TheStreet: Why The Pain Isn't Over Yet for Emerging Markets

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Emerging markets took a beating last year, and despite a recent respite, the pain likely isn't over. 

Here's what you need to know.

Barron's: Looking to Reverse Its Slide, Austrian iPhone Supplier Pushes Beyond Apple

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Austria’s AMS was one of many Apple suppliers hit by soft iPhone sales last year. The company, once known as austriamicrosystems, produces 3-D sensors and laser technologies used in smartphones.

The shares (ticker: AMS.Switzerland) have dropped 74% over the past year versus gains of 3.7% for the S&P 500, according to Morningstar data. Both figures include dividends. Read more here.

Briefings Magazine: A New Order of Chaos

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It all seems like it’s unraveling at once. Talk to leaders in Berlin, Bangalore, Boston, or anywhere else trying to do business and the conversation quickly comes around to how there’s so much … disorder. Troubles in Turkey, a Middle East morass, trade disputes, unpredictable leaders, populist protests—it’s all happening at once. It’s making people pine for the halcyon days of 2016, when there was only a US presidential election and a Brexit referendum that caused potential upheaval. Read more here.

xkcd, CC BY 2.5, via Wikimedia Commons

TheStreet: 3 Reasons to Buy Gold

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Wobbly stock prices are sending many panicked people running scared for gold, sending prices for the yellow metal soaring. Savvy investors should follow suit.

The World Gold Council recently reported that investors sank $3.1 billion into gold-backed exchange-traded funds for the second month in a row during January. That's the fourth consecutive month of net inflows for gold ETFs, with the overwhelming majority of the cash coming from North America over the period. Read more here.

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Barron's: An Italian Tire Maker With a High-Performance Stock

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Pirelli could provide investors with a smooth ride higher. 

The stock (ticker: PIRC.Italy) looks set to rise in the next 12 months, propelled by rising earnings as the company shifts to higher margin products and benefits from the increased demand for performance tires. In addition to a roughly 20% gain, a rising dividend should add 4.5% next year for a total return of about 25%. Read more here.

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WSJ: Two Trendy Cash Phrases

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A shift in the markets means investors may hear the following phrases used more often this year: The first is “Cash as a Reasonable Alternative,” and the second is the acronym CITA, which stands for “Cash Is the Alternative.” Read more here.

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Barron's: Taylor Wimpey -- A U.K. Housing Stock With a Big Dividend

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Shares of British home builder Taylor Wimpey could provide a pretty solid foundation for a portfolio. The shares offer a double-digit dividend yield, the chance of capital appreciation, and will be helped by the government’s favorable homeownership policy. “The market is pricing in an overly bearish outcome for the new housing market,” says Sam Cullen, a senior analyst at European broker Berenberg. “The market for newly constructed housing is significantly outperforming that of the existing home market.” Read more here.

Forbes: A Replay Of 1972 Could Boost U.S. Grain Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

U.S. agricultural markets could be about to get a boost.

The matter hinges in part with the on-going, and acrimonious, trade negotiations between the Trump administration and China.

However, there's a good chance that the whole thing ends well and that presents an opportunity for traders to benefit from a possible rally in grain prices. Read more here.

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Forbes: The Unintended Consequences Of Central Bank Policies -- Part 2 of 2

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While many pundits seem to heap praise on the policies that central bank policies introduced after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, their actions came with unintended consequences. Sometimes they were the exact opposite of the outcomes desired. Read more here.

Forbes: The Unintended Consequences Of Central Bank Policies -- Part 1 of 2

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Central bank efforts to save the world economy after the 2007-2009 financial crisis were much lauded by pundits these past few years. But now researchers are digging up evidence that some of their actions resulted in significant unintended consequences. Sometimes the results were the opposite of those desired by the policymakers. Read more here.

Forbes: How Brexit Made British Stocks A Steal

By SIMON CONSTABLE

British stocks are now a steal, and you can thank Brexit for that.

That's why it might make sense for investors to consider investing in the island nation's market. Read more here.

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Forbes: What You Need To Know About Oil Prices And Venezuela's Drama

By SIMON CONSTABLE

What happens next in Venezuela's political drama could have a profound impact on oil prices. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: Bleak Economic Outlook for Mid East in 2019

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Falling oil output together with restrained government spending looks set to blight some key economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the coming year, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman expected to be particularly hard hit.

