WSJ Financial Flashback -- VISA's 2008 IPO Broke Records

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Exclusively in the print edition of The Wall Street Journal

#France: Cassis on the Mediterranean not yet returned from the lockdown damage. Simon Constable, Forbes, Barron's.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Cassis

Jean-Christophe BENOIST, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WDET Radio: How effective have economic sanctions against Russia been?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, one of the first pleas from President Vladimir Zelenskyy to President Joe Biden was for the West to “close the skies” over his country by creating a “no-fly zone” enforced by NATO, Europe and the U.S. Biden refused Zelenskyy’s request, noting the risk of American and Russian forces interacting could create a heightened chance of direct conflict, and ultimately war with Russia.

Instead, a tool the U.S. and other western nations opted to use even before the 2022 invasion began was economic sanctions.

But what exactly are economic sanctions and how effective have they been in this conflict Read and listen here.

The Kremlin

A.Savin, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: “Economic Surprises” Are Now Positive. So Where’s Is The Recession?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Continued worry about a pending recession is getting stranger by the day.

Starting in the middle of last year a media drum beat of imminent recession crossed the airwaves and the cable channels. Yet the recession hasn’t arrived and the recessionistas haven’t shut up.

They should, because we see good signs in the economy. Read more here.

Queue for Soup Kitchen

National Museum of Denmark from Denmark, 

Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Continued Sanctions On Russia “Unlikely To Deliver A Knockout Blow,” Think Tank

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

After a year of war in Ukraine, a major think tank has come to the conclusion that sanctions won’t crush Russia’s economy. The authors also realize that sanctioning China may be more than a little tricky, given how intertwined the U.S. is with the communist country’s economy. Read more here.

The Kremlin

Vincenzo Cardone, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Stock Market Sentiment Still Bearish — Keep Buying

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Stock investors have turned even more bearish, and that could be a signal that it's time to buy. Read more here.

pingnews.com, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: More News That Points To No Recession

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's now more than half a year since Wall Street’s Cassandras warned of an imminent unavoidable recession. It still isn’t here and yet now there are signs of growing global strength, experts say.

“Signs outside of economic data suggest the economy may be doing better than headlines indicate,” states Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. “One of those signs comes from copper, which is widely considered to be a leading indicator for global economic growth, given its extensive use across many sectors.” Read more here.

Bundles of Copper cathode

ChrisFountain at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Weird Winter Weather Set To Send Wheat Prices Back Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A combination of weather-related events looks set to cause sharp frosts that will hurt the forthcoming wheat crop, experts say. Read more here. 

Maurice Flesier, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Sanctions On Russia Still Aren’t Working

By SIMON CONSTABLE

We’re just over a year into the Russia-Ukraine war, and yet the much-touted economic sanctions from the west seem to have had little effect on persuading the the Kremlin to back off. If anything the reverse is true.

That’s a shame because so far up to 300,000 people have died in the conflict, according to some estimates. And the sanctions have done nothing to help. Read more here

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 

CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

#Ukraine: Commodities one year of European war later, moderating and declining. @BatchelorShow Forbes

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Kyivcity.gov.ua, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

#Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon departs yet Scotland still aims for independence and an EU membership. Occitane @BatchelorShow

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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New-York tribune, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Citywire: Risks loom large for high yield markets but there are also plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Most asset classes had a rough time in 2022 and high yield debt was no exception. As we come to terms with the new year, what is in store remains to be seen. However, there are both positives and negatives to consider.

The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF lost 12% last year – the worst performance since the global financial crisis. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean we are on course for a repeat. Read more here.

Dietmar Rabich / Wikimedia Commons /

 “New York City (New York, USA), Wall Street 

-- 2012 -- 6614” / CC BY-SA 4.0

#EU Why doesn't the EU raise up an Alphabet? Simon Constable, Briefings Magazine.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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InvadingInvader, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Briefings Magazine: Where Tech Starts, Ends

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Something odd happened almost three decades ago. Startup web-browser company Netscape went public, delighting investors despite having no profits. This event, on August 9, 1995, prompted one of the biggest global economic shifts since the industrial revolution. Over the last 27 years, web-based businesses have become behemoths worth billions of dollars: Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Netflix. Yet the overwhelming majority of these big tech companies come from just two countries: the US and China. Other countries, such as those in Europe or Asia (excluding China), lag hugely. Read more here.

