Forbes: How COVID-19 Killed The Stock Buyback Program

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The COVID-19 pandemic may have torpedoed one of corporate America’s favorite activities: Buying back their own shares.

Since the end of the financial crisis a decade ago, each year the companies in the S&P 500 index have spent hundreds of billions of dollars conducting stock buybacks.

But this year the COVID-19 virus will likely put an enormous dent in those programs. Read more here.

WSJ: A 3x ETF Shows the Perils of Leverage

BY SIMON CONSTABLE

The market tumult has highlighted a potential double hazard for individual investors: the pitfalls of leveraged funds, and the need to read the fine print in any investment.

One particular fund provides an instructive example for both issues. It is Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares (HIBL), which is designed to deliver three times the return of the daily move in the S&P 500 High Beta Index. Read more here.

NYSE Trading Floor 1963

pingnews.com, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: April Will Bring Peak Virus Panic, Analysts Say

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here’s some bad news and good news for investors.

First the bad news.

This month is going to look bleak when it comes to news about the killer virus COVID-19, experts say.

"We have been commenting for months that the month of April would be the key month where the virus panic would likely peak," states a recent report from financial firm Hackett Financial LLC. Read more here.

Photo by Viktor Forgacs on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: The Risk of Cutting Dividends

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If there is one pattern that is holding true in the global pandemic era, it’s that one company after another is making some hard choices about paying. Pay employees? Pay vendors? And increasingly, the knife is hitting the once unthinkable: dividends. Read more here.

WSJ: These Robots Want to Make Sure You Don’t Do Anything Stupid With Your Money

By SIMON CONSTABLE

One of the most persistent problems for individual investors is that they do things to mess up their finances even when they should know better.

But don’t worry. Robots are coming to the rescue. Read more here.

WSJ: Gold Funds Fell 21.4% in the Quarter, Despite the Coronavirus Panic

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Why did gold prices fail to rally on news that the coronavirus had morphed into a pandemic? It’s the opposite of what many would have expected.

Gold-oriented mutual funds and exchange-traded funds posted average total returns of minus 21.4% in the first quarter, according to Lipper data—in line with or worse than many fund categories. The average U.S.-stock fund, by comparison, fell nearly 24.6%. Read more here.

Andrzej Barabasz (Chepry), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What Is ‘Buy the Panic’?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What does it mean when investment professionals say, “Buy the panic”?

It’s a phrase that investors might hear frequently given the recent widespread selling in the stock market. Despite snapback rallies on several days, the S&P 500 is down 23% for the year so far. Read more here.

Photo by Jp Valery on Unsplash

John Batchelor Show: Scotland and the virus -- gold bugs awaken!

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Joe Piscopo Show: Coronavirus Special

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: French Economy “35% Below Normal,” Report Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Now last week’s pessimists look like optimists.

The impact the coronavirus lockdown, which began less than two weeks ago on March 17, is already having a far worse effect on France than naysayers could have foreseen.

New estimates from government statisticians show that the French economy is operating 35% below normal, according to a recent report from UK-based financial research firm Capital Economics. Read more here.

Forbes: When Fighting The Coronavirus, America Should Learn From President Truman

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Yes, the coronavirus pandemic is unprecedented in modern times in terms of danger and the speed of its impact on the economy.

However, we can learn from one past U.S. President how resilient and agile the U.S. economy can be, especially when everyone works together toward a single goal. Read more here.

Forbes: Low Oil Prices Could Help Boost Crushed Gold Miners

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for a rally in the gold patch.

Over the past month, gold mining stocks got crushed along with most other assets.

But the divergence of how the miners performed with what happened to the price of gold bullion has now become so great that it seems to offer rare opportunities for daring investors. The falling price of oil, and the likely coming rally for gold, only adds to the relative attraction of such mining companies. Read more here.

Forbes: Oil Prices Could Plunge To $10 A Barrel, Swamp Storage Capacity Report Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The prognosis for the oil patch just got worse.

The price of a barrel of crude oil could more than halve from current levels if the coronavirus pandemic isn’t brought under control. Plus global oil storage facilities could quickly get overwhelmed, analysts say. Read more here.

Photo by Erik Mclean on Unsplash

Forbes: Europe’s Economy Could Shrink By A Record-Breaking 15% In The Second Quarter, Report Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

How bad will things get for mainland Europe in the coming weeks?

