WSJ: The Riddle of the VIX Decoded

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The VIX is the label people commonly use for the recently renamed Cboe Volatility Index. What else it is isn’t always clear to investors.

The problem is that the VIX has become something of a Rorschach inkblot, with people projecting meaning into the index that perhaps isn’t there, such as signs of an impending market crash. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: US-Iran sanctions trial may hamper Turkey's struggling economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A bad economic situation is quickly deteriorating for Turkey.

Already the country is suffering from high inflation, big trade deficits and a plummeting currency.

And now a US sanctions-busting trial has cast a spotlight on the alleged corruption and malfeasance of the government in Ankara, which will make the matter even worse, analysts say. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Lowering Corporate Rate Is Crucial And Misrepresented

By SIMON CONSTABLE

This morning I had the privilege to be a guest on Joe Piscopo's Radio Show in New York City. He was, of course, delightful.

One pertinent topic he asked about was the tax reform bill which is winding its way through Congress. The answer is worth repeating because the role of tax rates in business often gets misrepresented. Read more here.

Joe Piscopo Show: The Tax Cuts Matter

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: Worrying Data Raises Recession Fears

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Just when you thought the economy looked solid, up pops a worrying statistic.

The growth of commercial and industrial loans has fallen precipitously this year. Read more here.

U.S. News: Why U.S. Stocks Will Beat Europe and China in 2018

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Next year looks set to be a good one for U.S. stocks, which are expected to plow far ahead of those in other key regions in the world, analysts say. 

The forecast for the U.S. economy, which is by far the largest in the world, is solid with GDP growth expected to average 2.5 percent over 2018, according to a recent report from Goldman Sachs. If the projection comes true it will be double the 1.2 percent rate reached during 2016's second quarter, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: Swamp Creatures Outperform The Market

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Photo by Max Harlynking on Unsplash

Barron's: A Cold December Could Heat Up Wheat Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A BRUTAL COLD SNAP IN DECEMBER IS LIKELY, ACCORDING TO SOME FORECASTERS, and it could lift winter wheat prices higher than $5 a bushel, up more than a dollar from recent prices. A rally would aid the much-beleaguered farm economy, which has been hurt by steadily falling wheat prices since mid-2012. Read more here.

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P+I: ETFs offer plethora of risk management alternatives

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some of the biggest exchange-traded funds now have bid-ask spreads lower than the underlying securities they hold.

There are multiple reasons, but a significant part of the answer is that these investment vehicles offer a more favorable investing alternative for the institutions that buy and sell them. Read more here.

Photo by Joshua Mayo on Unsplash

U.S. News: Don't Let Dire Market Forecasts Shake You

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The headlines are frequent and give a scare to investors who take a glass-half-full-view of the stock market.

• "Black Monday Is Coming Again," warns the Daily Express.
• "Investors, This Is Your Last Warning About the U.S. Stock Market," cautions MarketWatch.
• "Crash Fears Escalate As Markets Hit Highs Not Seen Since Black Tuesday and Dot-Com Disaster," moans the Daily Telegraph.

Should you sell your stocks when the pundits say a crash is looming? Read more here.

At Work At the Middle East Monitor Conference

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you are interested in a copy of the presentation please send a note via the contact form. 

Forbes: Templar History Shows Leaders High On Power Get Toppled

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Business chiefs listen up, especially in the world of big tech where egos are becoming rather inflated.

There's a vital message for those who get too powerful tucked into a new book: One day you'll draw the ire of someone more powerful, and they will attempt to destroy you.

The caution, although not explicit, comes in the epic story of the warrior monks known as the Knights Templar whose activities have given rise to much speculation and theories, some reasonable and some absurd.

Expert history writer Dan Jones digs deep for the facts and chronicles their history in his recently published book The Templars: The Rise and Fall of God's Holy Warriors. It is published by Viking in the U.S., and by Head of Zeus in the U.K. Read more here.

