Forbes: A Win For Trump In The 2020 Presidential Election -- At Least That's What The Bond Market Suggests

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The bond market suggests that president Trump will win the 2020 presidential election.

Prices for corporate bonds point to a heating up of the U.S. economy early next year. And when it comes to who wins the White House, the strength of the economy always ranks high in the voting booth.

"Trump's economy will reaccelerate in 2020," says David Ranson, director of research at financial analytics firm HCWE & Co. "2019 will mislead some people into believing that Trump is on the edge." Read more here.

Photo by Michael Vadon, CC BY-SA 2.0, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Panicked Investors Flee China Amid Trade War Worries

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors in China have hit the panic button in a big way.

They've pulled $5.32 billion from that country's stock market in the two weeks through May 17 as fears of a growing U.S.-China trade war sent a chill across Wall Street.  Read more here.

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Forbes: Why Now's The Time To Bet On European Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's time to invest in European stocks.

A sophisticated analysis of the relationship between movements in the currency markets and the subsequent stock market performance shows that Sweden and the eurozone (Europe's single currency area) should outperform those in the U.S. and other major markets over the coming year. Read more here.

Featured in "OilPrice.com"

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Apart from hopes that U.S. and China will reach a trade agreement, investor appetite for commodities is also boosted by signs of rising inflation—an environment in which commodities typically outperform other assets, The Street’s Simon Constable writes.

Read the full OilPrice.com story here.

Photo by Erik Mclean on Unsplash

Featured in "GoldSeek"

“They are snapping up the metal at the fastest rate in almost half a century in a trend that looks set to continue. Over the 12 months through March 31, they purchased a whopping 715.7 metric tons of gold bullion worth around $29.4 billion, according to a recently published report from the industry group World Gold Council.” – Simon Constable, The Street.

See full GoldSeek post here.

PHGCOM, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Featured in "Sputnik News"

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

"By most economic measures, Britain's economy is performing far better than comparable economies across the channel in mainland Europe," Simon Constable of the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics wrote. "As they say on Wall Street, gridlock in government is good because it means our politicians don't do anything bad."

Read the full Sputnik story here.

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Korn Ferry: Vacations That Won’t Happen

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The American worker has a long history of being innovative and resourceful. But ask them to take a true vacation—a real break from the office—and a remarkable number continue to struggle.

On the eve of the Memorial Day weekend that launches the country’s traditional summer break, a new Korn Ferry survey suggests that while 19 out of 20 US residents are planning to take a vacation lasting at least one week long this year, the majority (71%) still check in with the office one or more times each day. And that’s just part of the sad trend: two out of three respondents said they’ve cut short a break or canceled one for work reasons. Read more here.

TheStreet: A Global Energy Crisis Looms

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The world faces a global energy crisis unless something changes fast.

Supplies of energy, such as oil and natural gas, look set to fall short of even a modest forecast of rising global demand. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: UK’s Return to Real Pay Raises

By SIMON CONSTABLE

British leaders may be divided over Brexit and which team to root for in the all-English Champions League Final, but they do seem to agree on one issue: employers should pay their workers more.

In the first quarter of the year, wages in the United Kingdom rose 3.5% versus the same period a year ago, according to data from the UK’s Office of National Statistics. It’s the best increase Britain’s workers have had since the financial crisis more than a decade ago and helps reverse a period when the real, or inflation-adjusted, rates of pay declined. Read more here.

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TheStreet: Crude Prices to Jump as Shortage Leaves Europeans 'Scrambling' for Oil

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for a surge in Europe's benchmark oil price: Brent crude.

There's a shortage of crude in Europe, and the price of Brent futures contracts doesn't reflect that stark reality, according to a new report. 

"We expect the tightness in the physical market to impact the financial market, and see Brent rising to $75/[barrel] over the coming weeks," UBS wrote in a recent research note. "The physical market in Europe is scrambling to obtain sufficient barrels." Read more here.

