WSJ: The Big Interview With Nouriel Roubini

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In which I interview Nouriel Roubini about the economy.

 

Forbes: More Brexit Lies Dispelled

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s not surprising that most people are averse to change. But some of the worries people have about Britain leaving the European Union are wildly pessimistic. They paint a world so gloomy that even fantasy writers would have a hard time selling these ideas to publishers. The level of gloom simply wouldn’t be seen as realistic enough.

For instance, in a coffee shop one morning a young Frenchman asked me (I’m English) if he’d be able to visit Britain after the so-called Brexit (Britain’s exit from the E.U.). Read more here.

Forbes: How Wall Street Really Invests

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Anyone wanting the inside scoop on how investing really works could do a whole lot worse than to read the forthcoming book by my former colleague Spencer Jakab. He’s an editor at the Wall Street Journal, but more importantly he was once a top-rated Wall Street stock analyst.

The book, Heads I Win, Tails I Win, which is scheduled to be published next week, might better have been labeled ’Confessions of a Wall Street Stockpicker.’ But knowing Jakab as I do, that really isn’t his style because such a title hints at unbridled debauchery. That’s not the image he projects, either personally or in his writing.

Read more here.

U.S. News: How to Save $10,000 in 6 Months

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Hardly a month goes by without some report or another stating that Americans aren't saving enough for retirement. It's a sad state of affairs, but it is also one that doesn't have to be inevitable, at least not if you are smart.

There are easy ways to jump-start the savings process. Here are some ideas that will generate savings of an additional $10,000 in six months. Read more here.

WSJ: Investors Expand Their Appetite for Commodities

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Desire for commodities-based funds is expanding beyond just oil and gold.

In recent months, investors also have developed a healthy appetite for funds focused on agricultural products and industrial materials. Indeed, the entire commodities complex has become a magnet for fund investors’ money, according to new research. Read more here.

Molten Gold Being Poured

Allen Drebert, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What Do Chart Gaps Mean for Investors?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some investors watch for “gaps” on daily stock-price charts as meaningful signs of future price moves. What exactly are they?

Stock charts show vertical bars with opening, high, low and closing prices. Most of the time, the price ranges overlap from one day to the next, but sometimes—say, a stock opens higher than the previous day’s trading range and stays there—there will be a gap, or empty space on the chart where no trading occurred. Technical analysts see some gaps as harbingers of a change in trends. Here are two key types:

Photo by Behnam Norouzi on Unsplash

WSJ: The Big Interview With Robert Shiller

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

A blast from the past: With Robert Shiller discussing economics.

Barron's: Getting Mileage From Gasoline Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Gasoline prices look set to trade in a sideways range over the summer, but there are profits to be made for investors willing to play the options market. The main caveat: It will require taking on significant risk by selling options rather than buying them. 

Experts say gasoline prices won’t venture far from the recent active month futures of $1.50 a gallon on the CME. Few are expecting a return to the days of $3 or $4 a gallon fuel—and there seems little chance we’ll see $1 a gallon. Read more here.

Photo by Gab Pili on Unsplash

U.S. News: After Brexit, Keep Calm and Carry On

By SIMON CONSTABLE

After two days of relative panic, global markets are beginning to return to normal following the U.K.'s surprising vote to leave the European Union, which would end four decades of membership of the free-trade area. The referendum result crushed the value of Britain's currency to lows not seen since the 1980s.

The referendum result was seen as a monumental move by the U.K. to extricate itself from the superstate, which itself was developed in an effort to end the devastating wars between the nations of Europe. How Britain's exit works out will depend on all the parties involved.

What should investors make of all this? Read more here.

TheStreet: Small-Cap Manager Bets on Steel, Concrete to Lift Returns

By SIMON CONSTABLE

At least one small-cap manager is going old school with his stock picks. Never mind a portfolio stacked with small but potentially game-changing tech-stocks. Instead, think steel girders, pre-mixed concrete and airlines. 

That's at least part of the story at Dallas-based Hodges Capital, according to Eric Marshall, the company's president and a portfolio manager of the Hodges Small Cap Fund  (HDPSX) .

Marshall says the investment philosophy centers around buying stocks as if the fund were becoming a private owner. Then it does extensive bottoms-up analysis of industries, individual stocks and the management of the companies in which it invests. 

"We want to be looking where others aren't," he said in an interview with TheStreet. "If it's on a screen" -- referring to ideas mentioned by news services and investing platforms -- "then the chances are someone has already discovered it."

Following is an edited summary of Hodge's comments here.