Forbes: How To Profit From "The Swamp"

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Ouch! Things aren't going quite as planned in the Capitol. But nevermind, there is a silver lining to the cloud, from which you can profit.

The issue is that so far President Trump hasn't "drained the swamp" of Washington D.C.'s ways, as he promised to do so. But you can take full advantage of the lack of reform by making some money for yourself. It is perfectly legal and relatively simple. Read more here.

Photo by James Morden on Unsplash

Constable Confidential: Speaking at Middle East Monitor Saudi Arabia Conference

Crisis in Saudi Arabia: War, Succession and the Future

Sat 18 November 2017

09:30 – 17:00 GMT

183 Euston Road, Bloomsbury

NW1 2BE

London

Sign up here.

Barron's: 3 Reasons Oil Prices Are Headed Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for a surge in oil prices.

Three reasons point to substantially higher prices over the next few months, even though West Texas Intermediate crude already has rallied to a two-year high above $57 a barrel. One way to play the possibility that petroleum powers toward $90 would be to buy March-dated futures contracts for light sweet crude on the CME. Alternatively, try the United States Oil (ticker: USO) exchange-traded fund, which tracks near-term futures prices for crude. Read more here. 

Photo by David Thielen on Unsplash

Forbes: Ukraine's Famine Shows Deadly Socialism At Its Core

By SIMON CONSTABLE

One hundred years after the communist revolution of 1917, and how quickly we forget the horrors of the past.

A case in point is the third of millennials who support socialism, according to a recent survey from Harvard. These young people may not have forgotten just how bad such a centrally planned society is, probably because they never knew. But that's ok because a recently published book should help enlighten them.

Anne Applebaum's Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine describes in gruesome detail the plight of Ukrainians under the Soviet system starting in 1917. She then takes us through the 1920s to the famine of 1933 when an estimated 4.5 million, or more than one-in-10 of Ukraine's population, died directly and indirectly as a result of the catastrophe. Most of the deaths from the famine of 1933 came in the first half of the year, according to research cited in the book. Read more here.

U.S. News: Which Companies Spend the Most on Lobbyists?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Can a company’s efforts in lobbying pay off on Wall Street? It sounds too easy of an idea, but there may be some basis in fact. In 2014, a team of researchers from Vanderbilt, Wake Forest and the University of Zurich drew a correlation between the amount of money spent on lobbying and market performance, outperforming their peers by 5.5 percent over a three-year period. Using data provided by OpenSecrets.com, here are the 10 publicly traded companies spending the most on lobbying in 2017. Read more here.

WSJ: How to Measure ETF Spreads

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors don’t always pay attention to bid-ask spreads. And those who do may find that comparing spreads between different exchange-traded funds can get tricky.

In essence, the bid-ask spread is the difference between the highest price that a market maker is willing to pay for an asset and the lowest price a market maker is willing to accept to sell it. The wider the spread, the more it costs investors for a round-trip trade—that is, to buy an asset and then sell it again. Read more here.

WSJ: An ETF Is Driven by Electric-Car Batteries

By SIMON CONSTABLE

With the prospects for a mass market in electric cars improving, the batteries that power them may provide an opportunity for investors.

Governments around the world are implementing regulations aimed at phasing out gasoline-powered vehicles, brightening the outlook for significant growth in the electric-car market, says Jay Jacobs, director of research at exchange-traded funds provider Global X Management Co. in New York. Read more here.

Photo by Michael Marais on Unsplash

WSJ: If You’re Trading Options on ETFs, Read This First

By SIMON CONSTABLE

More individual investors are trading options on exchange-traded funds. The trend worries some financial experts, who say inexperienced traders may not fully understand the risks.

Interest in ETF options comes amid growth in the number of ETFs and the amount of money invested in them. According to Options Clearing Corp., a clearinghouse that guarantees trades, ETF options accounted for 41% of the total volume of all options traded in 2016, up from 35% in 2014. Read more here.