However, analysts say whether the economic slowdown results in more political instability across the region will depend on how governments choose to react. Read more here.

Forbes: Reasons To Start Betting On Gold Miners

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Changes in the gold mining industry should be good for investors in the sector. It's about time too. Read more here.

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Barron's: Never Mind Brexit. This U.K. Retailer Is a Buy.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While many retailers are getting shredded on Main Street, Britain’s WH Smith is bucking the trend by pursuing growth globally, catering to travelers in airports and railway stations. “Profits are organically moving away from the High Street to the travel side,” Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at United Kingdom financial-services firm Hargreaves Lansdown, told Barron’s. “In an airport, you’re a captive audience for retailers.” Read more here.

Korn Ferry: The Economic Slowdown Is Already Here

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The International Monetary Fund delivered a message this week few business leaders ever want to hear.

The IMF cut its forecast for world economic growth for 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%. While only a small change on a percentage basis, it could still mean nearly $1.8 trillion less economic output, if the IMF’s forecast is accurate. Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s chairwoman, attributed the revision to the slowing Chinese economy, the China-U.S. trade war, and Brexit. Read more here.

Barron's: Battered British Defense Stock Will Mount New Charge

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The United Kingdom-based defense company BAE Systems has been taking flak of late. The stock has dropped because of the company’s Saudi Arabian ties and now presents an opportunity for investors to buy cheap shares with good prospects for capital gains and dividend growth.

“BAE has an attractive valuation relative to the sector and market,” according to a recent report from European bank Berenberg. “Underlying cash generation is set to steadily improve from 2019 estimates, driven by growth in profits,” the firm noted. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Brexit -- Dealing With Dramatic Defeat

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s defeat, and then there’s crushing defeat. 

UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered the latter Tuesday evening after losing a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal 432 to 202. The United Kingdom’s national broadcasting organization BBC calls it “the largest defeat for a sitting government in history.” May now must face a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons prompted by the leader of Britain’s opposition party, Jeremy Corbyn. Read more here.

Forbes: Could A Cryptocurrency Service Help Save Venezuela?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Venezuela's government can't seem to do anything right these days, so some enterprising folks have stepped forward to help the inflation-ravaged country.

Steve Hanke, hyperinflation expert, and professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University has teamed up with AirTM, a Mexico City-based blockchain-powered currency platform. Their goal is to get financial aid to beleaguered Venezuelans and they've named the  project "AirdropVenezuela." Read more here.

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Barron's: A Top UK Income Investment Play

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Brexit-related clouds have produced another opportunity for investors: Legal & General.

L&G (tickers: LGEN.UK and LGGNF), which specializes in general (nonlife) insurance, asset management, and mortgages, offers a fat dividend yield at a compelling valuation. “It’s a buy for us,” says Ian Forrest, an analyst at United Kingdom stockbroker The Share Centre. “The yield is the most attractive thing. When you look at the forecasts for the company, it suggests dividends are likely to rise.” Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Gross Output and Intermediate Inputs?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Big changes are happening at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

It means you’ll be hearing more about two economic metrics: gross output and intermediate inputs. The two are related, but for economists, the latter has a meaningful use as an indicator of future economic activity. The BEA has been stepping up the speed at which it releases data on the metrics. Read more here.

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Barron's: Why Beef Prices Are Primed to Sizzle

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A little beef could put some muscle in your portfolio.

African swine flu, possibly brutal winter weather, and falling beef production could propel prices for cattle futures more than 15% higher over the next two quarters or so.

“It’s a perfect situation for a pretty wild price move higher,” Shawn Hackett, CEO of Hackett Financial Advisors told Barron's. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: The Brexit Clock Keeps Ticking

By SIMON CONSTABLE

With fewer than 100 days before the March 29 Brexit deadline, it is still as clear as mud how the United Kingdom will leave the European Union, or if it will even leave at all.

Between proposed deals quickly scuttled, votes of no confidence against UK Prime Minister Theresa May, and talks of another Brexit referendum, it’s hard for anyone to figure out what will happen. Whatever the outcome, experts say UK businesses need to review how their company interacts with the EU (and vice versa) and what the various Brexit outcomes would mean to them. Read more here.

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Forbes: Why Migrants Risk Death To Reach The UK -- It’s The Economy

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Britain is experiencing the best of times and the worst of times.

What you conclude will likely depend on which narrative you believe. There’s the story from financiers who bet with other peoples money, and then there’s the one from migrants who are willing to gamble with their lives.

