Monday, October 24, 2022

Forbes: China’s Share Of Global Economy Set To Stall - New Research

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Chinese premier Xi Jinping might have cemented his power in China, but dreams of dominating the global economy could soon come to a screeching halt. Read more here.

via Wikimedia Commons


Sunday, October 23, 2022

Forbes: How The Fed’s Monetary Policy Has Raised Inflation For Some Americans

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The Fed has a hard job ahead fighting inflation.

But its recent series of interest rate hikes have delivered a substantial increase in the cost of living for more than a few Americans. That’s at odds with the institution’s stated goals. Read more here.

Federal Reserve, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Forbes: How Bad Is Europe’s Energy Problem? Better Than You Think

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s a been a lot of scaremongering about Russia and its threats to turn off Europe’s energy supply this winter by conducting ‘maintenance’ on the natural gas pipeline that goes through Ukraine.

But it's a hollow threat. So empty that it beggars belief. Read more here


via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Get Ready For Another Lumber Rally As Homebuilders Anticipate 2023 Rebound

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for another lumber rally,

Despite its epic fall since March, lumber could be about to surge once again, experts say. Read more here.

Stephen OndichCC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons


Monday, October 17, 2022

Monday, October 10, 2022

Monday, October 3, 2022

Briefings Magazine: The Central Bank Dip

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

What a difference a few decades make. In 1982, the reputation of the Federal Reserve was riding high after its leader Paul Volcker had deftly tamed the double-digit inflation that blighted the US economy during the late 1970s. A year later, when Hong Kong suffered a currency crisis, the Fed’s tangential involvement played an essential part in lifting the then-British territory out of economic and political turmoil. While the Fed’s glow lasted into the early 21st century, the institution now seems to have lost some of its luster, as have other major central banks, according to some experts. Read more here.

Stone on the Wall of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Benji the PenCC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons



Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Forbes: What’s The Problem? UK Economic Policy Mirrors Successful 1980s U.S. Effort

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The snarks keep on coming for Britain’s new Prime Minister and finance chief.  

Just a few days into their new jobs, Liz Russ (PM) and Kwasi Kwarteng have received a barrage of criticism for introducing some new economic policies, including tax cuts. 

But the critics seem to have gotten the wrong end of the stick. Read more here.

Kwasi Kwarteng
UK GovernmentOGL 3, via Wikimedia Commons



Forbes: Scottish Equality Goals Undermined As Top Colleges Favor The Well-Heeled

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Scotland’s stance on higher education should be a poster-child for public policy gone awry. In short, the outcome is the opposite of what the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) says it desires. Read more here.

University of St. Andrews

Holger Uwe SchmittCC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons



Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Forbes: British Currency Mess Set To Upend U.K.’s Housing Market

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The United Kingdom’s housing market is likely to screech to a halt.

For that, you can blame Britain’s banks. 

Or the government...

Or investors.

Yep, it’s a complicated matter. But some people will find it tricky to buy or sell houses for the immediate future. Read more here.

Derek Harper / Christmas for sale sign, Torquay



Monday, September 26, 2022

Forbes: China’s Economy ‘Dismal,’ Will See No Growth, New Report

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Communist China under premier Xi Jinping is wilting fast.

The economy, already under pressure so far this year, looks to get even worse, according to a recent report from London-based consulting firm Capital Economics.

Capital kicks off with the following blistering assessment of the situation:

  • “The financial world’s focus on a generational surge in inflation in advanced economies is stealing attention from a generational slowdown in China that is arguably of much greater importance for the long-term global outlook.” 
In other words, ignore China’s worsening economic quagmire at your peril. Read more here.


图片来源: 美国之音, Public domain, 
via Wikimedia Commons


Forbes: U.K. ‘Mini Budget’ Likely Just Dealt Scotland A Fiscal Time Bomb

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The United Kingdom’s finance chief just dealt an economic blow to Scotland.

It’ll likely be a slow-burn problem for the Scottish National Party, but it could end up being devastating. Read more here.

