Forbes: Doomed? Why Iran's Economic Mess Will Get Worse

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Iran's economy is already a mess, but it will likely get a lot worse.

The matter at hand is the decision earlier this month by the Trump administration not to certify the so-called nuclear deal, and that means Iran will soon be subject to harsh U.S. sanctions. Overall the result will be a squeezed economy. Read more here.

Forbes: Spoilt For Choice -- Are There Too Many Mutual Funds & ETFs?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to selecting an exchange-traded fund or a mutual fund the choice just keeps getting larger.

In general, more alternatives would seem to be a better thing, but with investing it does the opposite and makes matters worse. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: In the UK, a Brawl from Within

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Nobody would have expected it to be easy. But in her efforts to manage Britain’s exit from the European Union, Prime Minister Theresa May has a new potential stumbling block: her own team. 

News broke over the weekend that at least a dozen cabinet ministers in the ruling Conservative party do not back May’s proposed plan for what she calls a “customs partnership.” Under that arrangement, Britain would continue to collect tariffs—essentially import taxes—for the EU even when the country leaves the bloc. 

Unfortunately for Britain’s leader, possibly as many as 15 of her 28-strong cabinet don’t back the idea. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson even called the plan “crazy.”  Read more here.

Mentioned in the press

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Read more here.

Darden Magazine: Hard Work and Dedication Carry UVA Darden’s Loutskina to Success in Classroom, Research

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It may be hard for some people to remember back to 2006 when the housing boom was still in full swing. But University of Virginia Darden School of BusinessProfessor Elena Loutskina certainly won’t forget it in a hurry. In hindsight, that year now looks pivotal to her career, although at the time what happened probably resembled a bad-news-good-news situation. Read more here.

University of Virginia

Photo by Ryan Ledbetter on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: Hitting the Panic Button on Brexit

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The collapse that had been widely feared has not happened, and economic indicators are chugging along fine. But Britain’s industry chiefs are still fretting over Brexit—and in a big very way. Read more here.

Forbes: How Trump's Move On Iran Helps Saudi Arabia

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bad news for some, is good news for others.

A case in point is the end of American participation in the Iran nuclear deal.

It is certainly bad news for Iran, but it could be quite the opposite for Saudi Arabia. Read more here.

President Trump & Vice President Pence 

Photo by History in HD on Unsplash

WSJ: What Is A 'Sudden Stop' In the Markets?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

People who invest in emerging economies should be aware that sometimes market sentiment can take a sharp turn for the worse very quickly.

It’s what economists such as Daniel Lacalle of London-based money-management firm Tressis call a sudden stop. Read more here.

Photo by Joshua Hoehne on Unsplash

WSJ: Some Active Managers Smile at the Index-Fund Robots

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Since the financial crisis there has been a consistent mantra around investing: Low-cost index funds makes the most sense because they are generally cheaper and perform better over long periods than mutual funds managed by stock pickers.

But now, some active managers are taking a new tack in making the case for their approach: They say the popularity of indexing, along with other changes in the market, is making it easier for them to find mispriced securities, resulting in a more fertile environment for stock picking than they’ve had in years. Read more here.

Photo by Jason Leung on Unsplash

WSJ: Bull Markets Die of Old Age. But Is That Conventional Wisdom Wrong?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Is anxiety over how long this bull market will last overdone? Possibly, according to new research that suggests the life expectancy of bull markets not only doesn’t decline with age—it may actually grow.

“Once a bull market is five years old, its remaining life expectancy doesn’t diminish. If anything, it increases,” financial research firm HCWE & Co. said in a recent report. Read more here.

Nathaniel Ritmeyer, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Korn Ferry: Wages and Benefits are Rising; So Is CEO Anxiety

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s seemingly great news, American wages and benefit levels are growing at their fastest levels in years. But while U.S. workers are cheering, the speed of the growth is forcing some leaders into facing some difficult questions about the employment costs. 

