Forbes: Another Worry For Investors In Turkey -- A NATO Split

By SIMON CONSTABLE

As if a currency crisis alone wasn't enough, now investors in Turkey could have another thing to worry over.

The country could split from NATO as soon as the end of the year, according to a recent report. Read more here.

Forbes: Don't Blame Trump for Turkey's Woes

By SIMON CONSTABLE

These past two days it would have been easy to get the impression that U.S. President Donald Trump is responsible for the currency crisis in Turkey.

Unfortunately, for Turkey, Trump is not the source of all their economic woes.

Overwhelmingly, the real problems are insane economic policies implemented under the rule of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Read more here.

Barron's: Time to Buy the British Pound?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Paranoia over Brexit, the future of the British economy without Europe, has pummeled the British pound lately, taking it to levels not seen since last year.

However, the currency situation may not reflect the real strength in the British economy nor the historically uncanny ability of the European Union to reach eleventh-hour deals, and hat means there may be profits to be had for investors. Read more here.

MonkeyStolen234, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: Gasoline Prices Expected to Level Off This Fall

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The end of the U.S.’s summer driving season will remove some of the upward pressure on gas prices, though they won’t stray too far from recent levels through the fall. Read more here.

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WSJ: What Are Catalysts?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

You may hear Wall Street analysts opining about “catalysts.” Usually, they are referring to events or revelations that could spark a significant movement in the price of a security.

Consider two recent reports: “Top Picks—25 Stocks with Catalysts,” from Swiss banking firm UBS , UBS 0.25% and “Market Moving Catalysts,” from the Bullseye Brief investment newsletter. What can you expect when reading such reports? Read more here.

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WSJ: What's My Active Share?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors recently gained access to more information about how their actively managed mutual funds are managed. Now they need to figure out how to use it. Read more here.

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Barron's: El Nino Modoki Could Jolt Coffee Market

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s time to drop a shot or two of espresso into your portfolio.

After years of sliding, coffee prices look set to jump due to a dry weather system that could stunt next year's crop. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Responding to Europe's Record Heat Wave

The headlines tell it all: Europe's getting baked. July’s unprecedented wildfires in Sweden’s far north have forced town evacuations. Similarly, on the beaches near Athens, Greece, infernos have killed dozens. Britain, the land where rain rarely stops, is afflicted by drought. One utility has even instituted a hosepipe ban.

From the edge of the Arctic tundra down to the shores of the Mediterranean, extreme dry heat is threatening Europe with temperatures at or near the highest on record. The unusual spate of natural disasters has government responders and planners overloaded, but equally challenging are private sector's readiness, and the leadership required there as well. Read more here.

Forbes: Brexit May Slow Britain's Innovation

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Britain's exit from the European Union may risk the U.K. losing that most valuable of all things: Innovation. At least that's according to one scholar.

It could be a blow to the country's three leading exports, which are defense/aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. Read more here.

Forbes: Why A Surging Dollar Will Crush Emerging Markets

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The surge in the dollar isn't over yet, and that means bad news for investors in emerging markets.

Beginning in late January the dollar index against major currencies has so far added more than 7% in value, according to government data. The move has come as the U.S. economy has accelerated while growth much of the developed world has remained sluggish. Read more here.

Barron's: Gold Could Be in a Prolonged Tailspin

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Don’t expect gold prices to recover anytime soon, because the strength of the U.S. dollar will keep a lid on any rally at the very least and could push prices for the metal down further. Read more here.

Forbes: Did The Fed Break The "Yield Curve Indicator?"

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A once-reliable indicator of future recessions may be broken.

The metric in question is the so-called treasury yield-curve which measures the difference in the cost of the government borrowing for two years and the cost of the government borrowing for 10 years.

In the past, when the 2-year interest rate on U.S. Treasuries was higher than the 10-year rate on U.s. Treasuries, then we could reliably expect a recession in short order.

Not so much anymore, because recent actions by the Federal Reserve may have broken the indicator, according to one analyst. Read more here.

PJ Media: How GMOs or 'Frankenfoods' Help Reduce World Poverty

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Could so-called “Frankenfoods” be a solution to global poverty?

The answer is yes, according to a new study that shows increased use of genetically modified (GM) crops (those that have higher yields than non-modified plants) boosted the economics of some of the world’s poorest countries. The derogatory term Frankenfoods likens engineered plants, aka GM crops, to the fictional lab-made monster of Dr. Frankenstein, made famous in many movies.

However, the findings from the research also show the GM crops aren't a horror show at all. They provide yet more evidence of how capitalism is far better at tackling economic privation than any attempts at socialist-style wealth redistribution. Ironically, it could turn the producers of genetically modified (GM) crops and activists into unlikely partners. Read more here.

