By SIMON CONSTABLE
Over time, recessions come and go. It’s just a fact of life. And if one might be imminent, business leaders and politicians all want to know. After all, if a recession could be right around the corner, a company might want to cut back on expenses or hire new employees. But there’s a problem: Few predictions of these economic collapses are right.
Indeed, try as they might, economists are almost always missing the mark. In mid-2022, many all but promised an imminent US recession—one that still hasn’t shown up more than two years later. Likewise, the COVID-19 recession wasn’t widely foretold, nor the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. Mere months before the 1930s began, economists weren’t forecasting the Great Depression, says Jack Ablin, founding partner at wealth-management company Cresset Capital. “This isn’t a new phenomenon,” he says.
Famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith summed up the failure with a quip: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Other pundits substitute weather forecasters for astrologists. Nevertheless, the question remains: Why do economists get it so wrong so often? Read more here.
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