Photo by Nick Chong on Unsplash

U.S. News: India Stocks Remain a Great Long-Term Play

By SIMON CONSTABLE

On track to unseat China and become the world's most populous country, India's economy has some growing pains. But there are still great opportunities there for investors looking to expand their portfolios into an emerging market. Read more here.

Taj Mahal, India

Photo by Sylwia Bartyzel on Unsplash

P.J. Media: More Catalonias to Come: Spain a Symptom of EU Economic Structure

By SIMON CONSTABLE

They’ve done it! Catalonia declared independence from Spain today.

To the casual observer, the move may look like a strictly Spanish squabble. Indeed, much media focus will now be on whether Spain’s government in Madrid, which has now promised direct rule over the province, will start acting like a latter-day General Franco, the country’s fascist dictator from 1939 through 1975.

In short, will tanks roll in, or just the police?

Symptoms of Economic Illness

Unfortunately, the dispute between Barcelona and Madrid isn’t just a Spanish affair. It is a symptom of the European Union’s inflexible economic structure. Read more here.

P.J. Media: 2017: The Year Obamacare Truly Became the Vampire Law

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you aren’t sitting down right now, it may be wise to do so. Your wallet could be about to get cleaned out.

Premiums for the most popular Obamacare health insurance plans will jump by a whopping 34 percent next year. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: Double-whammy of Middle East geopolitics may add fuel to oil-price rally

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A double-whammy of Middle East geopolitics threatens to propel oil prices higher.

The first whammy is the growing military conflict between Iraqi forces and the Kurds that may interrupt energy supplies.

A second punch revolves around increasing tensions between the Trump administration and the Islamic Republic of Iran. It may lead to the reintroduction of harsh US sanctions, including a ban on buying Iranian crude oil. Read more here.

StreetFight: Brand-building Expert Norty Cohen to Marketers: Consumer Engagement Is Key

By Simon Constable

Some local marketers have the wrong end of the stick. That’s the message from veteran brand expert, Norty Cohen CEO of St. Louis-based ad and creative agency Moosylvania. The company produces an annual report on the Top 100 global brands.

What he learned from that research has now been made into a book on the matter of how to market in what amounts to a brand new world for brands. Its titled “The Participation Game: How The Top 100 Brands Build Loyalty In A Skeptical World,” and was published last month by Ideapress Publishing. Read more here.

P.J. Media: Another Reason for Investors to Fear Unions

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to jobs growth, legal protections for organized labor may be something of a curse particularly when there is a union election.

That’s bad news for any company with a union that also wants an influx of cash to help grow. Read more here.

U.S. News: If Precious Metals Rally, Then Pick Silver

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Precious metals could be just the right thing to put a shine in your portfolio. But which metal should you pick – gold, or its scrappy sidekick, silver?

There's a case to be made for silver over gold, at least for people looking to hold the commodity for at least a year or two. Read more here.

Photo by Ramiro Pianarosa on Unsplash

Forbes: Why The Market Has Surged Under Trump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some people aren't going to like this, but the market seems to love President Trump.

Since election day last year through last Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund, which tracks the S&P 500, is up more than 17%, not including dividends. By most standard measures, that's a phenomenal return. It is also multiple times the gains shown in the same period a year earlier.

The overarching thing about the market is that it is amoral. It cares about little except future profits, dividends, and cash flows. Other stuff, not so much. When it comes to the money matters, there are specific reasons that investors feel more confident about stocks now. Here are some:

P.J. Media: A Race to the Bottom in Britain as Parties Offer Plans for Housing Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Fall is political party conference season in Britain. This year, it's also the scene of a race to the bottom for dismal economic policies.

All the major parties have offered up some economic ideas that are worse than useless, but winning by a mile is the ultra-left Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn. Read more here.

Forbes: Could Hurricane Ophelia Cause A U.S. Market Crash?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Mother nature could have a nasty surprise in store for investors.

A market crash just like we saw in 1987 could be triggered this weekend if Hurricane Ophelia hits the British Isles.

