Barron's: New Study Says Gasoline Prices Headed Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For many investors, a coin toss may seem like the most reliable way to forecast U.S. gasoline prices. But researchers say they’ve developed a system to tilt the odds.

Unfortunately, their statistical technique indicates that gas prices are likely to march steadily higher over the next 18 months. Read more here.

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WSJ: North Africa Primed For Economic Growth Spurt

By SIMON CONSTABLE

For those looking for a sunny economic outlook, it might be worth a trip to North Africa.

Economic growth in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia could surge as high as 6%-a-year, according to a new report from London-based firm Capital Economics. But they will only achieve that level with much-needed economic reforms the report’s author Jason Tuvey notes. See original story here.

Morocco

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WSJ: Why You Should Worry About Your Fund Manager’s Love Life

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When managers of hedge funds get divorced or married, it’s bad news for their investors. Their asset returns are likely to suffer. Worse still, the pain could last years.

That is the conclusion from a working research paper by academics at the University of Florida and Singapore Management University.

While the general news—that either event is distracting enough to lower job performance—might seem obvious, the paper goes further by answering the important questions: How much do investment returns suffer, and over what period? In short, returns get hit a lot, and the dip is long.

“We find that money managers significantly underperform during a divorce,” states the paper, “Limited Attention, Marital Events, and Hedge Funds,” by Yan Lu,Sugata Ray and Melvyn Teo. “The distraction induced by a marriage has a similar effect.” Read more here.

Cupid

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WSJ: What is a Bear Market?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What do investors mean when they talk about a bear market? It depends on whom you ask.

Many say it’s when stock indexes drop by at least 20% in a short time. Some specify a two-month period. Others, however, see it differently. See original story here.

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Barrons: Time to Stock Up On Wheat

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for wheat prices to reach for the sky. In fact, depending on the weather, they could more than double from current levels.

How so? “Wheat supplies relative to global demand and relative to global trade are the lowest they have been in 50 years,” writes Shawn Hackett, author of the Hackett Money Flow Report, in a recent research note. What he looks at is the ratio of year-end inventories to the level of wheat that is traded on the global market. See original story here.

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MarketWatch: Britain’s National Bird Should be Awesome, Not Ordinary

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When it comes to creative ideas, the right execution means so much. That’s why Britain’s“Vote for Britain’s National Bird” campaign is so irksome.

A fantastic opportunity has been missed through a startling lack of imagination.

The vote is now down to a shortlist of birds. They are OK, as far as they go, which actually isn’t very far. The list is as follows: Barn owl, blackbird, blue tit, hen harrier, kingfisher, mute swan, puffin, red kite, robin and wren. In fact, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen most of these wonderful creatures in the wild myself.

There’s the problem, because that fact alone — that most of the birds are a longstanding part of the domestic fauna, just doesn’t fit with the rest of Britain’s national animals.

Take, for instance, the lion and the unicorn, respectively the national animals of England and Scotland; They are rarely if ever seen loping across Britain’s fields. Likewise the Welsh mascot, the dragon, is rarely, if ever, seen flying around. See original story here.

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WSJ: So You Found a Warrant in Your Mutual Fund?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Occasionally, when you look through a mutual fund’s holdings, you’ll come across securities called warrants. What are they, and why would anyone want them?

Warrants are almost identical to stock options. These securities allow the holder to buy a company’s stock at a predetermined price, called the strike price, for a set period. If the stock’s price rises above the strike price, the warrant holder can purchase shares at a below-market price. See original story here.