Given the stakes involved, I’d say the latter is probably a better indicator that Britain’s economy is not lacking any mojo. The former probably says more about bankers than anything. Read more here.

Barron's: Platinum Prices Are Poised for a Pop

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Battered stock investors should put a bar or two of platinum in their portfolio. Prices for the metal, which are used primarily in automobile catalytic converters, looks ready to bounce more than 40% in the next few weeks, analysts say. 

“Our base-case scenario for platinum remains constructive, with a fair value of $1,000 [per troy ounce] driven by higher industrial demand, market volatility, and the South African rand,” says a recent note from Aberdeen Standard Investments. “Under a bullish scenario, platinum may rise to $1,150 [per troy ounce],” or 44% above recent prices. Read more here.

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Forbes: America Gets Baked

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors in pot stocks take note: New research should make you beam.

Drug use in the U.S. is on the rise and marijuana remains the indulgence of choice by a wide margin, according to a recent report from testing firm Quest Diagnostics. Marijuana also goes by the name weed, pot, ganja, and cannabis.

"[...] drug test positivity in the majority of industry sectors analyzed is growing,” according to Dr. Barry Sample, senior director, science and technology, Quest Diagnostics Employer Solutions, who was quoted in the research paper.  Read more here.

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Forbes: Slow Down Yes -- Recession Not Yet

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The U.S. economy will likely weaken in 2019, but that doesn't mean a recession is imminent.

At least that's what important economic metrics suggest.

"At present, the outcome looks to be only a modest slowdown in the next couple of quarters," states a recent report from financial research firm HCWE & Co.

In other words, no recession in the cards yet. Recessions usually get defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Read more here.

Forbes: Market Turmoil Shows Why You Should Own Gold

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The plunge in the stock market is rightly worrying for investors, but there is also something to learn.

Diversified portfolios help during times of stress. Read more here.

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Barron's: British American, Philip Morris International Stocks Ready to Light Up

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Two European tobacco stocks, British American Tobacco, makers of Lucky Strike, Kool, and Newport cigarettes, and Philip Morris International, best known for its Marlboro brand, offer some stability for whipsawed investors.

After being beaten up for most of this year, the shares of both British American (ticker: BTI) and Philip Morris (PM) are substantially undervalued, generally less volatile than the overall market, and yield huge dividends. Read more here.

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Barron's: Cheap European Stocks to Buy for 2019

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It could be worth your while to shop for stocks in London, Paris, and Frankfurt during 2019.

While Europe’s top three economies didn’t prove much of a bargain for investors in 2018, their problems—ranging from Brexit to restive local populations—are likely to dissipate. The stocks are inexpensive, and central bank monetary policies will remain supportive. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: No Confidence. No Clarity.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

And we thought all the Brexit drama for the week happened Monday. That’s when UK Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliamentary vote on the details of finally leaving the European Union. She then jetted off to meet other European leaders to negotiate a better deal than the one she had just made.

Then Wednesday came along. May’s own party members in the House of Commons, angry at the deal May originally made, forced a vote of no confidence—an up-or-down vote on May’s leadership. May won, which means she will remain prime minister. But all that intraparty warfare did nothing to define the future of Brexit and give business leaders the one thing they need: clarity. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Brexit Roulette

By SIMON CONSTABLE

So much for a clarifying vote on Brexit.

In yet another jolt to the historic divorce, UK Prime Minister Theresa postponed the first Parliamentary vote this week on a proposed detailing the UK’s departure from the European Union. May wants more time to convince skeptical members of Parliament to sign on to her deal. Read more here.

Forbes: Brexit And The Frankfurt Yeti

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A Brexit-related conundrum is vexing some London-based banking chiefs, or at least it should be.

If Britain leaves the European Union without a trade deal with the bloc, then banks will have to send part of their workforce to mainland Europe. That's what these top dogs of finance tell me.

Therein lies the crux of the issue. That's because it presents the bosses with an inherent contradiction that in some ways looks beyond-hard-to-solve. Read more here.

WSJ: What Is Hyperinflation?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Triple-digit inflation has blighted some countries lately. However, the vast majority of those nations aren’t experiencing hyperinflation and most likely never will.

The difference is akin to the distinction between a bad cold and killer influenza. Read more here.