Worse than you could imagine for the countries of the single currency area known as the eurozone. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: The Mental Health Toll of Working in Isolation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The company needed to keep operating while having many of their staff self-isolate to contain the spread of the coronavirus. The big plan was to make sure the supply chains and other operations ran efficiently despite shortages. Only managers kept making one critical assumption: the at-home employees would keep handling their tasks as if nothing in the world had changed. Read more here.

Forbes: Coronavirus Lockdowns To Cause ‘Unprecedented’ Hit To World Oil Demand, Report Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Oil traders should look out below!

The COVID-19 Pandemic is set to cause an ‘unprecedented’ drop in the volume of oil the world consumes this year, experts say. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: Emerging Markets in a "Quad 4" pandemic

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: Brace Yourself For Another 33% Drop In The Price Of Crude Oil

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Look out below. Oil prices are set to fall further.

That’s saying something because on Monday they dropped around 20% during the session to around $34 recently down from $57 a year ago. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Quad 4?

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

When inflation and GDP growth are slowing, the U.S. economy is in Quad 4, according to Hedgeye Risk Management. Read more here.

Photo by Joshua Mayo on Unsplash

WSJ: A Nasdaq ‘Covered Call’ ETF Grows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Assets in Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call have almost tripled since the start of 2019, as more investors look to hedge their bets. Read more here.

WSJ: Emerging Markets Lose Money, Get More

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A net $41 billion has flowed into emerging-markets equities funds in the two years through December 2019, coinciding with a period of significant underperformance. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: When Leaders Have No Answers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The coronavirus crisis will be a challenge for even the most talented executive, but it's also a golden opportunity to practice some key skills. That includes one that most leaders tend to avoid: not having all the answers.

As we all know, the outbreak that is now sweeping across the world is leaving many workers frightened and wanting answers. But that doesn't mean corporate heads need to be an all-knowing leader, says Kirsta Anderson, Korn Ferry's global leader for culture and engagement. Indeed, experts suggest avoiding certitude that those in a crisis naturally seek.  “In this situation, it is not possible," she says. That's because there are too many unknowns. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: The New Stay-Home Policy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

First, there were government-mandated quarantines, in one country after another, each creating new levels of concern for the public. Now, a business-led version of these steps is emerging with a key question: How well can it be implemented?

To fight the coronavirus, some companies across the globe are imposing self-quarantines, with clearly defined rules about who can come to the office, who can’t, and what travel arrangements are allowable or advisable. The rules typically rely on information from the World Health Organization and local health organizations, and few question their need—just how they will be imposed in the realities of many operations. Read more here.

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Forbes: Coronavirus Crash Will Leave Stocks Higher 12 Months From Now, History Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors are acting like the world is about to end.

But the truth is that the Coronavirus won’t destroy global business any more than previous viral outbreaks, at least if history is anything to go by. Better still stocks should rally over the next 12 months, leaving investors ahead of the game. Read more here.

Forbes: Is It Time To Buy Emerging Markets Stocks? Yes, Says UBS

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Who wants to buy into emerging markets (EM) stocks?

On the face of it, the sector doesn’t seem too appealing in the wake of the China-born Coronavirus outbreak. China has a 33% weighting in the MSCI emerging markets index and Beijing has made many missteps in managing the crisis.

But the reality may be far better than some investors know. Read more here.

UBS

Photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash

Forbes: Gold Prices Are Headed To Record Highs No Matter Where You Live

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for a record-breaking rally in global gold prices.

The price of the yellow metal is fast approaching its all-time high when measured in dollars and will also do the same in other currencies, according to a recent research report. Read more here.

"#1 Best Seller" on Amazon...

Robert Wright and Simon Constable's book the WSJ Guide to the 50 Economic Indicators that Really Matter now is officially a best seller. 

Barron's: Argentina Needs More Than Loans. Investors Should Stay Away for Now.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Don’t let the prospect of an international debt bailout tempt you into buying Argentine stocks anytime soon.

The longer-term prospects for the economy are poor because of misguided policies and the systemic weakness of the country’s institutions. Those problems are unlikely to get fixed by the recent meeting with the International Monetary Fund, experts say.