TheStreet: A Better Explanation of What Moves Real Estate

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What really drives house prices?

Low interest rates and loose regulation just don't seem to cut it. They only explain the short period starting around the turn of the millennium.

It could be currency. Or in the simplest terms, the real value of the dollar in terms of gold -- as in the gold bullion held by the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)  exchange-traded fund -- has a huge impact on the trend in home prices. While it doesn't explain everything, it does explain at lot. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Brexit Is The Phantom Menace

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Market reaction to Britain’s referendum result has been harsh and totally unjustified.

Before New York had even opened for trading the Japanese market had already been pummeled, down more than 7% by the close. Likewise, European markets got hammered with the German and French indices down 6.8% and 8% respectively.

Why? Investors were nervous about the future of the European Union now that Britain has said it wants to leave the superstate.

Here’s the thing though. Most of the things that we worry about simply don’t happen.  Put another way, the shark that we see isn’t the one we should worry about. Read more here.

Forbes Video: Keep Your Pets Inside for July 4, Says Mervin The Chihuahua

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Mervin the Chihuahua is back, this time with a warning. America's cutest Chihuahua says he doesn't like fireworks and neither do other cats and dogs.

Actually, he didn't say anything, because not only does he have no teeth, but be also can't 

speak. But his minder, Joey Teixeira, senior manager at the ASPCA Adoption Center, spoke for him, with the same sentiment.

It matters because Independence Day celebrations usually involve massive firework displays, which will in all likelihood alarm Merv and others like him. For that reason, keep your pets indoors and safe for the holiday. Teixeira explains in this video. 

TheStreet: Study Blows Hole In 'Free Condom' Programs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Do condoms really reduce teen pregnancies?

Not so much, according to a study recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Free or low-cost distribution seems to have the opposite effect: fertility rates rise 10%. Read more here.

Forbes Video: Be The Next Carl Icahn -- Play Trading Games

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When people first start investing they tend to make a lot of mistakes. That’s just like any other activity worth pursuing.

So what do you if you want to be the next mega successful investor, such as Carl Icahn or Warren Buffett, but don’t have any money to lose? Try using a simulated trading program where you can play at being an investor without actually needing any money.

Before the advent of new technology people would write down their trades in a note book to see how they would have performed.  But these days its even easier. It can all be done online. If you use such a service, then hopefully  you can make your mistakes before you start using real money. Nicole Slavitt, CEO of financial services firm Kapitall, explains. Read more here.

U.S. News: Individual Investors Are Dumping U.S. Stocks, Which Means It's Time to Buy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Month after month, it seems the same for small investors – they are dumping mutual funds that specialize in U.S. stocks. 

We aren't talking small amounts either. The dollar amounts are huge. But for anyone with the stomach to hold tight with their investments, the trend is actually a bullish sign. Read more here.

Forbes Video: Three Millennial Money Mistakes To Skip

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Money can be a scary topic to discuss, or even to think about. Still, it shouldn't be, because like it or not, money will be part of your life. You need to get some mastery over it.

But start with some simple things. First, I'd suggest you avoid the classic mistakes that cause people to lose money. By eliminating some bad habits you effectively improve your odds of doing better with your money.

Nicole Slavitt, CEO of financial services firm Kapitall, has some ideas. Read more here. 

Forbes Video: How YOLO Destroys Your Finance$

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you didn't already know it, YOLO is an acronym which stands for You Only Live Once. While that is certainly true, it is also associated with a spendthrift attitude, which is probably best summed up with the phrase "spend now and worry later."

The problem with following that path is multifaceted, not least of which because all debts eventually come due. Worse still, it could destroy your financial future.

Nicole Slavitt, CEO of financial services firm Kapitall, explains how to approach your money. Read more here.

Forbes Video: Why Your Pet Needs A Disaster Plan Too

By SIMON CONSTABLE

We are now entering tornado season and that means you may need to leave your home in a hurry. Not only do you need a plan of what to do and take for yourself and your family. But you also need one for your pets.

Put simply, if you need to leave, then so do your dogs and cats. And you need to take the stuff you need for them along with you.

Joel Lopez, ASPCA, director of planning & field ops, explains. Read more here. 

Forbes Video: Time To Short Consumer Staples

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When investors get nervous about the market, but still want to hold stocks, they frequently hold shares of consumer staples companies. These are the firms that produce the items that you need to buy month-in-month-out, such as shampoo, soap, and toothpaste.

Such companies aren't necessarily the fastest growing, but they are typically very predictable and often pay good dividends.

Unfortunately, that is only the case usually. It isn't that way now. In fact, such companies are now so overvalued that investors should consider shorting, or selling borrowed shares in the hope of profiting from a fall in the price, says Adam Johnson, founder and author of Bullseye Brief. Read more here.

Forbes Video: 5 Foods That Will Kill Your Pet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Who doesn't love chocolate ice-cream and raisins and a glass of wine? 

Even if you do, there are some things that you must not give to your four-legged friends, however much they may try to 'persuade' you otherwise. 

Why? It's because certain foods that will kill them.

Joey Teixeira, senior manager, ASPCA Adoption Center, and his dog Mervin, explain what you need to do. Read more here.

Forbes Video: What's Really Making Amazon A Buy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

We all think we know Amazon, but do we really.

Everyone I know has at least purchased a book from the website. That's how the business started 20 years ago. There are of course many other things available on the site now, and often at better prices than in the high street.

But that isn't where the bulk of the profits are coming from, nor is it likely to be where the earnings growth for the company will be.

Adam Johnson, founder and author of Bullseye Brief explains in what you need to know about the Amazon that you don't know in this video.

Forbes Video: If You Drill Deep There's Value In Oil Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When a stock market sector gets hammered there can be great value to be found. Take for instance the oil industry, where plunging crude prices has sent investors fleeing anything associated with the energy patch over the past year.

Investors didn't wait to find out whether or specific companies would be safe or not, they simply dumped everything.

Even though crude prices are still half what they were two years ago there are still some great value stocks to buy in the field. Adam Johnson, founder and author of Bullseye Brief explains why. Read more here.

Belizian, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes Video: Buy Gold To Protect From Fed Snafus

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The banking world is now awash with easy money as the Federal Reserve and other central banks try to revive global economic growth. Interest rates in some countries are below zero, and the Federal Reserve has been exceptionally cautious in raising the cost of borrowing inside the United States.

In short, its yet another year of economic doldrums.

Not surprisingly, that worries some people. One error from the U.S. central bank could cause serious problems for the financial system, says Stephen 'Sarge' Guilfoyle, managing director at Deep Value Execution Services NYSE. Read more here.

Photo by Will Creswick on Unsplash

U.S. News: What 'Lower for Longer' Means for Investments

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The buzz on Wall Street these past few weeks has been the phrase "lower for longer."

When investors say that, they are talking about the Federal Reserve and its likely policy on short-term interest rates. The Fed is expected to keep the cost of borrowing money lower for longer than was previously expected.

Depending on who you ask, this outlook may have consequences for your investments. Read more here.

TheStreet: Financial Fun in the Sun: 5 Industry-Related Beach Thrillers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Summer is upon us, and for many people, that means it's time to bask in the seaside sun with a good book.

Your choices aren't limited to potboiler or textbook, either: What if there were books that offered a little of both? 

If you like the idea, you're in luck: Here are five such reads worth considering. Better still, because none are new, you should be able to get them for around the price of a latte, and that may even include postage.  Read more here.

Photo by Sharon McCutcheon on Unsplash

TheStreet: Investors Far Gloomier Than Facts Justify

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Apparently we are a bunch of scaredy cats when it comes to the stock market.

Investor expectations of another 1987-style crash aren't just a little bit off. They are way too pessimistic when compared with reality of historical events. And those concerns are exacerbated by news reports of poor market performance, according to a recent study. Read more here.

U.S. News: Emerging Markets Aren't Submerging Any More

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Last year, emerging markets became submerging markets as the nosedive in the commodities complex hit resource-based economies hard.

But lately, at least part of the resources sector seems to be showing signs of life. Does that mean the emerging market world is out of the woods? The answer is it very much depends on the economy in question. Read more here.

Photo by Jason Blackeye on Unsplash

Forbes Video: Have Emerging Markets Stopped Submerging?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Over the past few years the world of emerging markets (EM) has mostly been world of hurt in the wake of the commodity market meltdown.

The question is whether that decline, which adversely affected many resource heavy economies, is over. Or put another way, if it's true that "What goes up must come down," then can we rely on the reverse: "what goes down may rebound?"

The idea that it should work both ways is based on something called "mean reversion" in investing returns. If one investing sector, or asset class, has over performed for a while, we can expect that eventually it will underperform. Likewise, those sectors that underperform, like EM, shall eventually outperform. That's the idea anyway.

Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners explains his thoughts in this video.