WSJ: Financial Flashback --President Clinton Tanks the Stock Market

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Exclusively in the print edition of The Wall Street Journal

#EU: #US: A slowdown but perhaps not a recession? @BatchelorShow

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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General Soup Kitchen - 1880 by Mike Quinn, 

CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: UBS Warns U.S. Growth And Tech Investors, Prefers Germany

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors who benefited from the recent rally in tech and growth stocks might benefit from some caution, says a recent report from Swiss-based bank UBS.

“As we think that technical factors may have played a large role in the market performance so far this year, we expect this to eventually wane as fundamental factors resume the dominant position as market drivers,” writes Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Therefore, we advise investors to be cautious of those assets that were the biggest beneficiaries of such flows, like growth and tech equities.” His emphasis.

Read more here.

Ank Kumar, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Top Republican Warns High Risk Of China-Taiwan War. Here’s How To Invest If It Happens

By SIMON CONSTABLE

War is coming, and soon.

That’s the warning from those with the inside skinny in Washington D.C., Reuters reports.

The risks of China invading Taiwan are “very high,” said Mike McCaul, Foreign Affairs Committee chief. If military conflict is inevitable then investors need to prepare. Read more here.

日本防衛省・統合幕僚監部, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Central Banks Buy Gold Like It's 1967, While ETF Investors Ditched It - World Gold Council

By SIMON  CONSTABLE

Central banks couldn’t seem to get enough bullion for their vaults last year.

Collectively they purchased 1,136 metric tons of the metal worth more than $70 billion in 2022. It was also the biggest level of purchasing since 1967, more than half a century ago, according to data provided by industry group World Gold Council. Read more here.

James St. John, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Lumber Prices Set For A Surge As Homebuilding Rebounds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The homebuilding business looks like it's ticking up again after a tricky 2022. And with it investors should see lumber prices lift as well. The latter had a brutal year also.

“Lumber, we believe, has made a major low,” writes Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. “The lumber market has likely made a major low and can trend substantially higher over the next year.” Read more here.

Tartakizbica, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Year-Old Tonga Eruption To Keep Global Weather Wild For Years

By SIMON CONSTABLE

We are not out of the woods yet regarding high food and energy prices.

An epic volcanic eruption in the Pacific in mid-January last year is likely to keep causing havoc for the planet.

The Tonga undersea volcano unleashed staggering power, the equivalent of up to 18 megatons of TNT, according to experts at NASA. That’s multiple times the size of the nuclear bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima at the end of WWII. Read more here.

Japan Meteorological Agency, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Latin American Currency Area Bad News For Debt-Laden Countries Like Argentina

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Argentina and Brazil are making plans to develop a single currency area for Latin America.

However, those doing so might find it is not without some massive hurdles. Read more here.

Argentina's Maradonna 

here and here, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: No Recession In 2023, New Research Shows

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Phew!

At last some analysts are seeing what I’ve seen for months now: A slowing economy but few signs of an imminent recession.

The economy will slow in 2023 but will not likely lead to a recession, new research from scholars at the University of Missouri and Indiana University shows. Read more here.

Bowery men waiting fin bread line, (New York City)

George Grantham Bain Collection, Public domain, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes.com: Biden And Sunak - The Energy Policy Odd Couple

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Talk about the odd couple.

On the face of it, Britain's prime minister Rishi Sunak and U.S. president would seem to have little in common. The former is a right-of-center politician with an eye on free markets, while the latter is a left-of-center leader.

Yet, recent news shows they have at least one thing in common. They are both presiding over their national energy policies, which are without doubt self-contradictory and inconsistent. Read more here.

Office of the President of the United States, 

Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor -- #Commodities: South of France turns Winter. @BatchelorShow Occitane.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Photo by Anandu Vinod on Unsplash

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor -- #MrMarket: Daffodils poking free in Occitane in the miracle mild European Winter. WSJ, Barron's. @BatchelorShow

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

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Photo by Andréas BRUN on Unsplash

CityWire: Oil and ESG Face Off

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Last year, ESG investing was the future. Then the energy crisis hit. Read more here.

Photo by Feri & Tasos on Unsplash

CityWire: How surging oil prices affect fixed income

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bond markets have radically shifted, and this change is rooted in several factors. One is the evolving nature of the energy industry in the past decade; another, the recent surge in inflation.

Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, explains: ‘Junk today is not the same as junk ten years ago.' Read more here.

Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

WSJ: Financial Flashback -- 2003 Begins Cloaked in Gloom @jackablin

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Exclusively in the print edition of The Wall Street Journal

CBS Eye on the World with @BatchelorShow: #MrMarket: The price of copper. Barron's

By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Occidental Petroleum, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: 3 Things To Watch In 2023: Ukraine, China And Europe Matter

By SIMON CONSTABLE

No one knows for sure what 2023 will bring to Wall Street.

Nevertheless, recent history suggests what we might want to keep an eye on over the next 12 months. Read more here.

Mvs.gov.ua, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Wilma Soss. The Woman Who Changed Wall Street Forever

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Women making a major difference on Wall Street is now the norm.

But decades before Cathy Wood made a splash then a crash with the tech-focused ARK Innovation ETF exchange-traded fund, there was Wilma Soss. 

And did she make a difference or what! Read more here.

Forbes: Individual Investors Bail On Everything In December, Data Show

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Individual investors seem to have caught the jitters in every asset class.

That’s usually a positive sign for the market as a whole, which should come as a relief following a year when stocks and bonds both took a serious beating. Read more here.

Photo by Tomas Eidsvold on Unsplash

Forbes: Loan Data Shows Exceptional Economic Health, Though HELOCs May Be Cracking

By SIMON CONSTABLE

How bad is the economy?

Not nearly as bad as some are saying, at least according to some key loan metrics. Read more here.

Photo by Jonathan Borba on Unsplash

Forbes: Much Crypto Trading On Unregulated Platforms Could Be Phony, New Research Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

If the scandal surrounding the FTX crypto-exchange wasn’t bad enough to scare all-but the crypto diehards to flee, now there’s even more bad news for cryptocurrency investors.

Up to four fifths of crypto trading on unregulated crypto exchanges may be phony, new research shows. Read more here.

Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash

Forbes Greece: Ύφεση ακούμε και ύφεση δεν βλέπουμε – μήπως ο Milton Friedman είχε δίκιο;

Του Simon Constable

Φτάνει πια με τη συζήτηση περί ύφεσης. Εδώ και –τουλάχιστον– έξι μήνες πολλοί οικονομολόγοι προβλέπουν μια επικείμενη επιβράδυνση ή κατάρρευση που θα συντρίψει την αμερικανική οικονομία.

Όπως τόσες και τόσες προβλέψεις στα ΜΜΕ, ούτε αυτή έχει εκπληρωθεί. Ούτε κατά διάνοια. Σε άρθρο μου που δημοσίευσα τον περασμένο Ιούνιο ανέφερα ότι υπήρχαν ελάχιστες ενδείξεις για ύφεση – τα σημάδια έδειχνα απλώς επιβράδυνση της ανάπτυξης. 

Εντούτοις, οι εκκλήσεις για "οικονομική λήθη" δεν κόπασαν, μα ακόμα περιμένουμε την ύφεση. 

Αυτή η αστοχία –και άλλες παρόμοιες– αποτελεί μάλλον την αιτία που έκανε τον οικονομολόγο J.K. Galbraith να αποφανθεί: "Η μόνη λειτουργικότητα των οικονομικών προβλέψεων είναι να κάνουν την αστρολογία να δείχνει αξιοσέβαστη". Και όντως η εικόνα της αστρολογίας βελτιώνεται κάθε μέρα. 

Barron's: Copper Is Sliding. Where Inflation Could Send Prices Next Year.

By SIMON  CONSTABLE

Copper prices will probably tumble nearly 20% over the next 12 months as demand cools and supplies stay stable amid a likely economic slowdown, experts say. 

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices edge lower,” says Carlos Sanchez, director of commodities management at New York–based CPM Group. Read more here.

Photo by Ra Dragon on Unsplash

Forbes: Long-Time Gold Bear JC Parets Turns Bullish; $5,000 Possible

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A long-time bear on investing in gold bullion seems to have flip-flopped.

Now he’s bullish, and how! Read more here.

 

Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash

Forbes: Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation? Probably Not, New Research Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

We all know inflation is bad right now. But will the Federal Reserve’s actions have any helpful consequences?

Probably not, new research shows.

“The prevailing view that rate hikes are causative in curbing inflation implies a negative correlation between the two variables,” writes David Ranson, director of research at financial analytics firm HCWE & Co. Read more here.

Federal Reserve, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons