Forbes: Alexander Hamilton As U.S. Economic Architect

By SIMON CONSTABLE

How did America get so rich so quickly?

It’s a question at the heart of economics, which in one broad definition, is a study of how some countries get rich and some stay poor.

Some people, including me, would say that the United States benefited hugely from sound property rights and hands-off government (as in “keep your filthy hands off my stuff.”) Then add some bootstraps to pull, a lot of hard work, and then hopefully you get rich.

Not everyone sees it quite like that. For instance, the authors of the recently published book Concrete Economics: The Hamilton Approach to Economic Growth and Policy by Stephen S. Cohen and J. Bradford DeLong, say there was a heavy policy role for government in the early years of the republic, and one that continued quite successfully until it all went wrong starting with the Reagan administration in the 1980s. Read more here.

U.S. News: Hidden Mutual Fund Fees That Are Robbing Your Returns

By SIMON CONSTABLE

So you've accumulated a nest egg by investing in mutual funds. Congratulations! That puts you ahead of the game. 

But to grow an even bigger stash, try squeezing out the fees. 

"Make sure you pay as little of that gross return in fees as you can," says Mitch Tuchman, managing director at Rebalance IRA, a financial services company in Palo Alto, California. Fees ultimately eat into any gains made by the mutual funds you own. 

But mutual fund fees are only about 1 percent of the assets, right? Wrong – on three counts. 

Read more here.

Fortune: Here Are the Stocks to Buy if Donald Trump Becomes President

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Big change in the land’s highest office can mean big changes in the economy.In general, promises are broken or only half kept. Still, we get clues on which areas of the economy will be favored, and which will not. Health care got a boost under President Obama, and defense did well under George W. Bush.

With any politician running for office it’s hard to know exactly how things will turn out if they’re elected. What if Donald Trump were to become the next U.S. President, which sectors would benefit then? Here’s what some experts had to say on the matter:

TheStreet: Scrap the C-note to Stop Crime? It's a Red Herring

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Something smells fishy about the call to scrap large denomination currency, such as the U.S. $100 bill and the €500 note.

The idea, forwarded by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, is that the only people who really use such money are criminals and terrorists.

"Extensive analysis is totally convincing on the linkage between high denomination notes and crime," Lawrence wrote in a recent editorial for The Washington Post.

The problem is that such assertions don't pass even the most cursory sniff test. Read more here.

U.S. News: The Disconnect Between the Economy and Wall Street

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Ugh! The financial world seems to have developed a touch of cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, the economy is slowly, but surely, getting better. On the other hand, investors seem jittery, like addicts waiting in agony for their next fix. 

It can be confusing, but here's what you need to know. Read more here.

TheStreet: Lower Oil Prices Are Actually Stopping a U.S. Recession, Not Causing One

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What a difference a few months makes: Not so long ago, hand-wringing pundits warned that plunging oil prices portended an ugly global recession from which the U.S. wouldn't escape.

Now that concern seems overblown. The economy continues to grow and add jobs -- 242,000 in February, according to the latest government data. Read more here.

WSJ: Gender Bias in Hedge Funds?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Running a successful hedge fund is a challenge for anyone. But it’s especially hard for women, a recent study says.

Hedge funds run by women are struggling for capital despite there being no statistically significant difference in performance between their funds and those run by men, according to new research. Part of the reason, say the researchers, is that women running hedge funds get a low level of news-media attention. Read more here.

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WSJ: What Is the Presidential Predictor?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Will the stock market’s performance this year determine who will be the next U.S. president?

It’s a questionable proposition, but a study of market data in presidential election years since World War II found a strong correlation between the performance of the S&P 500 index and who ended up in the White House. Read more here.

Forbes: Truman's Forgotten Economic Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

President Harry S. Truman is famous for many great lines, including one of my favorites: ”I never gave anybody hell! I just told the truth and they thought it was hell.”

What perhaps isn’t so well known is the economic turmoil his administration had to navigate as peace broke out.