WSJ: The CEO at the Center of a Controversial 1993 Commodity Hedge

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If there is one thing Heinz Schimmelbusch has experience with, it’s commodity hedging and risk management. From 1989 to 1993, he was chief executive of German-based industrial conglomerate Metallgesellschaft. Read more here.

WSJ: A Bold Approach in Commodities Paid Off

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The chief executive officer of Amsterdam materials company AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV, Heinz Schimmelbusch, once at the center of a controversial derivatives trade that cost a staggering $1.3 billion (see related article), is back and bucking commodities-market trends.

While other companies have suffered stock drops and cut dividends, AMG shares have soared (up 33.5% in 2015) and the firm paid its first dividend last year. Shares of rivals such as Rio Tinto PLC, Alcoa Inc. and Glencore PLC, meanwhile, were hammered. Read more here.

WSJ: Why Currency Wars Are So Destructive

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When economies start to flag, governments will occasionally start what is known as a currency war. It is important that investors understand what the term means and why it can be so destructive to the countries involved.

Such conflicts start when one country decides to lower the value of its currency to increase its exports. Exports become cheaper for foreign buyers whose currency doesn’t deflate. Read more here.

Paasikivi, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes Video: Steer Clear Of U.S. Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Since the early part of 2009 U.S. stocks have rallied, and that success may lead some investors to cast away their concerns about the market and fully invest. While staying invested over a long period of time is usually a good thing, buying at the top and selling at the bottom are often exactly what small investors do, very much to their detriment.

Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, says there may be better alternatives to U.S. stocks. He explains his thoughts in this video.

One of the things to consider for any investor is to maintain a balanced portfolio of domestic and foreign stocks as well as fixed income, alternative assets and a small amount of cash.

Forbes Video: How 'Organic Meat' Might Really Mean Something Soon

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What does ‘organic meat’ really mean? It might give you a warm glow to buy such food at the grocery, but it's not really well defined. That is something that the ASPCA have been working on changing.

Specifically, the organization, which has a long history of promoting animal welfare, wants more standards introduced which define how animals being bred for food are raised and treated. Ultimately the definition will be determined in the United States by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

I recently spoke with Daisy Freund, ASPCA Director of Farm Animal Welfare, who explains her thoughts on what changes may be coming in this video.

Forbes Video: Why Investors Should Be Choosy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There are times when just buying a broad basket of stocks is enough for many investors. But there are times, like now, when investors need to be a bit picky. As many observers have noted the overall market is looking a bit highly priced.

Does that mean you should avoid the market? Probably not. Stocks have a good long term track record of beating inflation. They have done far better than cash and have outperformed bonds over periods of many decades.

Instead, investors should look carefully at which stocks to buy, says Adam Johnson, founder and author of the Bullseye Brief newsletter. It's worth knowing  his depth of knowledge is very impressive and based on practical investing experience, which is why it's really worth listening to what he says.

He explains his thoughts on what and how you should invest in this video.

Forbes Video: Learn This Mind Trick For Better Investing

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When you start learning to invest, your mind works against you in ways you might not expect. For instance, when you look at the performance of an asset class recent activity will weigh more heavily on your mind.

So if stocks have done badly in the recent past then its more likely that you'll be persuaded that stocks are a losing bet. It works vice versa as well.

That wouldn't matter if investors, especially newbies, didn't take action based on that inherent bias. Unfortunately, they do. When stocks do well, small investors tend to pile in at exactly the wrong moment. When stocks do badly they tend to cash in their positions at precisely the wrong moment as well.

Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, says understanding this bias is crucial to smart investing. He explains his thoughts in this video.

Forbes: Is GDP Outmoded? Maybe, Maybe Not

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s sometimes hard to remember that economics is a young discipline, especially when it’s compared to other areas of study such as philosophy and mathematics. Economics really only got going when Scottish philosopher Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations in 1776. It’s still a classic.

From then until the first half of the twentieth century there remained no accepted measure of economic output that could easily compare the wealth that different countries were producing with even a modicum of accuracy.

Then came Gross Domestic Product or GDP. That was the invention that Ehsan Masood refers to in his book The Great Invention which is scheduled to be published this month. Indeed, it was a great invention, but as Masood points out in some detail, it wasn’t perfect and also it remains imperfect.

Read more here.

Forbes Video: Why I'm Worried About U.S. Stocks, Catalano

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The trick with investing is always to buy assets that are undervalued and then patiently wait until their true value is appreciated by other investors. You buy low and then sell high. That’s the theory, anyway.

The question at the moment for many small investors is whether to jump headlong into stocks now that the economy is looking at least somewhat steadier. Maybe not, says Vinny Catalano, global investment strategist at Blue Marble Research.