New government data showed that the costs of U.S. salaries and benefits surged in first three months of 2018. Wages grew at an annualized 2.7% clip in the first three months of 2018, the fastest increase since the Great Recession. Meanwhile, benefits costs jumped at 2.6% annualized pace, the quickest since 2015. But many executives remember that it was not even a decade ago that they were doing everything to make sure their company survived following the financial crisis, says Bob Wesselkamper, global leader rewards and benefits solutions for Korn Ferry. “They are still acutely aware that raising your cost base isn’t wise,” he says. Read more here.

Photo by Uday Mittal on Unsplash

PJ Media: ObamaCare Could be Driving People to Drink, Study Finds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Do you want a case of vodka with your ObamaCare this year? Or perhaps a barrel of brandy?

More people do than used to be the case, and it ain’t pretty.

Only a few years into the Obama’s signature healthcare law, also known as the Affordable Care Act, and more Americans have taken to the bottle, according to new research. Read more here.

Photo by Giovanna Gomes on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: The To-Do List of London’s Newest Finance Leader

It has been an attention-grabbing scenario at one of the world's most visible financial institutions. Now the London Stock Exchange is getting a new leader who will face a host of challenges. 

Experts say industry disruptions like the ones facing David Schwimmer, the 49-year-old Goldman Sachs alumnus and soon-to-be CEO, are never easy, and will only become harder given the broader competition financial exchanges are facing across the globe. Indeed, few exchanges today have a lock on business the way they once did, and in the UK, the shadow of Brexit is never very far away from any financial institution. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Your Next Corporate Benefit, Yoga Class

It’s been a great year at Company X, and already there are rumors it’s preparing to offer workers a host of new benefits. Will it be more vacations days? Changes in retirement plans? Actually, it might be stress reduction programs.

According to a recent joint study by Korn Ferry and the human resources organization WorldatWork, companies are going all-in to help workers lead healthier—and presumably longer—lives. Two out of three employers offer stress reduction programs that include yoga and massage, a jump from just over half in the year before. Telemedicine is making huge inroads, too: Three-quarters of those companies offer the service, allowing workers to access healthcare professionals by phone. Read more here.

Barron's: How to Play Iran Sanctions and $80 Crude

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Crude-Oil prices are set to jump because—contrary to popular belief—President Donald Trump is likely to reintroduce harsh sanctions on Iran by mid-May. Read more here.

Forbes: Is Economics Going Back To The 1800s? Maybe So

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some economics thinking seems to have gone backward in time. How far back? At least as far as the nineteenth century.

That's the observation of  Robert Wright, professor of political economy at Augustana University in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. He's also an eminent economic historian.

He sees the resurgence of three economic ideas that were more at home in the 1800s than in the twenty-first century. Read more here.

Internet Archive Book Images, 

No restrictions, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Iran's Futile Gesture Mirrors Venezuela's Economic Idiocy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Iran's leaders seem to have contracted a case of economic idiocy.

Let's hope it's not infectious.

Mid-April, the Islamic Republic announced it would start to denominate its holdings of official assets in euros instead of U.S. dollars.

The news comes during a period of fast-deteriorating diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington, which makes the currency denomination change look like a way for the Iranian leadership to snub the U.S.

Unfortunately, for people of Iran, the decision would seem to be both futile in the near term and one that would auger yet more pain for the already beleaguered economy in the future. Read more here.

Mentioned in the Press: The Columbian

In Our View: Trump Trips on Trade

Read more here.

Forbes: Finally, A Boss Gets The Message On Social Media

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A captain of industry in Britain has done something both smart and courageous.

He has decided to shutter the company's social media accounts for all of its hundreds of outlets. It is something that other business leaders should consider doing too! Read more here.

P.J. Media: Oxycontin Tweak Helped Turn Addicts to Heroin

By SIMON CONSTABLE

 Lawmakers trying to combat the epidemic of opioid addiction might want to take note of the law of unintended consequences.

It can lead to the most unfortunate results.

A case in point is getting prescription painkillers off the streets might not have the effect of reducing addiction deaths. It might instead merely move the problem. At least that's the finding of some recently published research from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Read more here.

Barron's: Oil Prices Haven’t Peaked Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

They Said What? Read more here.

PJ Media: Food Stamp Cuts Would Bite Into States That Voted for Trump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Republicans may have a problem taking a bite out of the food stamp program.