Kwasi Kwarteng
Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons


Thursday, September 22, 2022

Time Magazine: The U.K. Economy Is in Turmoil, But There Are Signs of Hope

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The death of Queen Elizabeth II and the period of national mourning that followed have been the latest blow to Britain’s already struggling economy, but economists and analysts say that there are glimmers of hope.

Britain is at a watershed moment. The country has just completed a 10-day period of mourning, concluding with country-wide shutdowns during a public holiday to mark the late monarch’s funeral. Her death came just two days after a new prime minister, Liz Truss, took office, after the last one was ousted by his own party for unbecoming behavior, while the U.K. faces a cost-of-living crisis unlike anything the nation has seen in decades. Inflation has soared to the highest levels since the 1980s, at around 10%, and the nation faces an energy crisis due to dwindling Russian energy exports to Europe. The British pound has been languishing around a nearly 37-year low against the dollar. And economic growth—the U.K. has now fallen behind India, a former British colony, becoming the world’s sixth largest economy and its central bank, the Bank of England, has warned that it risks falling into a recession that could last well into 2024. Read more here.

User:Hogweard, Public domain, 
via Wikimedia Commons


CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #France: King Charles first to visit President Macron & What is to be done?

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Listen here.


King Charles III, visiting New Zealand as Prince of Wales
CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons



Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Friday, September 2, 2022

Barron's: Tobacco Is a Trusty Inflation Hedge. Here’s a U.K. Name to Play.

By SMON CONSTABLE

Stockholders have had a rough time this year, with surging inflation and fears of a recession. But there is a way to mitigate it: tobacco stock Imperial Brands

The company (ticker: IMB.UK) offers potential total returns above 22% over the next 12 months, some analysts say. It markets cigarette brands including Winston, JPS, L&B, and Gauloises, and rolling paper Rizla. It is also developing next-generation products, or NGPs, which include vaping materials and oral nicotine. Read more here.

Photo by Aman Upadhyay on Unsplash






Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Forbes: Europe’s Energy Crisis Won’t Be Over Anytime Soon, Experts Say

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine quickly laid bare Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. But solving the matter could take years, experts say.

Worse still, the EU and UK will likely suffer economic turmoil while the situation rights itself. Read more here.

Forbes: It’s A Good-News Bad-News Scenario For The Gold Market

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here’s some bad news. Gold investors have taken a pummeling so far this year. 

The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, which tracks the price of bullion, is down 5.3% in the year through Monday, according to Yahoo Finance data. Read more here.

Forbes: The Rise And Fall Of Crazy Eddie: A Tale Of Epic Fraud

By SIMON CONSTABLE

How bad is the worst thing you’ve ever done at work? Maybe you “borrowed” a few pens and paper for your kids. Perhaps, you “fudged” some expenses. And maybe you now feel guilty about such petty thievery.

A recently published book, Retail Gangster: The INSANE, Real-Life Story of CRAZY EDDIE, will likely make that guilt disappear in a trice. 

When you compare whatever you did to what happened at long-gone electronics chain Crazy Eddie, most malfeasance will likely pale into insignificance. Put another way, your infractions would likely be as noticeable as a miniature barnacle on the backside of a blue whale. Read more here.



Saturday, August 27, 2022

Forbes: King Dollar? How The U.S’s Mighty Greenback’s Could Roar

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While soaring inflation took a bite out of your paycheck’s spending power, something else happened. The value of the dollar has surged, and by no small measure.

And it could go far higher before the rally ends, history shows. Read more here.

Forbes: China Suffers Another Dismal Month Of Steel Production

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

China’s economy continues to look wretched.

We know this because the country’s steel production continued to drop for yet another month. It fell 6.4% in July, and is down 6.4% for the first seven months of year, according to new data from the World Steel Association

For years China has been the world’s largest steel producer with output of 1.3 billion metric tons of the metal in 2021, or more than half of global production. In other words, it’s the world’s major producer. Read more here.

