress of the role ratcheted up higher and higher. One day it became too much. At his desk, he began to cry.

Weeping at work is now more common than it was a few decades ago, when it was often looked down upon. “There is definitely a generational change,” says Grant Duncan, Korn Ferry’s senior client partner, managing director and sector lead for consumer, EMEA. “Showing your emotions is more acceptable.”

Indeed, a recent survey across the United Kingdom found that one in three UK workers have cried at work over the previous 12 months. It was skewed by gender: 66% of those who cried were women, and 34% were men. “Women who cry at work often face a competence penalty, but men do not,” says Drew Hill, a senior client partner for Korn Ferry based in the firm’s London office. READ MORE HERE.

WSJ Financial Flashback: The 2005 Collapse of Refco

By SIMON CONSTABLE

 

20 YEARS AGO 

 

By SIMON CONSTABLE

 

Few people outside Wall Street pay too much attention to commodities traders. But on Oct. 10, 2005, one of the world’s largest commodities brokers, Refco, collapsed. It was shocking news about a seemingly ever-present fixture in the commodities world.

 

“It was kind of like a smaller version of the Enron collapse,” says Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth Management. It came on the heels of the 2002 Sarbanes–Oxley Act, designed to prevent accounting fraud.

 

The first news of the Refco collapse began when its CEO, Phillip Bennett, stepped down, following the firm’s discovery that another company controlled by Bennett owed Refco $430 million. The debt was described to investors as “receivables,” aka money owed to Refco. 

 

Following the discovery of the debt, Refco advised that financial statements from 2002

onward shouldn’t be relied upon. Refco stated that Bennett had repaid the debt, and the

company had notified authorities.

 

Bennett was sentenced to 16 years in prison in 2008. “Despite the best of intentions, I made an unacceptable and appalling error,” Bennett said at sentencing. He was released in 2020, a judge calling him a “model prisoner.”

 

READ MORE HERE.

Briefings Magazine: ‘ It’s called commodity nationalism.’ The Global Race for Minerals

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

For much of the post-WWII period, buying minerals such as copper, coal, or iron ore was simply a matter of money: Did you have it or not? If your company needed to purchase copper ore, it could get it from Chile, among other places. Likewise, the need for cobalt could be sated with supplies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, or Australia. It more or less didn’t matter which country was selling the product. But that practice of unfettered trade seems to be disappearing, fast—and it has nothing to do with the great tariff wars of 2025. Rather, it's worries about national security. 

Currently, there’s a global race to secure minerals and other commodities. To ensure their own growth, as well as protect and defend themselves, countries around the world want access to vital materials. “It’s called commodity nationalism,” says Pete Earle, director of economics and economic freedom at the American Institute for Economic Research. “Control over oil and minerals is becoming more important.”

Tt was COVID-era changes in international trade that first put the whole issue of supply chains into focus, says Bill Stone, chief investment officer and managing principal at the Glenview Trust Company in Louisville, Kentucky. That period highlighted how susceptible global trade was to interruptions, accidental or otherwise. “When the stakes get big enough, countries will hold back from selling precious materials to other countries,” he says. “The goal is to find their vulnerabilities.” READ more here.