Kenneth Weisbrode reveals that story, as well as other parts of the first post-war year, in his new book: The Year of Indecision, 1946: A Tour Through the Crucible of Harry Truman’s America. It was published in March. 

Read more here.

Forbes: Worst Boss Possible Part 13

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part 13 of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part 12 here.

I read with horror about a new practice sweeping the offices of corporate America. It seems tailor-made for the awful manager. In this case, a very high level manager.

CNN Money reports that companies are introducing “hoteling” and “beach toweling.” Confused?

Read more here.

Forbes: Worst Boss Possible -- Part 12

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part 12 of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part 11 here.

One of the things I've noticed about great bosses is that they are consistent in the way they treat their team. It's not just in one way, but in all. For instance, they are typically consistently fair, consistently level headed, consistently decent to people, consistently respectful, consistently encouraging etc. You get the idea.

I have had bosses who behaved this way and I adored them. However, this column is about how to be truly awful as a manager.

If you want any chance of achieving the status of the world's worst boss, then you must in no way be consistent. Instead, you should strive for what I call "self-contradictory inconsistencies."

Read more here.

U.S. News: Why Is Investor Sentiment So Bad?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Mr. Market has caught a case of the grumps. The question is why – and what that means for your investments. 

Pessimism remains above its historical average of 30 percent for a seventh consecutive week and for the ninth time in 10 weeks, according to the American Association of Individual Investors. 
That ambivalence has led investors to buy so-called safe-haven investments such as Treasury bonds and gold, rather than riskier assets such as stocks. Read more here.

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U.S. News: 3 Stocks to Play to Shortage of Phosphorus

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It could be time to feed your portfolio with some plant food stocks, but only if you are prepared to take a very long-term view. 

The world's grasslands, which is where much meat and milk production ultimately starts out, are being depleted of a vital mineral. Phosphorus is the chemical that farmers apply through fertilizer to replenish grassland after grazing. 

A new study that in the Nature Communications journal warns that an acceleration in grassland degradation will require farmers to apply four times as much phosphorus – both from livestock manure and commercial products – to their pastures by 2050 to "achieve an anticipated 80 percent increase in grass production" and keep the soil fertile. Read more here.

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OZY: Simonomics on the Brexit -- What's At Stake?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you travel to Britain now, you can almost hear the sounds of the Clash singing, “Should I stay or should I go? / If I stay there will be trouble / And if I go it will be double.” That tune springs to mind as the people of my homeland, Britain, prepare for the Brexit referendum, in which they will decide on June 23 whether Britain exits the European Union. And there’s a lot riding on the vote.
Britain’s politicians, who at times can make Donald Trump sound measured, are venting their frustrations with the EU. The beef is basically what can London do, or not do, while still remaining inside the EU. There’s a long history of, shall we kindly say, this sort of tension. This time, a lot of it involves questions of migration and who can claim pricey British social benefits.

So Prime Minister David Cameron has renegotiated the membership deal, at least enough in his view to recommend that British people vote to stay in the EU. That’s where this referendum is quite different from an election, because in the run-up to the big talks between Europe’s leaders there was every incentive to look like the country would bail. Now that the deal is done, the discussion about leaving the EU has taken on a life of its own, with a high-profile member of the ruling Conservative Party recommending people to vote to exit. Read more here.

TheStreet: 7 Must-Read Books if You Want to Get Rich, in Dollars and Sense

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's often said that very successful people don't waste time watching TV. Instead, they read voraciously.

Which begs the question, 'What should you read?' Will sappy romances and airport thrillers do the trick? Self-help guides, maybe? It depends, ultimately, on how you define success. 

If you want to learn something about money, investing, and accumulating wealth, then the trick is to find some books on the topic that won't bore you silly. Here are some new ones as well as a few that have stood the test of time.

Let's start with something hot off the press: The Devil's Financial Dictionary by Jason Zweig, a veteran financial journalist and former colleague of mine at the Dow Jones division of Newscorp.