The matter comes down to two things. First, the states with the highest portion of food stamp recipients overwhelmingly voted for the GOP in the last election. Second, any cuts to the program will no doubt be portrayed by Democrats as “hating everyone.”

While it may be possible to streamline the program, those in Congress will need to navigate a complicated political minefield. Read more here.

Forbes: Don't Conflate Tariffs With Sanctions, They're Quite Different

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Not even close. To think so, would be to equate legal products such as beer with illicit drugs such as heroin.

Neither does the increase in some tariffs mean we are in a trade war. To think that, then you'd have to believe a lover's tiff is equivalent to dropping 1,000 tons of napalm on a village. It isn't of course. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Halal Investing?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Many people understand what halal food is—meals allowed under Islamic dietary laws. Halal is Arabic for “permissible.”

But what about halal investing? Read more here.

Elekes Andor, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: Corn Prices as High as an Elephant’s Eye?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

THE PRICE OF CORN COULD SOAR TO $8 A BUSHEL, A LEVEL NOT SEEN SINCE 2012, and more than double last Thursday’s closing price of $3.895. 

An unusual confluence of factors could propel prices higher over the next couple of years. These include declining output, an ethanol-led demand surge in China, and likely brutal weather. “Eight dollars is very possible,” says Shawn Hackett, author of the Hackett Money Flow Report newsletter, who adds that declining supplies will run headlong into increased Chinese demand. 

Traders wanting to profit from the rally should consider buying futures for July 2019 delivery. Note: The trading volume of such long-dated futures is significantly lower than for front-month contracts, which makes trading more expensive. Alternatively, consider the Teucrium Corn exchange-traded fund (ticker: CORN), which tracks corn futures.  Read more here.

Forbes: How To Help Colleagues Suffering Mental Illness

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The chances are high you'll eventually end up working with people who battle mental illness.

One-in-five adults get afflicted annually, according to the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI.) So even if you haven't worked with someone who suffers depression or similar, sooner or later you will. For many folks in the buttoned-up corporate world, that's a frightening thought, probably because they have no idea what it means.

Still, it behooves us all to understand better our colleagues who sometimes get sick in this way. Understanding goes a long way.

How can you learn about it without visiting the psych ward?  You could do far worse than read the recently published Walk A Mile: Tales of a Wandering Loon by Chris Young. Read more here.

Korn Ferry Institute: A Change of Tune for IPOs?

The leaders at Spotify thought something as basic as listening to music could be successfully turned on its head. This week they’re seeing if a process that’s a little more complex, selling shares to investors, could also be altered.

The world’s largest streaming music service has its initial public stock offering, or IPO, on Tuesday. But instead of having the sale managed by investment bankers—which is what nearly every large firm does when it first goes public—Spotify is selling its shares directly to investors. If the IPO goes well (its shares opened at $165.90 each, well above the offering price) it could make the company worth about $30 billion while saving the company millions in Wall Street fees. Plus, a successful direct-to-investor IPO could convince other private firms to go down the same route. “We have technology disrupting every single thing we do in life, and this IPO is a metaphor as to how Wall Street needs to adapt,” says Noah Schwarz, senior client partner in Korn Ferry’s Financial Services practice. Read more here.

Forbes: The Facts About Food Stamp Fraud

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's too much misinformation about the U.S. government's food stamp scheme.

So after some investigation, here are some facts about the benefit which is also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, (SNAP.)

The takeaway is that food stamp fraud ballooned during the four years through 2016. Read more here.

Forbes: Venezuela's Latest Economic Idiocy -- Money With Fewer Zeros

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Socialism seems to require a special kind of stupidity.

Take, for instance, Venezuela's latest move to tackle the country's ruinous hyperinflation. Read more here.

Photo by Jeremith.DP, 

CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Mid East Eye: Middle East oil producers benefit from Venezuela's economic woes

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Venezuela’s economic woes just got even worse, but that's likely a blessing for the oil-rich nations of the Middle East.

Last week the Latin American country, which is also rich in oil resources, got slapped with US sanctions. It’s just the latest problem for the socialist government and will make it even harder for the country to pump oil.