Forbes: Economics Disaster Won't Prompt Iran Regime Change

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's some bad news for Iranians who are now suffering the wealth-withering effects of hyperinflation and mass unemployment.

Just because Iran's beleaguered economy is a mess doesn't mean that the end is in sight for the theocratic regime that has ruled the country since 1979.

History shows that regimes that send their countries into economic armageddon can continue on for years without being ousted. Read more here.

Forbes: Trump's Economy Still Lags That Of Clinton And Bush

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When the first read on second-quarter U.S. GDP data gets released Friday, its expected to be good enough to grab some big headlines.

But no one is expecting the growth to be anywhere near as good as things got in the years under President Bill Clinton or those of President George W Bush. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Globalization Ain't Dead Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Claims that the era of free trade is on its last legs are much exaggerated.

It is nowhere near dead. Not by a long shot.

Assurances that the U.S. has embarked on a trade war that will collapse the world economy similarly grasp at a phantom menace.

Who knows for sure why people say such things, but we can make educated guesses.

A couple of probable reasons stand out as feasible. First, it may be because such scaremongers are too focused on the recent spats between the U.S. and China, plus the U.S. and the European Union. Alternatively, it could be that they aren’t aware of how the current tariffs fit into the move towards increasingly freer trade over the last two centuries. Read more here.

Forbes: Could Small Caps Help Investors Beat A Trade War?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Talk of a trade war has been increasingly ubiquitous for the past few months, whether it be between the U.S. and either China or the U.S. and the European Union.

But that hasn't stopped investors piling into U.S. assets including greenbacks and stocks.

Read more here.

PJ Media: Rising Energy Prices Tells Us That the World Will Shun Dealing with Iran

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

The crude oil market has a blunt message for the world.

U.S. sanctions on Iran will bite hard and so remove a chunk of crude oil supply from the global market. That’s why prices for this energy have rallied so much lately.

The price for light sweet crude has rallied almost 10 percent over the past few weeks to $73.63 a barrel recently from $67.25 at the beginning of May, according to data from Bloomberg.

In early May the Trump administration signaled an end to U.S. participation in the so-called Iran nuclear deal and would, therefore, begin to impose sanctions on the country. The Obama-era agreement had allowed Iran to trade oil and other goods in exchange for not developing nuclear weapons. Read more here.

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Korn Ferry: Brexit Break-Ups

In any negotiation, it’s assumed that each side has a common objective. But when it comes to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, that may not be the case.

Over the weekend Prime Minister Theresa May unveiled her Brexit plan. But by Monday two pro-Brexit members of May’s Cabinet had quit in protest. Other ministers may follow suit, and some experts are wondering whether May herself will leave soon. Read more here.

WSJ: Bottom-Up vs. Top-down

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes you’ll see investment research that discusses so-called top-down and bottom-up estimates of how much money the companies in the S&P 500 index will earn overall.

The differences can sometimes be meaningful. Read more here.

Rob Young from United Kingdom, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What's Driving the Bank Stocks?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Bank stocks in recent years have appreciated along with a rise in long-term interest rates, outperforming the broader market over much of that time. Can investors count on this trend continuing, as long as the 10-year yield is rising?

Not necessarily, analysts say, pointing out that long-term interest rates are just one of several factors that drive bank profitability. Read more here.

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PJ Media: How Artificial Intelligence Can Lead to Better Pay for Human Workers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

More than a few people have their knickers in a twist over artificial intelligence (AI). But they shouldn’t. The technology will make us all richer.

Some folks fear AI to the point where they get paralyzed, whereas the reality is that this new technology will augur consistent pay raises. Here’s the skinny on a situation that shouldn’t be at all terrifying, but is. Read more here.

Forbes: Free Government Money For All? Some People See A Need For It

BY SIMON CONSTABLE

This last decade there's been a growing concern that the capitalist system isn't working enough for all members of society. Income inequality, job insecurity, the working poor, etc. have all been pointed to as problems that need solving, at least by some people.

Now step forward Universal Basic Income (UBI,) a form of standard government-funded stipend that citizens would receive each month if the idea were ever realized on a broad scale. Its proponents think it might solve the perceived ills of our system.

It is also the topic of a soon-to-be-published book titled "Give People Money: How A Universal Basic Income Would End Poverty, Revolutionize Work, And Remake The World," which was written by journalist Annie Lowrey. Read more here.

Forbes: Washington's Latest Plan To Waste Your Tax Dollars

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's wasteful, and then there's government wasteful.

You can guess which one is worse.

Just in case you didn't already know, earlier this month there was a stark reminder of our need to be ever vigilant against government excess. This time, the offending item was in the latest defense spending bill and includes the plan to ship coal to Germany all the way from the U.S., all on the taxpayer dime. Read more here.

