Forbes: Central Banks Are Considering Digital Currencies, And That Should Worry You

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Central banks, such as the Bank of England are considering introducing digital currencies along side their paper money. Whatever the stated motivation for doing so, it should worry you. Here's why:

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Forbes: Stock Up On Coffee Now, Prices Are Headed Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

ts time to stock your cabinets full of coffee. The price of your cup of morning joe, your latte, your cappuccino is going higher. Read more here.

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: Commodities Suffer the Drought

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Or listen here.

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: Scotland Unaltered by Freedom Day

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Or listen here.

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WABC: Frank Morano and Simon Constable talk about how everything's getting more expensive.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Or listen here.

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: Scotland masks until Christmas

By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Barron's: Sugar Prices Are Rallying. How Investors Can Sweeten Their Portfolios.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors might want sweeten their portfolios with a touch of sugar this summer, as prices for the commodity look set to continue rallying. A combination of existing crop damage, likely inclement weather in key growing areas, and robust oil prices could lift sugar prices.

“The only way the potential sugar shortage gets resolved is for the Asian harvests to come in with big crops,” says Shawn Hackett, president of the financial firm Hackett Financial Advisors. Read moire here.

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Eye On The World With John Batchelor: The sudden price of wheat in a global drought

By SIMON CONSTABLE

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WSJ: Explaining ‘Bad News for the Economy Is Good News for the Stock Market’

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

With some frequency, Wall Street professionals use this phrase: “Bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market.” They also use it in reverse, with good news for the economy said to be bad for stocks.

At first glance, whichever way you read it, the line might seem to make little sense. Many people see the economy and the stock market as inextricably linked. In their minds, if the economy is weakening, then surely company profits will suffer, which will end up sending stock prices lower. But that’s not always the case. Read more here.

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Briefings Magazine: A Roaring Twenties Redux?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you only listened to the Wall Street consensus, you’d believe that the United States is on the precipice of an economic boom not seen in nearly a century. Forget the go-go 1980s or even the surge in the 1990s—some finance professionals forecast a 1920s-esque takeoff. Maybe Art Deco architecture, flapper dresses, and the Charleston dance will also come back into style. Read more here.

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Barron's: Severe Drought Points to Higher Prices for Wheat Crops

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

A blistering drought across vital U.S. farmland looks set to destroy the crop of spring wheat this year if rain doesn’t arrive in the next few weeks. Without that much-needed moisture, prices for the grain could easily rally by more than 30%, experts say.

“We are going to have an extreme shortage of high-quality wheat,” Shawn Hackett, president of financial firm Hackett Financial Advisors, told Barron’s. “We are not seeing anything good in key growing areas.” Read more here.

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Forbes: Denmark Tops List Of Best Countries For Business

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

For running a business in Europe is rather like author Charles Dickens’ “Tale of Two Cities.” It can be the best of times or the worst of times.

It all depends where you set up shop. And that’s something investors need to consider when sinking money into ventures overseas. Read more here.

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Darden: The Future of Investing (Looks Very Different)

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While unemployment ballooned and the global economy collapsed in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, an odd thing happened: Wall Street surged. The stock market rose to record levels, relatively new asset classes such as cryptocurrencies headed to the moon, and individual investors had hedge fund managers reeling. Read more here.

 

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: Cryptocurrency Bandits. Simon Constable, WSJ, Forbes

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Forbes: U.S. Saw More Than 80,000 Cryptocurrency Frauds In 2020, Report Says

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Last year, while bitcoin prices were booming so was crypto-related fraud.

In the U.S. alone 82,135 crimes involving cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ethereum, and other digital currencies got reported. Read more here.

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Forbes: COVID-19 And All Its Rules Could Slam Spain’s Economy This Summer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Just when we all thought the end of the pandemic was in sight comes a piece of shockingly bad news for Spain, Britain, and the rest of Europe. Read more here. 

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Forbes: Investors Sink $77 Billion Into Mutual Funds And ETFs Over Last Month

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

The largest share of that haul, 58%, went into funds that specialize in bonds, both taxable and municipal. Read more here.

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Forbes: Recession May Be Over Soon For Germany

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Germany’s epic recession maybe closer to ending than you think.

The largest economy in Europe has been contracting for well over a year, but leading indicators show that businesses are beginning to bounce back with some vigor.

Read more here.