Venezuela's oil problems are set to give a helping hand to the Middle East, especially those countries that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), because a drop off from Venezuela’s output allows energy-rich Middle East countries to increase their production rates. Read more here.

Forbes: Facebook Scandal -- How Many Cockroaches Are There?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Facebook is in a pickle over the Cambridge Analytica data sharing scandal.

That much is clear.

The big question now is simple: What other scandals, if any, will emerge from the social media giant? Or more simply, how many cockroaches are there? Read more here.

Photo by Alexander Shatov on Unsplash

Forbes: No, We Really Don't Need Government Regulation Of The Tech Industry

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Calls for government regulation of the tech business would be laughable if they weren't so sad.

The truth is that the government proved beyond reasonable doubt its inability to effectively regulate during the financial crisis. In that light, calls for the government to now impose and administer new rules on an equally complex industry seem preposterous. Read more here.

Joe Piscopo Show: Talking Economics

By SIMON CONSTABLE

I'm on around 20 mins past the hour

Forbes: What Worries Wall Street About Facebook?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Facebook has had a bad week with the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

In the wake of revelations that data on perhaps more than 50 million Facebook users was shared, the stock has come under pressure, shedding around 10% in the week from last Friday through Thursday. Read more here.

Photo by Alexander Shatov on Unsplash

Middle East Eye: Cash Fleeing Saudi Arabia

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A torrent of money has fled Saudi Arabia as a result of its struggling economy.
It’s bad news for a country that is desperately trying to shed its dependence on the energy business and refashion its economy for a post-oil world.

New research shows the kingdom saw tens of billions of dollars of capital leave the kingdom each year from 2012 up to and including last year. Next year there will be more of the same, states the March-dated report from the DC-based think tank, the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Read more here.

Jedda, Saudi Arabia

Photo by mohammed alorabi on Unsplash

Middle East Eye: Rising US interest rates may damage Gulf economies

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some oil-rich Gulf States have barely recovered from the oil market slump, yet now they face a new potential threat to their economies. Rising US interest rates may crimp growth or worse, send some countries back into recessions from which they just emerged.

It is all happening because the countries in question have an unusual arrangement for their currencies: the value of their money is fixed against the US dollar. The situation has some significant benefits but also some downsides, such as right now when the cost of borrowing money is rising. Read more here.

P.J. Media: Job-Creation Gap Widens Economic Red State-Blue State Divide

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The U.S. isn’t just politically divided -- it’s also economically divided.

New research says the two go hand-in-glove together.

There are the haves and the have-nots. Increasingly, the red states, which tend to vote Republican, are trailing far behind the blue states, which tend to vote Democrat, according to a recently published study. Worse still, the divide is getting wider. Read more here.

Forbes: How The Sun's Activity Could Auger An Economic Change

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Once upon a time, people would worship the sun as a deity. It was with good reason that they did so for the sun provided much of what sustains life on our small planet, warmth and bountiful harvests. How would we survive if the sun stopped beating down on us? It was a real fear.

Then came science and industrialization. As the new era took over, we mostly forgot the sun and its importance to our existence. (Of course, most people occasionally complain that it is either too sunny or not sunny enough.)

But just because we stopped paying close attention doesn't mean that it lost any of its importance to our world. And neither does the fact that the life of the sun is far more complex than many people realize. Indeed, if we are to believe the experts, the sun's behavior is about to change in a way that could have dramatic consequences for the food we eat and the broader economy. Read more here.

P.J. Media: How Tillerson Could Push Gasoline Prices Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Brace yourself! You could soon be paying more for gasoline.

The price you pay at the pump gets determined by a few different things, but unfortunately for consumers the risks mostly seem pointed in the wrong direction.

The key factors to watch are the supply of oil, demand for oil, and the availability of the refineries to convert crude oil into gasoline. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: Change to Saudi bankruptcy law should give economy a boost

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Saudi Arabia is changing its bankruptcy laws in a move that should help the country diversify its economy away from oil.

The change, which came from King Salman in February, will undoubtedly help boost much-needed foreign investment in the kingdom. That’s because, up until now, there has not been a satisfactory way to deal with an insolvent corporation. That’s a significant disincentive to foreign and domestic business people to set up shop in the country.

“The lack of bankruptcy legislation has acted as a key deterrent to entrepreneurs in Saudi Arabia as well as to the willingness of local banks to provide financing to business start-ups,” states a recent report from Capital Economics. Read more here.

Joe Pispoco Show: Talking Steel Tariffs

By SIMON CONSTABLE



Listen here.

WSJ: What Are FROGs?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s a new acronym out there that may have implications for investors. It’s FROGs, or frivolously related output gaps.

An output gap is the difference between an economy’s actual and potential gross domestic product. FROGs refer to output-gap estimates for certain eurozone countries that appear to be unusually small, according to a recently published analysis from the Institute of International Finance, based in Washington, D.C. Read more here.

Photo by USGS on Unsplash

WSJ: A VIX-Related Fund Did Go ‘Poof’

By SIMON CONSTABLE

They were warned. 

February’s burst of market volatility was the death knell for VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term exchange-traded note (XIV), designed to make a high-wire bet that markets would stay calm. Read more here.

Photo by Stephen Hocking on Unsplash

Briefings: The Dark Side of Pay Raises

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The word is out and it is surely much-needed news for workers at all levels: After a decade of barely keeping pace with inflation, experts say, wages are poised to rise significantly in the United States. That matches what countries in emerging markets have already seen, and is expected to help nudge paychecks in Europe up as well. But for companies, of course, there’s a bottom line and talent-jarring impact from any increase. The big question is how disruptive the Year of the Pay Raise will turn out to be. Read more here.

Photo by Emilio Takas on Unsplash

PJ Media: Identifying Drive is Critical to Job Retraining Initiatives

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to retraining displaced workers, President Trump hit the bull's-eye on a target at which few politicians take aim.

“Let's invest in workforce development and let's invest in job training, which we need so badly,” he said January’s State of the Union address.

Retraining is needed badly, which will become increasingly evident as technology displaces jobs in field after field. The need to constantly upgrade skills has become a reality among professionals as well as factory workers.

Can we teach old dogs new tricks? Yes, we can. Read more here.

Forbes: Venezuela's New Cryptocurrency Is An Even Worse Investment Than Bitcoin

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Just when you thought the cryptocurrency craze couldn't get stranger, up pops its most absurd proposition yet: the Petro.

It is Venezuela's version of bitcoin, which is perhaps the best-known cryptocurrency. The Petro's "presale" launched February 20 and is expected to run through March 19. The goal is to raise up to $2 billion according to a recent report from geopolitical consulting firm Eurasia Group. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Is The Gig Economy Portrayed So Badly?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Why is the press coverage of the gig economy so negative when the people living the gig-life overwhelmingly seem to love it?

It's a strange phenomenon because the two things just don't seem to fit. Read more here.

WSJ: Doctors Turn to Poetry to Relieve Stress

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What is a good gift for a freshly minted physician? In Scotland, it is a book of poetry.

Each year, the 900 or so graduating medical students in Scotland receive a free copy of a poetry book titled “Tools of the Trade: Poems for New Doctors.” It’s a pocket-size book with fewer than 100 pages, so doctors can easily carry it while on duty. Read more here.

NewsMax TV: Are We In A Bubble

By SIMON CONSTABLE


Watch here.

Barron's: Venezuelan Free Fall Would Give Oil a Pop

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors in the oil market should keep a keen eye on Venezuela. an upcoming election and the prospect of U.S. sanctions will likely send the country’s wounded energy sector into a tailspin, at least temporarily. It could happen before the summer. And when it does, expect oil prices to jump by up to $10 a barrel.

“Venezuela is headed down, falling off a cliff,” says Victor Sperandeo, chief executive and general partner EAM Partners, a commodity trading advisory firm. “The place will go into chaos and won’t be able to pump oil.”

Such a move could push prices for Brent crude to as much as $75 a barrel from roughly $65 a barrel. Read more here.

Photo by David Thielen on Unsplash