If it happens, it will be just in time for the 30th anniversary of the crash of 1987. Read more here.

U.S. News: Should You Ride the Electric Car Trend?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Is the buzz over electric vehicles worthwhile for investors looking to get in on the ground floor of the emerging technology?

As with all industries in their infancy, there are risks and rewards. 

The world is on deathwatch for gasoline vehicles. Increasingly, governments are approving regulations that would faze out the use of gasoline-powered vehicles. Norway wants to stop the sale of fossil-fueled vehicles by 2025. France and India want to nix gasoline engines in new cars by 2040 and 2030, respectively according to Global X Funds. It's likely that governments around the world will jump on the bandwagon. Read more here.

Photo by John Cameron on Unsplash

Forbes: Bank of England -- Not Just Any Old Central Bank

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It is a curious thing that while the Federal Reserve (Fed) garners much hatred in the U.S., the same is not true of the Bank of England (BoE.) Both are, of course, two of the most important central banks in the world. But maybe the sour view of the Fed comes from American animus toward all central banks.

Whatever the reason the Bank of England holds a special place in the psyche of Britons. That fondness is no doubt enhanced by the majestic building in which it sits at the heart of London's financial district.

Its story is detailed in Till Time's Last Sand; A History of the Bank of England 1694-2013 by David Kynaston, and is set to publish in the U.S. in November. In Britain, it was out in September under the same title. Read more here.

Forbes: The Tumult In U.K.'s Ruling Party Shows What Leadership Is All About

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forget the corporate claptrap.

When it comes to leadership, there's only one thing that matters. The example of British Prime Minister Theresa May shows this in spades. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is the Household Economic Stress Index?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The PNC U.S. Household Economic Stress Index is something that smart investors might want to watch. As the name suggests, it is a measure of how stressed U.S. consumers are on an aggregate basis.

“It’s a variation on the misery index,” says Stuart G. Hoffman, senior economic adviser at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. Read more here.

Photo by Elisa Ventur on Unsplash

WSJ: Four Reasons You Might Want to Avoid the Lowest-Cost ETFs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It has become something of a given that when investors are trying to choose between two fairly similar funds, they should pick the one with the lowest expense ratio. While that may be good advice when it comes to many types of funds, it isn’t always the case with exchange-traded funds and notes.

Here are four cases where the lowest-cost ETF might not be the best choice: 

P.J. Media: Free College Has a Price, as the UK Has Proven

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Listen up, Bernie Sanders.

Your suggestion of free public college could be disastrous for the very people you want to help.

Just look across the pond to the UK. It didn't work so well there. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Economic Growth Really Matters

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For many people who don't focus on the economy, the concept of economic growth can seem a little abstract.

That's a problem because it really does matter.

Take, for instance, the recently published memoir A Land Girl's Tale by Mona McLeod which details life in rural Scotland during WWII.

It shows in stark detail how far the world has come. Or if you like, it shows how poor we were then relative to our living standards now. Read more here.

U.S. News: How Weakness in the Dollar Affects Wall Street

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The greenback took a swoon this year, and it's affecting your investments. But that's good news for U.S. stocks. 

Since the end of last year, the value of the greenback dropped 20 percent. On Dec. 28, 2016, the trade-weighted dollar index versus the major currencies of the world was 96.9, but it steadily fell to 87.1 recently, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. And that's even with a small rally in the dollar last week. Read more here.

Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash

Street Fight: How a New Active Wear Brand Takes on the Big Guys

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Activewear company Vuori Clothing may have launched just two years ago, but it has already morphed from its original focus.

The California-based firm started as a brand focused on yoga wear for men, and was (and still is) heavily reliant on using hyper-local marketing efforts to build brand awareness. Former D&G model Joe Kudla founded the company in 2015 at which time Nikki Sakelliou joined as the VP of Marketing. Read more here.