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Financial History Magazine: TWO DECADES OF THE Sarbanes-Oxley Laws

By SIMON CONSTABLE

At the beginning of the millennium, a massive stock market meltdown along with some notable examples of corporate malfeasance carved a hole in the public’s trust in the stock market. The government’s response was to enact the Sarbanes-Oxley legislation, which would pile a heap of new regulations on publicly traded corporations and their leaders. At the time, the move saw huge bipartisan support and was generally greeted favorably. However, in the intervening two decades, the fallout from the new laws led to some likely unintended, but rather predictable, outcomes. Read more here.

Photo by Solen Feyissa on Unsplash


Friday, August 19, 2022

Barron's: Coal Is in Hot Demand. That’s Good News for Glencore’s Stock.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Swiss-based commodities company Glencore has emerged as a prime beneficiary of Europe’s energy crisis. 

High prices for coal, one of the company’s main offerings, are likely to persist as the war in Ukraine pushes past the six-month mark.  That, in turn, could lead to double-digit gains for the stock.

“Glencore has already outperformed, and we think there is more to come,” says Tyler Broda, head of European mining RBC Capital Markets in London. “Russia’s invasion changed the calculus in the global energy balance, and coal is a very key part of that, especially in Europe.” Read more here.

Photo by Jose Losada on Unsplash


Thursday, August 11, 2022

Briefings Magazine: The Robots Are Coming: Faster, Better…Smarter?

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s in language translators. Virtual shopping guides. Online movie suggestions. It helps diagnose diseases, makes video games more exciting, and so on. As the century progresses, artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly ubiquitous. And that, say experts, is the problem. Read more here.

Attribution: PAL Robotics, CC BY-SA 4.0,
 via Wikimedia Commons



Barron's: Orange Juice Is Spiking. It Could Leave a Bad Taste.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It could be time for a mimosa cocktail while you still can afford one.

Orange juice prices could get fizzed up over the next few weeks. The market is already suffering from ultralow inventory levels, which means the risks of bad weather could potentially drive prices up more than 20% to record levels, say experts. Read more here.


Photo by Tangerine Newt on Unsplash


CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #MrMarket: #Climate: #Airbus: Severe drought condition from Scotland to Tuscany.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE


Listen here.

Photo by G-R Mottez on Unsplash

Monday, August 8, 2022

Friday, August 5, 2022

Barron's: Airbus Is a Steady Stock for Turbulent Times. Why It Could Soar 35%.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Airbus is ready for takeoff. Investors in the European aerospace company could see gains of more than 35% over the next 12 months as the company boosts production amid surging demand, analysts say.

“Airbus is on a very strong growth trajectory regardless of a recession and postpandemic normalization,” says Colin Scarola, an analyst at financial research company CFRA. He sees the stock (ticker: AIR.France) rising to 140 euros ($143) over the next year, up 35% from its recent level of €104. Plus, the stock yields a 1.4% dividend currently. U.S.-based investors could consider buying the American depositary receipts (EADSY.) Read more here.


CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons


Sunday, July 31, 2022

Forbes: China’s Economy Still Looking Worryingly Weak, Key Data Shows

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

A key economic indicator continues to show weakness in China

Steel production in the second largest economy was down 6.5% in the first six months of the year versus the same period a year earlier, according to World Steel Association data. Read more here.

via Wikimedia Commons

Friday, July 29, 2022

Forbes: Getting Ready For A Stock Rally: Why Stocks May Be Past The Worst For A While

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s more likely than not that the stock market has hit bottom.

In fact, it may have happened a few weeks ago, new research states.

“Odds that the S&P 500 put in a low on June 17th continue to stand at 60%,” according to a recent report from New York-based Macro Risk Advisors (MRA.) Read more here.


Photo by Redd on Unsplash


Forbes: Bad Omen: More German Inflation Will Lead To Higher Borrowing Costs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Europe’s largest economy continues to have economic problems. Read more here.


Thursday, July 28, 2022

Forbes: Gold Demand From Investors Dropping, But Still High Enough To Buoy Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Exchange-traded fund investors seem to be going soft on gold. On the face of it that doesn’t augur well for a rally in bullion prices anytime soon. But the truth is more complicated and there is still hope for the gold bulls. Read more here

Photo by Jingming Pan on Unsplash