P.J. Media: How to Make ObamaCare Pay

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It looks like some enterprising individuals have found a way to make the Affordable Care Act (ACA) more affordable -- at least for themselves.

A new study reveals how they did it, and comes just in time to plan for next year when yet another round of absurdly hefty hikes in insurance premiums are already in the offing.

Read more here.

Forbes: Still Going Strong -- How One Startup Bucked The Financial Crisis And Thrived

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's something of a maxim on Wall Street that the best trades are often those which are hardest to make. For instance, when the price of a stock has dropped like a stone, there is generally a lingering doubt that buying the stock is the right thing to do. Thoughts whirl around all based on one question: What does everyone else know that I don't?

Imagine then how nerve-wracking it must have been to start a new financial company in 2008, the very depths of the financial crisis. That was a time when waking from even a few hours sleep might bring news of yet another company's demise. It was a period when even the storied firms of Wall Street, such as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, were not immune from financial disaster. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Will Women Reign in Spain?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Of all countries, Spain is probably not viewed as the forefront of gender equality—think bullfighting and the macho culture of old there, for example. But score one for a country that has been working to change perceptions: Recently, the country’s new prime minister appointed 11 out of the 17 top ministerial roles to women, the first such majority-women cabinet in the country’s history. Read more here.

John Batchelor Radio Show: Socialism Fails

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: 5 Lessons From Tesla's Recent Rollercoaster Ride

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Tesla has had a bad few months, that's for sure.

But any student of business should learn from what's happened. And that's where there are plenty of lessons.

Here's what you need to know.

Forbes: 5 Reasons The Drop In Gold Prices Shouldn't Worry Investors

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Gold prices took a hit at the end of last week, and it has some observers concerned.

But the truth is it shouldn't be worrying. Here's what you need to know.

Barron's: Why You Should Buy Europe's Beaten Down Banks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Italian politics is knotty. But lately, it has become as twisted as a bowl of spaghetti bolognese, providing a chance to buy beaten-down European banking shares that will likely jump when the clouds over the sector evaporate. Read more here.

PJ Media: Why Bernie Sanders' Goal of More Unions Won't Work

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said last month that he wants to foster more unions, but the very things that allow organized labor to increase membership are often also the things that cause their destruction.

At least that’s the way new research points. Read more here.

Forbes: Venezuela's Latest Desperate Plan

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Venezuela just keeps on delivering new economic absurdities.

The country, which has the largest oil reserves in the world, is now considering the idea of importing the stuff. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Raises Have Arrived…In the Public Sector

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Ancient prophets once wrote that seven years of feasts would get followed by seven years of famine. These stories pushed the idea that neither good nor bad times last forever. But now reality is mimicking the parables.

For the last seven years, the one million-plus workers in the National Health Service, the U.K.’s state-funded health system, have received just a 1% raise annually. But this month the U.K. government agreed to raise wages 6.5% over the next three years, more than doubling the recent annual increases. Read more here.

Forbes: A Deep Look Inside The Gig Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

How good or bad is the so-called gig economy compared to holding a permanent staff role? It all depends who you ask.

Sarah Kessler, author of Gigged: The End of the Job and the Future of Work, spoke with more than a few people about the matter and discusses it at length in her book which is scheduled for publication June 12. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: In Spain, Italy-- Surviving a Void

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It isn’t something one would expect to see, two major European nations without leaders at the same time. But that’s where Italy and Spain found themselves last week—and where a surprising number of companies find themselves as well. 

For those who missed the headlines, Italy went three months without a majority government, until two major parties finally agreed last Friday on a new prime minister. Meanwhile, a few hundred miles west, Spain’s government collapsed after the prime minister was unseated in a no-confidence vote, and experts wonder how long the new government will last. But as unnerving as this can be, leadership vacuums are of course not limited to politics. Indeed, from abrupt CEO departures to boardroom succession battles, such voids are becoming more common and troubling. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: Jeremy Corbyn Preaches

By SIMON CONSTABLE

P.J. Media: Numbers Don't Bear Out Corbyn's Claims on 'Soaring Inequality'

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Has Britain’s Jeremy Corbyn become king of the political fibbers? Maybe so.

The ultra-leftist leader of the country’s Labour Party won’t let up from pushing the idea that the divide between those on high incomes and the rest of the population is only getting worse.

The problem is that the pontificating politician hasn’t checked the facts. Worse still, he fails to mention how much better off even the poorest have become these past few decades. Read more here.

Parliament

Photo by Massimiliano Morosinotto on Unsplash

WSJ: What Is CCAR?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Over the next few weeks, the abbreviation CCAR, which stands for Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, is likely to crop up in news articles and online posts. It matters for anyone who follows the U.S. banking industry. Read more here.