“This is a no-go situation,” says Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. He was also a formal and informal economic adviser to the Argentine government from the late 1980s to the mid-1990s. Read more here.

Photo by Florencia Dalla Lasta on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: Has Productivity Flatlined in the UK?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The world may think we are all long past the financial crisis of 2008. But new research suggests that in the United Kingdom, and perhaps elsewhere, the harm to the workforce has been much more lasting—and still needs correcting.

According to new data that only makes the timing of Brexit more worrisome, during the decade after the crisis, the UK’s economic efficiency fell to its worst level in 250 years. Productivity growth, or the annual increase in output per worker, fell to an average of less than 0.2% per year over the decade, compared to a normal trend line increase of between 1% and 3% a year, the research shows. More recent figures suggest little improvement last year. Read more here.

Barron's: Lloyds Stock Is a Post-Brexit ‘Pure U.K. Banking Play’

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors looking to bet on a Brexit-fueled jump in Britain’s economy should consider buying shares in United Kingdom-based financial powerhouse Lloyds Banking Group.

The stock is cheap and highly geared to the U.K. economy, and you’ll also get paid a hefty dividend while you wait. Read more here.

Mtaylor848, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: The Skinny On The Ongoing Morningstar Ratings Squabble

By SIMON CONSTABLE

First, there were the claims of wrongdoing, then there were counterclaims, and after that, the rebuttal to the counterclaims. What's more, there's no end in sight. 

It is a story of a continuing squabble over how mutual funds that hold bonds are classified. Read more here.

WSJ: Which Way to Buy Gold: The Metal or the Companies?

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

After years stuck in the doldrums, gold is back in fashion. A common question from individual investors is, should they put their money into the precious metal itself or gold-mining stocks?

“It boils down to what you are trying to achieve” says Rohit Savant, vice president of research at New York commodities consulting firm CPM Group. Read more here.

Photo by Kotivalo, 

CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, 

via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: Videogame ETFs Are in Growth Mode

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Exchange-traded-fund investors who want to bet on the fast-growing videogaming industry now have more ways to do it than ever before.

In recent years, fund firms have launched several new ETFs focused on videogames and esports, a form of competitive videogaming that spectators watch like a sporting event. Still, while all of the products are to capitalize on the same trend, they don’t mirror each other in terms of holdings or costs. Read more here.

Photo by Sam Pak on Unsplash

WSJ: What Are ‘Nongrowth’ Stocks and ‘Bond Surrogates’?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes it seems the language Wall Street uses to describe the market changes almost as much as the market itself. That can make reading research reports confusing. 

For instance, a recent report from New-York-based Wolfe Research focused on two different types of stocks: “nongrowth” and “bond surrogates.” These terms may be unfamiliar to some. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Brexit, Week Two

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It was fairly anticlimactic, the United Kingdom’s big departure from the European Union last week. But corporate leaders are discovering they have two issues to jump on—including one surprise.

An immediate issue for leaders is to figure out how to fill a potentially significant shortage of skilled workers. Before last week, most EU residents had an automatic right to work in England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. For instance, if an office in Manchester needed a computer programmer, it could hire someone from Barcelona without much paperwork or cost. Now, companies will need to lobby for work visas if they want to hire someone from overseas. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: After Brexit: Scotland Forever EU!

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: Coronavirus Could Send Stocks Down Another 10% Or More, History Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The coronavirus, which is wreaking havoc in China, could slash another 10% or more off the value of stocks, history shows. Before the crisis is over, investor losses could be far worse. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Finland’s Four-Day Workweek Frenzy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It hasn’t taken long for the four-day workweek to go from a quirky idea to one that’s getting serious consideration from more corporations and national leaders globally.

The latest development: the discovery that Finland’s new 34-year-old prime minister had, before she took her current role, advocated for trimming a day off the workweek. That quickly led to speculation that Finland’s government would soon mandate the change. It won’t, says Johan Blomqvist, Korn Ferry’s general manager for Finland, but the idea of working full-time across four days rather than five has started a debate about work-related reforms in the country. “It is sparking some support,” says Blomqvist. Read more here.

Forbes: British Banks Spark Outrage In The UK

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Have bankers no shame?

In Britain, at least, it appears not. Eventually, that could hurt the entire industry.