Funk Dooby from Kent, UK, CC BY-SA 2.0, 

via Wikimedia Commons

P.J. Media: Despite Legislative Setbacks, Trump Winning War on Regulations

By SIMON CONSTABLE

President Trump might not be winning when it comes to shuffling legislation through Congress, but the same cannot be said when it comes to regulatory rollback.

On the latter matter, his actions set a historic precedent. That is likely good for the economy and may help explain the surging stock market.

“There’s a massive movement on regulations in the first few months of Trump,” says David Ranson, director of research at HCWE & Co.

How massive? As Mr. Trump might say, it’s Bigly. Read more here.

U.S. News: What Changes In Emerging Markets Mean for Your Investments

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Recent tweaks emerging market indexes and economic growth rates show the changing nature of investing in the category.

The changes this year are part of a process that will likely continue over the coming years, so it behooves savvy investors to pay close attention. Read more here.

P.J. Media: Fed Suggestion That Hurricanes are Good for Economy? Hardly

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The Federal Reserve is starting to look as absurd as a character from Alice in Wonderland.

Earlier this month, an official of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggested that the hurricanes that devastated Florida and the metropolitan Houston area would be good for the economy. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: Iran nuclear deal may be dead within weeks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The Iran nuclear deal could be dead by mid-October, and the potential collapse of the agreement, which lifted sanctions on Iran last year, may send crude prices higher by $10 a barrel.

This is the assessment of one analyst who both understands how the politics of Washington work and also has deep knowledge of the global energy market. Read more here.

Photo by Johannes Daleng on Unsplash

U.S. News: Why Global Stocks Should Surge From Here

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Global stocks look set to surge from here.

It's because they are about to pass a significant earnings milestone. Here's what's happening and why it's good news for equity investors.

Earnings per share for all the public companies in the world could be about to surpass $30, according to a recent report from brokerage company Charles Schwab. The firm bases that figure on an analysis of consensus EPS estimates for the next 12 months for the stocks in the MSCI All Country World Index. Read more here.

Forbes: U.K. Politician Offers Cure For Housing That Is Worse Than The Disease

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A leading British politician just announced a policy that would be worse than the economic disease its designed to solve.

The man in question is Sir. Vince Cable, leader of the U.K. Liberal Democrat party who has taken aim at Britain's appalling housing crisis. Read more here.

Forbes: Forget Full-time Work, Gigs Can Be Safer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Hardly a week goes by without someone lamenting the rise of the so-called "gig economy" where freelancers cobble together income from multiple sources. The common complaints are that there's no security in freelance work and that such workers are exploited.  The frequent call to action is that companies should create more permanent jobs because that would give workers more security.

Such claims and calls to action defy logic.

Consider the following here.

Forbes: Napoleon Hill's Lessons On Creativity

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A lot of business people confuse what it means to be creative. They frequently talk about creativity as if artists and filmmakers are the only ones endowed with such ability in significant quantity and quality.

While this view is commonplace, it doesn't make the observation accurate.

Step forward iconic self-help author Napoleon Hill with a previously obscure book How to Own Your Own Mind. It is scheduled for republication September 19. It was "first compiled in 1941," and then forgotten, according to the publisher. Whatever happened it's back and worth a read. More here.

John Batchelor Show: Remembering 9/11. Bull on Turkey and gold. Bear on Bitcoin.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Photo by LunarHunter,

CC BY-SA 4.0, 

via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. News: When Should I Sell Stocks?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When is it a good time to sell stocks? There is certainly a case to do so now.

The major indexes have surged these past two years. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 25.3 percent in the 24 months, while the Dow Jones industrial average grew 33.3 percent. That equates to annualized returns of approximately 12 and 15 percent, respectively. None of the figures include dividends. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: Investor love affair with Turkey may end in tears

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The recent war of words between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shows there’s no love lost between the two leaders. 

But the same cannot be said about investors who have become increasingly captivated by Turkish stocks over the past year. The vast sums of money flowing into the market are a sign of a solid economy, but there are growing concerns that things are becoming unbalanced, analysts say. Read more here.