WSJ: What Is the Presidential Predictor?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Will the stock market’s performance this year determine who will be the next U.S. president?

It’s a questionable proposition, but a study of market data in presidential election years since World War II found a strong correlation between the performance of the S&P 500 index and who ended up in the White House. Read more here.

Forbes: Truman's Forgotten Economic Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

President Harry S. Truman is famous for many great lines, including one of my favorites: ”I never gave anybody hell! I just told the truth and they thought it was hell.”

What perhaps isn’t so well known is the economic turmoil his administration had to navigate as peace broke out.

Kenneth Weisbrode reveals that story, as well as other parts of the first post-war year, in his new book: The Year of Indecision, 1946: A Tour Through the Crucible of Harry Truman’s America. It was published in March. 

Read more here.

Forbes: Worst Boss Possible Part 13

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part 13 of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part 12 here.

I read with horror about a new practice sweeping the offices of corporate America. It seems tailor-made for the awful manager. In this case, a very high level manager.

CNN Money reports that companies are introducing “hoteling” and “beach toweling.” Confused?

Read more here.

Forbes: Worst Boss Possible -- Part 12

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part 12 of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part 11 here.

One of the things I've noticed about great bosses is that they are consistent in the way they treat their team. It's not just in one way, but in all. For instance, they are typically consistently fair, consistently level headed, consistently decent to people, consistently respectful, consistently encouraging etc. You get the idea.

I have had bosses who behaved this way and I adored them. However, this column is about how to be truly awful as a manager.

If you want any chance of achieving the status of the world's worst boss, then you must in no way be consistent. Instead, you should strive for what I call "self-contradictory inconsistencies."

Read more here.

U.S. News: Why Is Investor Sentiment So Bad?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Mr. Market has caught a case of the grumps. The question is why – and what that means for your investments. 

Pessimism remains above its historical average of 30 percent for a seventh consecutive week and for the ninth time in 10 weeks, according to the American Association of Individual Investors. 
That ambivalence has led investors to buy so-called safe-haven investments such as Treasury bonds and gold, rather than riskier assets such as stocks. Read more here.

Photo by Niklas Kickl on Unsplash

U.S. News: 3 Stocks to Play to Shortage of Phosphorus

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It could be time to feed your portfolio with some plant food stocks, but only if you are prepared to take a very long-term view. 

The world's grasslands, which is where much meat and milk production ultimately starts out, are being depleted of a vital mineral. Phosphorus is the chemical that farmers apply through fertilizer to replenish grassland after grazing. 

A new study that in the Nature Communications journal warns that an acceleration in grassland degradation will require farmers to apply four times as much phosphorus – both from livestock manure and commercial products – to their pastures by 2050 to "achieve an anticipated 80 percent increase in grass production" and keep the soil fertile. Read more here.

Photo by chris robert on Unsplash

OZY: Simonomics on the Brexit -- What's At Stake?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you travel to Britain now, you can almost hear the sounds of the Clash singing, “Should I stay or should I go? / If I stay there will be trouble / And if I go it will be double.” That tune springs to mind as the people of my homeland, Britain, prepare for the Brexit referendum, in which they will decide on June 23 whether Britain exits the European Union. And there’s a lot riding on the vote.
Britain’s politicians, who at times can make Donald Trump sound measured, are venting their frustrations with the EU. The beef is basically what can London do, or not do, while still remaining inside the EU. There’s a long history of, shall we kindly say, this sort of tension. This time, a lot of it involves questions of migration and who can claim pricey British social benefits.

So Prime Minister David Cameron has renegotiated the membership deal, at least enough in his view to recommend that British people vote to stay in the EU. That’s where this referendum is quite different from an election, because in the run-up to the big talks between Europe’s leaders there was every incentive to look like the country would bail. Now that the deal is done, the discussion about leaving the EU has taken on a life of its own, with a high-profile member of the ruling Conservative Party recommending people to vote to exit. Read more here.