Korn Ferry: The Three Fs of Innovation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When entrepreneur Elon Musk started production of Tesla’s electric vehicles in 2004, it must have looked bizarre. There was effectively no market for such cars anywhere, with fewer than 2,000 on the road within the next year and virtually no public charging stations. That’s only slightly more than all the 1,549 747 jumbo jets that aircraft maker Boeing has ever built. But we know how this story has shaped up: within a decade, Musk’s prescience was proven, with around 1.9 million battery-powered electric vehicles of all brands on the road in 2017, along with 430,000 public chargers. Read more here.

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Barron's: Plastic’s Woes Have Made Bayer Spinoff Covestro a Very Cheap Stock

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here’s something to add a spark to your portfolio.

German materials company Covestro (ticker: 1COV.Germany or COVTY), which makes high-tech plastics, is not only in a prime position to benefit from the need for high-performance materials in electric vehicles, but it’s also woefully undervalued. Read more here.

TheStreet: Central Banks Going Gaga Over Gold

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Central banks are going gaga over gold.

They are snapping up the metal at the fastest rate in almost half a century in a trend that looks set to continue. Read more here.

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WSJ: What is Divergence in Markets?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When market analysts use the word “divergence,” it often isn’t clear what they mean. That’s a problem because how it is used and in what context has implications for investors. Read more here.

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Barron's: How to Use ETFs to Invest in Commodities

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Commodities are soaring this year, reminding investors of their potential to fortify a portfolio. The S&P GSCI commodity index, which follows a basket of commodity prices, including crude oil, industrial metals, precious metals, and foodstuffs, gained 15% in the first quarter, versus 13.1% for the S&P 500 index.

If you’re looking to increase your exposure to the asset class, consider doing so through exchange-traded funds instead of playing the futures market—or by purchasing physical bars of bullion. ETFs are simple, and they can help reduce overall risks and add to returns. Read more here.

Darden: Crowded Out? Government Spending and the Private Sector

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Does government spending pull resources away from the private sector?

It’s a question that has long vexed economists. 

One widely held theory, the crowding-out effect, asserts that yes, government spending eats up resources that otherwise would be available for businesses.

However, new research shows that crowding out doesn’t necessarily happen, as long as the economy isn’t running at full capacity, producing to its full potential. Read more here.

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Darden: Bad Medicine? The Side Effects of Central Bank Mispricing

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Big medical problems often require significant doses of strong pharmaceuticals. Unfortunately, the medicines often come hand-in-glove with unwanted side effects.

The same is true in economics. Read more here.

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Korn Ferry: HR Is (Still) Battling #MeToo Challenges

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The MeToo era may have laid bare how many organizations have a long way to go to create a harassment-free workforce, but the last few days has shown where some of the toughest challenges lie: the human resources department. Read more here.

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TheStreet: Defense Company L3 Technologies Smashes Expectations With Q1 Results

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Defense company L3 Technologies smashed analysts' expectations with its first-quarter results Wednesday.

L3 reported earnings of $2.71 a share in the first quarter. Earnings adjusted for non-recurring items were even better at $2.89 a share, up from an adjusted $2.34 a share in the same period a year before. 

Analysts expected the company to earn $2.51 a share. Read more here.

TheStreet: Amgen's First-Quarter Earnings Slump as Expenses Jump

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Amgen posted first-quarter earnings that fell from a year earlier but the results beat analysts' expectations. 

The biotech company reported earnings per share of $3.18 for the first three months of the year vs. $3.25 for the same period in 2018. Adjusted earnings in the quarter were $3.56 a share, above forecasts of $3.48. Read more here.

TheStreet: Massachusetts Hits Wynn Resorts With $35 Million Fine

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The Massachusetts Gaming Commission hit Wynn Resorts with a $35 million fine and slammed CEO Matt Maddox over his mishandling of the sexual misconduct allegations against founder Steve Wynn.

The casino company, however, will get to keep its gaming license in the state. Read more here.

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Forbes: Europe's Jobless Rate Drops, But It's Still Way Higher Than The U.K.'s

By SIMON CONSTABLE

To read some reports, you'd think Europe's single currency area was at the height of an economic boom.

While the European Union's single currency area now has its lowest unemployment rate in over a decade, that indicator is still a lot higher than the jobless rate in the U.K. And other metrics suggest that the former won't catch up with the latter anytime soon and the divide could even get wider. Read more here.