Read more here.

U.S. News: How To Invest In India

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In a world where major economies are either slowing (China) or growing at sluggish rates (the European Union), there is one country that stands out: India. 

In fact, India has the potential to be huge, but there is opportunity there only for investors with a strong stomach. Read more here.

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TheStreet: How Digital Style Helps Insurers Profile You -- And Save You Money

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Would you strap on an Apple Watch or Fitbit device to get a better deal on your health insurance?

You may have the opportunity soon, as the once-stodgy insurance business explores ways to take advantage of vast quantities of consumer health data and the proliferation of wearable devices. Many insurers are conducting pilot tests that involve asking people to wear personal devices that collect health information, says Shane Cassidy, senior vice president for North American insurance with consulting firm CapGemini Financial Services in Chicago. Read more here.

Forbes: How To Live Like Charles Bukowski

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Abel Debritto is back with another edited compilation of writing by Charles Bukowski, this time he deals with the heart. The book, On Love, was published by Ecco in early February.

As with all things Bukowski, it is about much more than the title. It’s about life, failure, success, and regrets. One thing I like about him is that he pursued his own goals rather than the goals others might have set for him. That’s something we should all learn. Read more here.

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Barron's: The Great Orange Juice Squeeze

By SIMON CONSTABLE

This might be hard to swallow, but a case CAN be made that orange-juice futures will soon go the way of the dodo. The market certainly isn’t quite as sweet as it once was.

“OJ is a market that has been racing to the bottom of a futures-market extinction event,” says Shawn Hackett, CEO and president of Hackett Financial Advisors and author of the Hackett Money Flow Report.

At least part of the problem is that orange juice isn’t the staple it once was. Slipping consumption is having a knock-on effect in the futures market, which could eventually mean orange juice no longer will attract enough interest from speculative traders to be viable. Read more here.

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Forbes: Worst Boss -- Part 11

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part 11 of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part 10 here.

For this part the focus shall be on quitting. There are great ways to quit, but as a terrible boss you should pick only awful ways. Here are some examples, with commentary.

U.S. News: How to Spot the Bear Market and Beat It

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If stocks are in a bear market, the last thing investors need is to hear about it after the fact. It's as unhelpful as being told, "You should have been here yesterday." 

The pullback in the Standard & Poor's 500 index hasn't yet reached the classic definition of a bear market, which is a decline of 20 percent or more. But by that measure, the drop is nearly here. 

Are we headed for a bear market, and what should investors do? The answers are tricky.

Read more here.

TheStreet: Recession? We're Not There Yet, So Don't Hit the Panic Button

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The doomsayers may have jumped the gun a bit: Some pundits and analysts say a recession is just around the corner. 

The evidence isn't there, however. Not just yet, anyway. Yes, eventually we will have a recession in the United States. The world of commerce has always had business cycles -- expansions followed by contractions. This time is no different.

But is one imminent now? Not at all, according to some key measures. Read more here.

Forbes: Ten Things To Learn From Hunter S. Thompson

By SIMON CONSTABLE

I’ve long been a fan of Hunter S. Thompson, author of such classics as “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas” and “Hell’s Angels.” So when I saw a book by his son, Juan F. Thompson, published in January I itched to get a copy.

The book, Stories I Tell Myself by Juan F. Thompson: Growing Up with Hunter S. Thompson, is a fine read. In some ways, it’s a love letter to his departed father. Perhaps more important, is that for us as outsiders it paints a three-dimensional portrait of a literary giant. People are complicated; Thompson Sr. more than most. 

Read more here.

Forbes: Worst Boss Possible -- Part 10

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part ten of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part nine here.

Apparently, there are more than a few awful bosses out there. Jobs site Monster.com just released a survey showing that almost one third of respondents said their boss was quote “horrible.”  The survey was conducted from December 7 through December 21 and asked the question, “On a scale of 1 to 5, how would you rate your boss?” The results they sent to me were as follows.