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Barron's: This Copper Miner Is Facing New Taxes in Chile. The Stock Is Already Taking a Hit.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Shares of copper mining company Antofagasta look set to deflate because of a political lurch to the left in Chile, raising the possibility of higher taxes on resource companies. Recent drops in the price of copper aren’t helping either. Read more here.

Copper mine

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Featured in Daily Express

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Read full story here.

Investing Article of the Year?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

See original here.

WSJ: Why Investors May Not Want to Regularly Rebalance Their Portfolio

 By SIMON CONSTABLE 

It’s an investor’s mantra: Rebalance your portfolio regularly. But it may be worth rethinking that mantra. 

The case for rebalancing is pretty straightforward. Over time, assets whose prices rise account for a growing proportion of a portfolio’s overall value, and those whose prices fall amount to a shrinking share of the portfolio. Rebalancing, by selling securities that have risen in value and buying assets whose value has declined, restores the investor’s desired weighting of various assets within the portfolio. Read more here.

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WSJ: What Is Global Macro?

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Wall Street professionals often refer to “global macro,” but few outside of the finance world have any idea what it means or why it matters to investors.

Global macro is a term for underlying trends that are so large that they could lift or drop the economy or vast chunks of the securities market, says Peter Tchir, head of global macro at New York-based Academy Securities. “As a whole, they are huge driving factors,” he says. Read more here.

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Barron's: BP’s Pivot to Renewables Has Big Potential—and Sizable Risks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors wanting to inject some fuel into their portfolio could do a whole lot worse than to consider energy giant BP.

BP (ticker: BP) has the potential for big gains over the next 12 months as the company engages in a significant stock buyback program, continues transitioning toward renewable energy, and markets its oil and gas at relatively high prices, analysts say. Read more here.

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Korn Ferry: Germany -- The Issues Beyond COVID

By SIMON CONSTABLE

They are headlines that no one can miss—Europe’s continued problems with its vaccine programs. But experts say that the continent’s biggest economy, once well lauded, has quietly developed a different set of economic ails. Read more here.

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Eye On the World with John Batchelor: Scotland reopens, except Edinburgh; and the price of hogs in China.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Forbes: Another Blow To The EU — Its Population Is Divided

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

The bureaucracy that is the European Union just received another blow, this time from its residents.

The population of the 27-country bloc are hugely divided over some of the key aspects of EU membership, a recent report by researchers at Oxford University shows. Read more here.

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Forbes: Pork Prices Set To Plunge As Chinese Demand Evaporates

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Look out below.

Prices for pork look set to plunge over the summer, recent research shows. Read more here.

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Forbes: COVID Dreams: More Americans Got Toked In 2020, Study Shows

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

The year of the COVID-19 pandemic also appears to have been a year that more Americans got high. At least that’s where new research points. Read more here.

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Forbes: UBS Takes Apart The Case For Investing In Cryptos

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

The woes of crypto currency investment go way beyond the problems caused by the Chinese government, according to a leading bank.

“We see a range of other reasons that investors should treat cryptos, such as bitcoin, as a speculative asset,” states a recent research note from Swiss banking company UBS. Read more here.

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Forbes: China’s Crypto Crackdown Shows Governments Are The Enemy Of Bitcoin

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

China is proving that government actions anywhere have the power to destroy cryptocurrencies. It adds to a series of black eyes for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Read more here.

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WSJ: What is a Market Breakout?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes Wall Street pros refer to an event known as a “breakout.” For those unfamiliar with the term, here is what it means and why it matters to investors.  Read more here.

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Korn Ferry: Germany -- The Issues Beyond COVID

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

They are headlines that no one can miss—Europe’s continued problems with its vaccine programs. But experts say that the continent’s biggest economy, once well lauded, has quietly developed a different set of economic ails. Read more here.

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Forbes: Corporate Virtue Signaling Could Be Elevating Housing Costs

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Virtual signaling by corporate executives may be causing the cost of housing to skyrocket. It is yet another example of the law of unintended consequences.

The case in point is the supersonic rally in the price of lumber over the last few months, which came despite the seemingly ample supply of trees. Read more here.

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Forbes: ETF Investors Dump $17 Billion Of Gold, Most In 8 Years

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Wall Street seems to have gone cold on gold exchange-traded funds.