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Forbes: Mass Protests Planned In Venezuela Wednesday, Amid Tightening U.S Sanctions

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Things are bad in socialist Venezuela, and they could be about to get even worse.

Massive planned demonstrations this week combined with the possibility of even tighter U.S. sanctions on the country could push the beleaguered state even deeper into its economic malaise.

The country is already suffering the rare and nasty phenomenon of hyperinflation which is quickly destroying the economy. Read more here.

TheStreet: Eli Lilly Reports Better-Than-Expected Earnings but Shares Decline

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Giant pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and said it expects full-year earnings to grow by up to 5%, but still investors were disappointed sending the stock lower in premarket trading. Read more here.

TheStreet: Gardner Denver Confirms It Will Combine With Ingersoll-Rand Division

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Pump manufacturer Gardner Denver confirmed Tuesday it will combine its business with part of Ingersoll-Rand, which also makes pumps, to create a new company worth $15 billion. Read more here.

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TheStreet: WageWorks Jumps After Receiving Unsolicited Bid From HealthEquity

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Employee benefits administrator HealthEquity has made an unsolicited offer to acquire WageWorks, a company active in the same business. Read more here.

Forbes: Rising Energy Prices Aren't Helping Many Oil-Rich Middle East Nations

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A robust oil market is bringing home the dollars for some key energy-rich nations in the Middle East.

And in some ways, OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is to blame because of its decision to restrict oil output of its member countries.Read more here.

Forbes: Don't Believe The Hype Surrounding Saudi Arabia's Aramco Bond Deal

By SIMON CONSTABLE

This month's bond sale by Saudi Arabia's oil firm Aramco has taken the investing world by storm.

However, you shouldn't buy into the hype. That's because when you look beyond the headlines, the real reason for the sale is not as it may first seem, according to a recent report.Read more here.

Forbes: Scotland's Ruling Party Makes Questionable Decision: Ditch British Pound "As Soon As Practicable"

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

The bad policy ideas just keep on coming from Scotland' ruling party.

Saturday, the Scottish National Party, which controls Scotland's independent parliament, voted to ditch the British pound "as soon as practicable" when or if the country gains full independence.

The vote appears to be motivated by little more than animosity toward many things English, a recurrent theme for the SNP. It could signal a turn towards Venezuelan-style economics. Read more here.

Fake Scottish pound note

Photo by Alf van Beem, 

Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

TheStreet: Why France's Total Is a Much Better Oil Play Than Exxon Mobil

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors wanting an oil play should buy France's Total SA over Exxon Mobil. 

Total is a steal when compared to its well-known rival Exxon. Read more here.

TheStreet: Restaurant Brands International Misses Earnings Expectations

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Higher taxes took a bite out of first-quarter earnings for Restaurant Brands International, the parent company of restaurant brands Burger King, Popeyes, and Tim Hortons. Read more here.

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TheStreet: Gardner Denver to Merge with a Division of Ingersoll-Rand - Report

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A deal announcing the merger of North Carolina-based pump manufacturer Gardner Denver Holdings with part of Ingersoll-Rand could come as soon as this week, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. Read more here.

TheStreet: Anadarko to Begin Deal Negotiations With Occidental Petroleum - Report

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's rarely a dull moment in the oil patch these days.

Anadarko Petroleum has decided to begin talks to sell itself to Occidental Petroleum. Read more here.

WSJ Guide to Econ Indicators Dubbed "Most Transformative"

RBC: The rise of ESG: Investing opportunities in emerging markets

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investment professionals are proving that responsible and ethical investing in emerging markets (EM) can go hand-in-hand with superior returns. At the same time, doing so may protect the environment and produce economic growth that is sustainable over the long term.

The success of investing through environmental, social and governance factors (ESG) is in the numbers. Over the last decade, the MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Leaders Index, which tracks companies with high performance in ESG metrics relative to their peers, outshone the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index, with a 14.5 percent annualised returns versus 10.7 percent, according to data from indexing firm MSCI. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Trading Pay Cuts for Financial Security

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s for their own good, so regulators say. Starting this month, the United Kingdom is requiring companies to set aside more retirement savings from the paychecks of some 10 million workers. But while the employees will hopefully get long-term benefit out of the change, experts say businesses may see some early fretting from workers. Read more here.