WSJ: Are Too Many Choices Costing 401(k) Holders?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In investing, choice usually is a good thing. But new research suggests that having too many choices in a 401(k) retirement plan could be costly for participants.

Researchers studied a 401(k)-type plan that reduced the number of mutual funds it offered by close to half. They found that investors who were forced to shift their money out of the funds being eliminated from the plan tended to move into funds with lower fees—even though the funds available after the plan was streamlined had almost exactly the same range of fees as the menu of funds before the choices were reduced.

Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Capital Flight?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors might hear the term “capital flight” a lot more this year. It’s important to anyone who has invested in emerging markets, especially China.

So what is it? Capital flight is the term for unusually large amounts of money leaving a country to be invested elsewhere. It often happens when investors en masse lose faith in a country’s economic prospects.

Read more here.

U.S. News: A Shoebox of Penny Stocks and Other Investing Horror Stories

By SIMON CONSTABLE

So very often the mantra of personal finance is simple: Make small changes now, and decades from now you'll make some huge gains. 

It might not be as thrilling as riding the Coney Island Cyclone, but it seems to work. Slow and steady wins the day, at least financially. 

But what about when all that prudent advice goes out the window? What happens when the counsel of trained financial whiz-kids and seasoned sages is ignored? The following real-world examples from financial advisers across the U.S. should give you an idea. And here's a hint – it's not pretty. Read more here.

TheStreet: How Obamacare is Cutting Your Salary -- And Your Vacation Budget

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Economic reality is catching up with the  Affordable Care Act, aka  Obamacare, according to two recent reports. 

The problem is that while acts of Congress can be repealed, the basic laws of economics cannot. In this case, the law in question is one that most students are taught on the first day of economics class: There is no such thing as a free lunch. Someone always pays. 

Obamacare is proving no different. First, people with employer-based health insurance are paying in the form of lower salaries because of the extension of coverage to dependent children through age 25. 

Read more here.

Forbes: Why We Need To Stop Managing People Like Widgets -- Book

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When I first came to the United States, what was notable to me was the amazing conformity exhibited by employees. This manifested in terms of the way many spoke, what clothes they wore, and what hobbies they had (sometimes none.) In the land where individuality supposedly ruled, it was often absent on the surface in a lot of my colleagues. At least that’s how it seemed at the time.

What I now realize is that it was the managers that wanted conformity (and the employees complied in a  shallow way). For managers that meant it was easier to manage people. If two people were viewed as basically the same then they could be moved into each other’s roles. In some sense, the managers were treating people in the way that Henry Ford treated car parts — they needed to be interchangeable. The problem is that people aren’t made in moulds.

That reality is the focus of a recently published book, The End of Average: How We Succeed In A World That Values Sameness by Todd Rose.

Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Rolling Down the Yield Curve?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes you’ll hear investors talk about rolling down the yield curve. 

The term refers to a strategy of selling bonds before they mature in an effort to profit from rising prices. In bond markets, prices rise when yields fall, which is what tends to happen as bonds approach maturity.

The concept, while confusing, is important to understand, especially for those bond investors worried about rising interest rates. Read more here.

Forbes: Schlonging the Dragon: Three Essays To Get You Into B-School

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you want to go to B-school you can write an essay which details every certificate you ever earned or every piece of paper you once shuffled. You could spend six months crafting something with many caveats and weasel words about what you did.

Alternatively, you could learn to tell a story. Compelling tales capture the imagination in 

ways that simply listing a series of events cannot. Here are three examples. In the first two cases, you will need to adapt the narrative to your specific work situation. Shoehorn your story into these templates.

The third essay is self explanatory and probably not applicable to most people.

Read more here.

Forbes: Worst Boss Part 9

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part nine of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part eight here.

To be supportive to your employees means that sometimes you must prevent them from hurting themselves. Such interventions can also sometimes cause your department to suffer. Still, it's what a compassionate person does.