ETF investors investors dumped the most volume of gold since 2013 over the six months through March 31. It was no small quantity. The total sold amounted to a whopping 307.8 metric tons worth $17.5 billion at recent prices, according to a recent report from industry group World Gold Council. Read more here. 

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Forbes: A Monster Corn Rally Likely This Summer

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Better stock up on corn flakes while you can still afford them.

An exceptionally weak harvest in Brazil and a likely U.S. drought this year should propel corn prices even higher by the end of the year. Read more here.

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Forbes Japan: ビットコインはまだ「貨幣」から程遠い？

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Red more here.

Forbes: Two Nightmare Scenarios For Bitcoin

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Cryptocurrencies could be damned if they do get government acceptance, and damned if they don’t. Read more here.

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Forbes: You’ll Never Guess Which State Has The Worst Small Cities For Starting A Business

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Six of the ten worst towns or small cities to start a business are in the garden state, according to an April-dated report by financial website WalletHub, titled “2021’s Best and Worst Small Cities to Start a Business.” Read more here.

Briefings Magazine: Inflation That May Actually Inflate

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Inflation. It looms in the closet of many national economies, waiting to burst out like some dreaded ghost. It has brought even economies as great as the United States to their knees; back in 1971, President Richard Nixon was forced to freeze all salaries and prices because of it. Since then, it hasn’t said boo for decades, rising at only about 2 percent annually in the US since the 1980s. COVID only kept it away even more—crushing the rate to nearly zero. Read more here.

WSJ: Japanese Stocks Are Back on U.S. Investors’ Radar

By SIMON CONSTABLE

After years of being shunned, Japanese stocks are getting attention from U.S. investors.

The reasons for avoiding the Tokyo stock market, which date to the late 1980s, are no longer applicable, say financial professionals, pointing to an increased focus on profits by Japanese companies and the fact that Japan is well-positioned to benefit from a global economic recovery. Read more here.

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WSJ: What Investors Need to Know About ‘Geopolitical Risk’

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investment professionals often talk about geopolitical risk. For those new to investing, the term can be unclear. 

For U.S. investors, geopolitical risk typically refers to the added problems and opportunities that come with investing in foreign markets. Red more here.

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Upcoming Event: Speaker At St Andrews Foreign Affairs Society Conference

19:00 GMT Tuesday April 20, 2021.

More details to follow.

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Forbes: Expect Subdued Gold Market In 2021, CPM Says

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Don’t bet that the 2020 gold market boom will repeat this year. It likely won’t, new research shows.

Expect something less than the phenomenal rally seen during the height of the pandemic. Read more here.

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Forbes: Does Tesla’s Tumble Mean The Electric Car Party Is Over?

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Ouch!

Tesla Inc’s (TSLA) stock has taken a tumble over the last few week, falling almost 30% since January 26.

That’s hundreds of billions of dollars wiped off the value of one company in a matter of weeks.

What it doesn’t mean is the electric vehicle (EV) party is over, according to recent research from Swiss bank UBS. Read more here.

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Forbes: Bitcoin Still A Long Way From Being Money

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Cryptocurrencies hit the big time in January, but doesn’t mean they are money. Not yet anyway. Read more here.

CryptoWallet.com Images, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Massive Margin Call Strikes Again In The Stock Market

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Too much leverage strikes again in the stock market!

It’s at least the second time in 2021 that investors using leverage to enhance their returns has sent the market into turmoil. Read more here.

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Darden: Government Debt During Crisis -- The Pandemic and Credit Risk

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Over the past decade, economists such as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman have increasingly urged countries to embrace more government borrowing. But recent experience from the COVID-19 pandemic shows that too much debt can be a significant problem. New research shows that specifically during periods of crisis, nations with stretched finances will more than likely be penalized by financial markets and see their borrowing costs rise. The findings have significant implications for global policy. Read more here.

WSJ: How Margin Debt Works

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Margin debt is a sometimes-overlooked but key part of the stock market that is particularly pertinent right now. Read more here.

Forbes: High Frequency Trading Helps Stabilize The Stockmarket, New Research Shows

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

No, high-frequency algorithmic traders are not messing up the stock market.

The reality is that HFT (high-frequency trading) is helping to stabilize the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market by ensuring that the price of the funds stays close to the net asset value (NAV) of the holdings, new research finds. That should benefit all investors not just Wall Street professionals. Read more here.

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