Starting in April, the big banks want to charge overdraft borrowers a staggering 40% a year in interest. That means for every £1,000 ($1,300) they borrow, they must pay £400 in interest each year. Overdrafts are unsecured loans made typically for short periods of time in much the same way as credit card loans. Read more here.

Forbes: Why You Should Buy Microsoft Stock Despite The Data Breach News

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Wednesday’s news of a massive data breach at tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) might not seem like a good omen. After all, information on a quarter of a billion of the company’s customers got exposed online with no password protection. 

That’s certainly not good. 

But what might be beneficial is a potential opportunity for investors to make some money. At least that’s the theory based on an analysis of other public companies that got hit by hackers. Read more here.

Barron's: The Trade Deal Won’t Create a Bull Market for Soybeans. Here’s One Way to Play It.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The phase-one trade deal between the U.S. and China announced in mid-January should create frequent opportunities for soybean traders to make money. What it won’t do is create a bull market for the grain.

“The strategy would be to buy on the breaks,” says Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. “You have to be opportunistic is the point.” Read more here.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

Forbes: Stocks To Crash Unless Trump Reelected, Market Analyst Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Stock market euphoria could quickly turn to tears unless President Donald Trump gets re-elected. 

That’s the story according to new research published Wednesday by from London-based financial research firm Capital Economics. 

The report, titled “It could soon be time to downsize” warns that the recent stellar outperformance by the largest stocks in the market could quickly reverse unless Trump keeps his job in the White House after the November election. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: The Grand Goals from Davos

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s nothing like a bold goal to kick off the decade. And as leaders gather for that most sought-after conference of the year, they decided on a huge one.

Among other topics that will make headlines, the business and political leaders attending this week’s World Economic Forum meeting in the Alpine village of Davos, Switzerland, will discuss two objectives that might not be compatible in the short term. They will respond to a rallying call to fight climate change, and they will grapple with the immediate threat of a slowing global economy. The trick for executives and other leaders will be how to achieve both at the same time. Read more here.

Forbes: Iran’s Economy To Sink Even Faster This Year Than Last

By SIMON CONSTABLE

U.S. sanctions are squeezing the life out of the Iranian economy, and the malaise is likely to get even worse.

“We expect the contraction to deepen,” states a recent report by Garbis Iradian and his team at the Washington D.C.-based think tank, the Institute of International Finance.

How bad? In the current fiscal year, which ends in March, the Islamic Republic’s economy will likely shrink by 7.2%, that’s even worse than the already-dire 4.6% drop the prior year, according to the report. Read more here.

Forbes: Gold Investors: Should Brace For More Volatility, Report Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Last year gold investors had a lucrative but bumpy ride. Expect more of the same for 2020, according to a new report. Ultra-low interest rates, a frothy stock market, and geopolitical tension stand out as things that could both support more price gains over the next 12 months and lead to wild swings. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Call Me By My Name -- The Netherlands

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Holland has a New Year’s request: stop calling it Holland.

Holland refers to a region of the Netherlands, but the name itself has frequently been used to refer to the whole country. Now, through an effort led by the country’s board of tourism, the country’s government has decided that “all official government communications and promotions” will reference “the Netherlands” exclusively. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: After Brexit, Scotland is not leaving either the Queen's UK or the Church of the NHS

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Korn Ferry: Women on Boards -- Hitting an Ambitious Goal

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It was an ambitious goal when it was set in 2010: triple the percentage of female board directors on corporate boards by 2020. But as this new year dawned, more than three out of every ten directors—30.6%, to be exact—at the 250 largest publicly traded firms in the UK are women. The goal now? Keep up the effort without a highly publicized campaign. Read more here.

Photo by Katherine Hanlon on Unsplash

Medium: 35 Questions About California’s AB5 Law That Limits Freelance Journalists to 35 Stories A Year

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Starting January 1, there are new laws in California that have all the look of outright war on the media.

While President Donald Trump has from day one as a candidate consistently hurled abuse at the press, what California has done makes Trump look like a rank amateur in the field. Read more here.

“corona typewriter” by lexly87 aka Duc N. Ly is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

Constable's Work on Italy Cited by the Center for American Progress

Constable's work was recently cited by the Center for American Progress in a paper titled: Embrace the Union: A New Progressive Approach for Reviving the Trans-Atlantic Alliance. Among a slew of things, the paper discusses the importance of a unified Europe.