Of course, as a potential "worst boss possible" you shouldn't be so caring. Instead, you should exploit your workers at a time when they really need help and compassion. Read more here.

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U.S. News: Is the End in Sight for the Natural Gas Slide?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors hoping for a turnaround in natural gas prices may have to wait until the second half of the year, at the earliest. 

Prices for the commodity, which is used for heating homes, power generation and to make plant food, have been in a downtrend for almost two years. Front-month futures contracts were recently trading at $2.188 per million British thermal units on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The last major peak in prices was in February 2014 at more than $8, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

Reasons for the rout are legion and include the global decline in commodity demand, increases in supply from new techniques of extraction and a strong U.S. dollar, which makes all dollar dominated materials cheaper. 

Read more here.

Forbes: Snow Day Money Tasks!

By SIMON CONSTABLE

East coast snowpocaplyse shouldn’t become a wasted day. Quite the contrary. It presents the perfect opportunity to review (and plan) your financial life for the year ahead. Instead of binge-watching “Breaking Bad” or the “Making of a Murderer,” tackle these tasks first, then reward yourself with a movie later in the day. Read more here.

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OZY: An Investing Legend on the Global Market Woes

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The bears are coming. Bear markets, that is. Already, stocks in the U.K., France and Japan have plummeted more than 20 percent from their highs in 2015, which is traditionally seen as bear market territory, while U.S. equities have had their worst start to a year on record. 

But you don’t see investing legend and Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel hitting the panic button. In a recent sit-down with OZY, the author of the best-selling investment classic A Random Walk Down Wall Street remained calm as he discussed global stock swings, China’s slowdown and positive prospects for the future of the U.S. economy — as evidenced by what we’ll call the Chewbacca or C-3PO effect. Read more here.

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U.S. News: Why Mutual Funds Lost Their Mojo

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Staying power usually means a lot on Wall Street. But apparently when it comes to mutual funds, hardly any portfolio managers have such mojo. 

Mutual funds with managers who pick securities rather than follow an index – so-called actively managed funds – seem to have little or no ability to stay ahead of the competition, even for periods as short as five years.

"Over a longer-term investment horizon, it is very, very hard for a manager to maintain a top quartile performance," says Aye Soe, senior director of global research and design at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Read more here.

OZY: When Trade School Meets Wall Street

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Imagine a scene of industrial lathes spinning, sparks flying from a welding torch and flames shooting up from workbenches. It’s a classic industrial workshop, just like the one where I studied for five years during high school in northern England. In a sense, it was like a trade school. We were learning the skills for the workplace, but the relevant jobs had mostly disappeared before we even finished. Now, it’s relevant again, because of increasing calls to encourage more studying at trade school rather than college. Read more here.

TheStreet: Why a Higher Minimum Wage Will Make Workers Poorer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes you get two pieces of news so at odds with each other that it defies logic.

The last few days of the old year combined with the first few days of 2016 brought such a mind-muddling mess. On the one hand, 14 states started to implement higher minimum wage requirements on Jan. 1, with the goal of reducing income inequality. Read more here.

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Forbes: GE Heads North And Why You May Get A Deal On A Conn. House

By SIMON CONSTABLE
It’s official: General Electric GE +0.00% is retreating from Connecticut and relocating its headquarters to Boston.

CEO Jeff Immelt says it’s a move to get it closer to an “ecosystem that shares our aspirations.” That and be near all those amazing universities in Cambridge, etc. It makes sense given that the Boston beltway is something of a Silicon Valley of the East.

I guess Yale University being in Connecticut just didn’t sway the powers that be. Still, the move could be good for house hunters looking for a deal in the nutmeg state. Read more here.

TheStreet: 7 Reasons You Should Love -- Or At Least Like -- the Market's Slide

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Ouch. Financial markets' performance this year has been nothing short of painful for many investors.

Chances are, you're still feeling the sting of 6% drops by both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 last week. It was, in fact, the worst start to a New Year ever for the S&P. There are nonetheless some good reasons to embrace the volatility, though:

Read more here.