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WSJ: Emerging Markets Have a Dollar Problem

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Emerging-markets stocks have been pummeled lately, and the strength of the dollar gets much of the blame.

“The dollar remains the single most important consideration for EM [emerging-markets] finances,” says a report from debt-ratings company Fitch. In general, a stronger dollar tends to mean lower stock prices in emerging markets. Read more here.

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Barrons: Tariffs Won’t Dent Steelmakers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In boxing it’s considered unsporting to kick your opponent when he’s down. Apparently, not so in international trade.

Soon after last week’s Italian-inspired market wobbles, President Trump decided to pile on. As of Friday, imports of European-made steel and aluminum are subject to tariffs of 25% and 10% respectively. Read more here.

Steel tubing

Photo by Christophe Dion on Unsplash

Middle East Eye: Good as gold -- Turkey uses bullion to stabilise its economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Turkey’s economy has been in a tailspin with an inflationary currency, but the country is using something rare to help stabilise itself: gold.

In late 2011, Turkey started to allow commercial banks to use gold instead of the Turkish lira for their required deposits at the central bank. These deposits are known as reserve requirements and help ensure that the banks are capitalised. Read more here.

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WSJ: For Scientists Seeking Research Backing, Crowdfunding May Be the Answer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Scientists struggling to find funding for research may have a new source of money: crowdfunding.

That’s the conclusion of a new study, which suggests that scientists who lack extensive published research may be better off gathering many modest contributions instead of pursuing large financial grants from traditional sources. Read more here.

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P.J. Media: Despite Brexit Detractors, Signs of Strength in Britain’s Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Sometimes when you look at the facts, it just doesn’t jibe with the commentary from the chattering classes.

Take, for instance, the UK economy. The stock market recently hit a record, the same for investment, and unemployment is at a 42-year low. While that wouldn’t sound too shabby to most people, it does to some folks. Read more here.

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Briefings Magazine: When a Tornado Can Save the Day

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A few years ago, a major Connecticut-based manufacturer was desperately trying to fix the profitability of one of its business units. Executives’ initial thoughts were that the business needed some good old-fashioned cost cutting, a bit of slash and burn if you like. But to be sure, they asked for some expert help in the form of Yael Grushka-Cockayne, professor of quantitative analysis at University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. She got to work by analyzing the key variables—and came to a different conclusion. It wasn’t cost cutting. “The focus needed to be on sales growth,” she says.

But how do you convince a management stuck on one idea? Enter the tornado chart. This remarkably simple diagram—easy to produce—would be the game changer here, with bar lines proving the impact of boosting profits with more production. The wider the bar at the top, the bigger the impact—and, yes, it resembles the shape of a tornado. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: The Air France Challenge

It sounds like a scene from the torrid days of airline deregulation that made so many headlines in the 1980s: Unhappy unions, with strikes threatening to bring an iconic airline company to a near-standstill. A CEO who resigns. And in the middle of all this? Travelers scrambling to figure out the best way to secure their next vacation.

The carrier in this case is Air France, and while its challenges are not new, the partially state-owned airlines got an important piece of news recently from French president Emmanuel Macron. His message: You are on your own. Read more here.

Forbes: Why China's Yuan Is No Imminent Threat To The Dollar

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some bad ideas just won't die. It seems to matter not that many are silly beyond logic.

When it comes to money matters, a big one stands out as ridiculous. That is the recurrent meme that China will somehow imminently oust the U.S. dollar from its role as by far the world's most important currency.

The problem is that the trope doesn't reflect the reality of the world in which we are living. Read more here.

Forbes: How U.S. Sanctions On Iran Could Boost Gold Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Here's some good news for the gold bugs.

The recently announced U.S. sanctions on Iran will likely give a boost to prices for the yellow metal.

At least that's according to one analyst who has studied the bullion market for decades. Read more here.

Forbes: Did Witchcraft Win Trump The Election?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What's really going on inside "Team Trump?"

It's a question that some authors have tried to answer, including Michael Wolff. More will no doubt try again.

But few would even have thought to venture the same place as did author Gary Lachman: The Occult.

The author was a founding member of the rock band Blondie. Since then, he's been busy writing a slew of books, the latest of which is titled "Dark Star Rising: Magick and Power in the Age of Trump," set to be published late May. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Oil Prices Will Head Even Higher

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Get ready for another surge in crude oil prices.

The cost of a barrel of crude oil is now at its highest level since 2014, but there will likely be another jump in the coming weeks. Primary among the reasons is that despite all the screeching, European companies will not be likely to get a waiver from soon-to-be-imposed U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Here's the skinny: