Forbes: Bitcoin Trips at Its First Major Test

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It looks like Bitcoin didn't do that well in its first major test as a substitute for gold.

While the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted Monday, so did the price of bitcoin, which is the best known of all the so-called Crypto-currencies. Gold prices remained remarkably steady. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: The missing volatility is back.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

WSJ: The Benefits of Buying Both the Best- and Worst-Performing Funds

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Should you invest in last year’s underperformers or continue with last year’s winners? The answer is yes, according to a recent analysis. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Hot Money?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors in some emerging markets may hear warnings about hot money. So, what is it and why does it matter? Read more here.

Photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash

P.J. Media: The Government’s Inflation Data Caught 'Percentile Dysfunction'

By SIMON CONSTABLE

As if we didn’t already know something was wrong with the government’s inflation data, now up pops what looks like a confession. It’s part of a broader issue with government metrics that one economist dubs “percentile dysfunction.”

New research shows there’s a problem in how the prescription drug portion of the consumer price index gets calculated. Another, perhaps more realistic, index of drug prices far outgrew the CPI's drug metric over a recent five-year sample period, with one part of the alternative metric increasing 59 percent more. Read more here.

P.J. Media: Bad Monetary Move-- A Weak Dollar Is an America-Last Policy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A weak dollar is not an America-first dollar. It is an America-last strategy.

Of course, it isn’t at all clear whether pushing the value of the greenback down is the goal of the administration.  Wall Street seems divided on the matter.

For instance, a recent report from Brown Brothers Harriman states the following: “Did U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin signal a change in the U.S. dollar policy?  Probably not.” The reason, BBH says, is partly because of the Treasury’s urgent need to sell a lot of debt securities, possibly more than a trillion dollars. “It beggars belief that Mnuchin was talking the dollar down, introducing new currency risk, ahead of the quarterly refunding and a significant increase in the supply of Treasuries in the months ahead,” BBH continues. Read more here.

Briefings: A World of Doubts

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It was 2013, and the decision in China hardly raised any eyebrows in the global investment community—at least at first. Concerned about rogue financing, the government said it would crack down on so-called “shadow banking” firms, which are financial institutions that operate with little or no regulation. Too much bad lending, China’s leaders said, could mean a repeat of 2008.

Which appeared to make sense, except that over time, the move exposed a major weakness in China: its inability to attract enough investment and to switch to a US-style consumer-led economy at the same time. The crackdown would squeeze lending too much, and China’s economy slowed. But most importantly, it created new doubts about the nation’s policies—and ultimately a dramatic exodus of international investment.

All of which raises a curious question: How do you anticipate and measure investor confidence on a large scale? Read more here.