U.S. News: Why China's Market Woes Will Hurt Some Emerging Markets

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Ouch! China has unleashed a financial typhoon on world markets. 

It's true that U.S. stocks got broadly hammered. But the real issue won't be how China's slowing economy affects the U.S. – because it likely won't.

Rather, the big impact will be felt by emerging market economies that have historically relied heavily on commodity exports, as well as some non-emerging markets that bet big on the materials business. 

Read more here.

OZY: How China's Money Mess Helps the U.S.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Assuming he wasn’t much of a markets investor, baseball great Yogi Berra might have taken some odd pleasure in watching the financial markets unfold lately if only to repeat his famous goofy line: It was “déjà vu all over again.” We are talking, of course, about the recent meltdown in China, followed by a pretty nasty start to the year on Wall Street, where investors couldn’t have been pleased by an apparent repeat of August’s China-led stock pullback.

But investors are always looking for silver linings, and some may yet find theirs. At least some folks are promising, hoping and praying as much — that roiling markets in China might make for hay in the United States and elsewhere. What’s more, they could be right. Read more here.

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WSJ: What Is a Reversal vs. Correction?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What is the difference between a reversal and a correction? 

It could matter a lot if you are trading.

By Wall Street’s rule of thumb, a correction is generally defined as a pullback in a market or index of 10% or more. More colloquially, it means that the underlying trend, either up or down, remains in place. In short, a correction is a temporary blip. Read more here.

WSJ: Commodity Funds Fall Short, Study Says

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sobering news for investors in specialty-commodity mutual funds: On average, they fall short on key measures, new research has found.

“These categories of funds have not been able to consistently create positive net alphas for their investors over longer time periods,” the report states. Alpha is a measure of the value fund managers add to the investment process when adjusted for risk factors such as volatility.

Read more here.

TheStreet: Mom and Pop Dumped $100 Billion From Stock Mutual Funds Starting Last April

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Mom and Pop investors are dumping stocks in a way not seen in years. It's probably a bullish sign for the major market indices, if history is anything to go by.

Every month from April through Dec. 30 last year, mutual fund investors yanked money from mutual funds focused on foreign and domestic stocks, according to the latest estimates from the Investment Company Institute.

The total outflows over that period adds to a hefty $98.1 billion, a total which is unlikely to being meaningfully changed when the final day's trading (Dec. 31) is added in. 

Read more here.

OZY: The Good-Bad-Ugly Of The Global Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Picture yourself at the racetrack, where two vehicles drive past you. One is a monster-size truck moving along at a steady and measured pace, gently accelerating. The second is a small sports car, which appears to zoom past at high speed. But, as you watch more closely, you begin to notice the car is actually slowing down compared with the truck — so much that you wonder whether it’ll go into reverse. That scene of an acceleration on the one hand and a slowdown on the other is similar to how the global economy will move this year, as far as economists can tell, and there’ll be a world of difference economically depending on where you are. Read more here.

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U.S. News: Why the Dollar Will Surge Again

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for another rally for the U.S. dollar. It's what economists call "policy divergence," and it means investors will pour their money into greenbacks. Here's how it will work and how investors could profit. 

The Federal Reserve, which is the central bank for the U.S., is expected to have policies that will increasingly diverge from those of the world's other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. 

In the simplest terms, the Fed will continue to increase the cost of borrowing money, while most of the rest of the world will either lower their short-term lending rates or leave them unchanged. Read more here.

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Forbes: How To Be The Worst Boss Possible Part 8

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Part eight of a continuing series, which outlines how you too can be an appalling manager. Read part seven here.

A big part of being a good boss is having your employees view you in high regard.

Likewise, the trick if you want to be a bad boss is to abandon any effort in that direction. When you lose the respect of your team you will ultimately head down a road that will lead to you doing the sorts of things that will put you in the running for ”worse boss possible.”

However, that can be a rather long process.

For fast results, wear a wig. 

Read more here.