He thinks that U.S. stocks look expensive by a number of different measures. Those measures include looking at the ratio of the stock prices to the earnings of the companies, as well as similar valuation methods. Catalan explains himself in this video. Watch, listen, and learn here.

U.S. News: What You Need to Know About Investing in Currency-Hedged ETFs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Currencies that just won't stay still are causing havoc for investors who ventured to buy foreign stocks and bonds.

It's not a new problem, but over the past few years there has been a surge in products designed to eliminate that risk – so-called currency-hedged exchange-traded funds. 

But should you consider them as part of your portfolio? Read more here.

TheStreet: Why Stocks Did Better Than You Think Last Year

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Should investors have been disappointed by last year's flat stock market?

Probably not, because indexes don't measure the true changes in your wealth. And there's a bigger lesson for anyone saving for retirement. Read more here.

Forbes Video: Time To Hydrate Your Portfolio With Water Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Without water we can’t live. That should be clear to anyone. The unfortunate thing is that water resources are becoming increasingly scarce.

There is an upside though. Entrepreneurs are already well aware of the problem and are plowing resources into the field. It means there will be huge spending in the years to come on things like dam building and utilities, says Vinny Catalano, global investment strategist at Blue Marble Research. He explains his thoughts in this video.

Forbes: Do We Need The Fed? Maybe Not, But We Need Free Markets

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Reason Foundation scholar, and economics journalist, John Tamny has written a new book titled Who Needs the Fed? If you believe Tamny and what he’s written, then the answer is clearly, not us.

His book, published earlier this month, is about much more than the Federal Reserve,the central bank of the United States. It’s about sound economic policy. It’s about what works in economics, and what doesn’t work.

Read more here.

Forbes Video: Beat The S&P 500 By 2-To-1

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Making money in the market is often hampered by the reality that taxes need to be paid on the gains. But what if you could let your money grow over a long period of time and only then pay your taxes? There is a way to do that and to beat the market at the same time. It's a trick that can beat the broad market, as measured by the S&P 500, by a factor of two-to-one, says Adam Johnson, founder of Bullseye Brief newsletter in this recent video.

Forbes Video: What Are Negative Interest Rates And Should You Worry About Them?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In some places outside the U.S., the cost of borrowing money has dipped below zero. It's a strange concept and basically means that money kept in a bank deposit would actually shrink instead of grow.

One question that many people wonder about is whether the negative rate phenomenon will be coming to the United States. It would be decision made by the Federal Reserve and one that would also have dramatic impact on the U.S. economy.

To find out what's going on I spoke with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at professional services firm RSM who explains what it means and whether America will follow suit. Watch, listen, and learn here.

Forbes Video: Why The Oil Bear Is Banished!

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Prices for crude oil have had a brutal couple of years falling from around $100 in mid 2014 to a low of $26 this past February. They have since rebounded to the $40s. The question is simple: is the bear market over?

It is a question that matters for the credit market, because banks lent heavily to the oil patch. It is also important for stocks in general because the oil companies have seen profits collapse, hurting market earnings ratios.

The health of earnings and the health of banks are vital to a robust stock market. So, if the rout for oil is over then this could be a bottom for stocks in general.

Adam Johnson, founder of Bullseye Brief, explains why he thinks the recent low price for crude could signal that the energy bear market is over. He also gives his thoughts on why oil is a better bet than natural gas. Watch, listen, and learn here.

Forbes Video: How The Government Is Killing Wall St. Innovation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Since the big banks were bailed out by the U.S. government in 2009 regulators have kept one thing in mind: Never again. If nothing else happens, they don’t want to see a repeat of the subprime meltdown and the need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars stabilizing institutions that are deemed to big to let fail.

That fear of risk by the regulators means that Wall Street is no longer the center of innovation it once was. Or in other words, if you want creativity in your job, anywhere else might be better than Wall Street. That may explain why the brightest and the best are headed out to San Francisco and other technology hubs.

Watch, listen and learn from Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at professional services firm RSM.

Photo by Diego PH on Unsplash

U.S. News: How the Oil and Credit Markets Became Linked

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Markets aren't like Las Vegas. What happens in one market doesn't stay there for long. The latest poster children for the ripple effect are energy markets and credit markets.

Recently, movements in the volatile oil futures market had a direct and immediate impact on the bond market. Here's what happened, why, and how it affects your investments. Read more here.

Oil Tanker

Photo by Shaah Shahidh on Unsplash