Lance Roberts Show: Dodgy Car Loans

By SIMON CONSTABLE



View here.

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TheStreet: Why Wooing Gen Z Investors Could Be the Key to Lifting Oil Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Beleaguered energy stocks might get a boost if only the industry could win over Gen Z.

That's the finding of a recent report from British bank Barclays which found that just 19% of 18-24 year-olds, a.k.a. the leading edge of so-called Generation Z, would consider buying energy stocks. Read more here.

Featured in "The Week"

Constable featured in U.S. news periodical The Week on April 20.

An investment fund that focuses specifically on companies that target Millennials has struggled to generate interest despite very strong returns, said Simon Constable at The Wall Street Journal. 

Read more here. 

TheStreet: J.B. Hunt Transport Services Tumbles After Disappointing Results

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Shares of trucking company J.B. Hunt Transportation Services were falling in premarket trading Tuesday after first-quarter earnings and revenue missed analysts' forecasts. Read more here.

TheStreet: Why Mining Stocks Are Likely to Continue Surging

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you aren't already betting on metals and mining stocks, you ought to consider doing so now.

A likely rebounding Chinese economy should help boost demand for metals and materials, which in turn should help further lift the mining stocks, such as those held in the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers exchange-traded fund. Read more here.

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Korn Ferry: UK’s New Crackdown on Tech

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The United Kingdom’s political class may be hopelessly divided on separating from the European Union, but they are surprisingly in agreement on another controversial subject: regulating technology companies. Read more here.

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TheStreet: France's Publicis Groupe to Acquire Alliance Data Systems' Epsilon for $4.4B

By SIMON CONSTABLE

French advertising and public relations giant Publicis Groupe announced it has cut a deal to acquire the Epsilon unit of Alliance Data Systems for $4.4 billion.

Epsilon specializes in data analytics. Read more here.

TheStreet: China's Huawei Reportedly Open to Selling 5G Chips to Apple

By SIMON CONSTABLE

China's Huawei Technologies said it was open to the idea of selling cutting-edge 5G chips to Apple, according to a report from CNBC. 

Huawei, which is the world's largest manufacturer of networking gadgets, is a leader in 5G or so-called fifth generation smartphone technology. Read more here.

The Street: Caesars Entertainment Places Bet on New CEO - Report

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Casino operator Caesars Entertainment is preparing to name a new CEO, according to a report. Read more here.

TheStreet: Gilead Sciences Teams With Novo Nordisk for Trials of Liver Disease Drugs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Biotech company Gilead Sciences  (GILD)  will team up with Danish healthcare company Novo Nordisk  (NVO) in their efforts to help combat liver disease.

The two companies said they will collaborate on clinical trials for medications for treating nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Read more here.

TheStreet: J Crew Actively Pursuing IPO of Madewell Division

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Iconic apparel company J. Crew is actively considering selling off its women-focused brand Madewell through an initial public offering, according to a press release from the company.

The move, which could come as soon as the second half of the year, is aimed at shoring up J Crew's balance sheet. Read more here.

TheStreet: Tesla Goes Old School for Cheapest Model 3 - No More Online Sales

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Iconic electric carmaker Tesla  (TSLA) is going old school. 

New orders for its cheapest Model 3 car will now need to get made either over the phone or in-person at one of the company's dealers, Tesla stated in a blog post late Thursday. Buying the vehicle online won't be an option. Read more here.

TheStreet: JetBlue to Start Service to London in 2021

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's official!

You'll soon be able to take a JetBlue (JBLU) flight from New York or Boston to London.

Starting in 2021, the budget airline will begin its first ever service in the lucrative trans-Atlantic market, the company announced. Read more here.

TheStreet: YouTube Subscriptions Will Set You Back $600 a Year

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Ouch!

YouTube subscriptions will now set you back $600 a year.

It's even worse if you subscribe through Apple. Read more here.

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