WSJ: The Reasons an ETF Succeeds or Fails

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The world is awash with exchange-traded funds, but not all succeed in appealing to investors. Some attract billions of dollars, and some barely anything.

So, what determines a fund’s success? Read more here.

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Barron's: Why It’s Time to Bail Out of Deutsche Bank

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s not much to love about Deutsche Bank. The German banking giant is mired in legal woes, the stock is expensive, and a restructuring will dog its performance for some time. Deutsche Bank shares have the potential to fall 30% on top of already-brutal declines. “We fail to see an improvement in the underlying business,” said a recent Morningstar report. Read more here.

Barron's: A Toast to J.D. Wetherspoon

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s time to quaff some shares of British pub chain J.D. Wetherspoon.

The stock (ticker: JDW.UK), which recently dropped after an earnings scare, is cheap and has a persistently high return on equity. “We view the pull-back as a compelling buying opportunity,” states a recent report titled “Playing the Long Game,” from European broker Berenberg. Read more here.

Forbes: Investors Get Bitten By the Gold Bug Again

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors started piling into gold exchange-traded funds in October.

Overall they added 23 metric tons of the metal to investments such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), according to a recent report. The Gold Shares ETF holds bars of solid bullion. Read more here.

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Forbes: Investors Should Love Tech Regulation, If It Ever Happens

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some investors have caught the jitters over the crescendo-like call for more tech-company regulations.

They shouldn't. Read more here.

Forbes: Who's To Blame For GM's Woes -- Trump Or The Fed?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's more to General Motors' problems than steel tariffs.

While it is convenient to blame President Donald Trump for the recent mass layoff announcement at my former employer, there are other perhaps more important things to consider. Read more here.

Forbes: Why Stock Investors Should Cheer Plunging Oil Prices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some people are doing an awful lot of handwringing over plunging oil prices.

They shouldn't be. When oil prices take a major hit, just like we've seen recently, then stock prices should surge in short order, according to detailed historical market analysis. Read more here.

Forbes: How GDPR Became Europe's Tech Job-Killer

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The European Union seems to have shot itself in the foot.

Its efforts to protect your data from misuse likely cost the bloc tens of thousands of jobs in the fast-growing technology sector, according to a recent report from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Read more here.

Middle East Eye: Trump and the "Saudi Effect"

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Was Saudi Arabia really responsible for the recent plunge in global oil prices?

The Gulf kingdom deserves some of the credit that US President Donald Trump doled out just before the US Thanksgiving holiday this week, when he thanked Saudi Arabia for "oil prices getting lower".

But a slew of other things are involved, including expectations that the demand for oil will decrease and increased supplies from North American shale-fracking operations, analysts say. Read more here.

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Barron's: Dutch Materials Stock Looks Tempting

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s time to bet on Dutch materials firm AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group.

Investors recently soured on lithium, casting a pall over the stock (ticker: AMG.Netherlands), even though its exposure to the metal is small. Now the shares—including those traded over the counter in the U.S. under the symbol AMVMF—look cheap, especially given the company’s expanding profit margins. Read more here. 

Briefings Magazine: Beyond Blending In

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s an oil painting by 17th-century Flemish painter Anthony van Dyck, the kind almost any museum would proudly display. Only this one is hanging in a slightly different location: a conference room of a wealth-management firm.

Or at least it could be. While everyone from clients to office workers may give it scant notice, most companies tend to treat office art fairly seriously. After all, aside from the money they may spend on it, the art alone can help business, serving as an icebreaker, for example. “It is difficult to get people to start talking about their money immediately,” says Annelien Bruins, CEO of the Tang Art Advisory in New York. For their part, hedge funds may use artwork to signal financial success. Read more here.

Briefings Magazine: It Isn’t the End of the World

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Italy somehow goes without a ruling party government for three months. Britain’s government is only a little better off, with internal conflict and party bickering bringing Brexit negotiations to a halt. And let’s not even bring up all the dizzying turmoil from the White House and Congress in the United States. All of which should be shaking up these countries’ economies, with investors and corporate leaders feeling pretty nervous with every headline. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: No-Brexit Deal-- The Ultimate Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It was months in the making, and still the deal that Prime Minister Theresa May forged with the European Union didn’t passing enough muster within her own cabinet. And so the talk of a no-Brexit deal scenario continues to rumble through the global markets. Read more here.

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Middle East Eye: How finance technology can grow Middle East economies

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Lack of access to banking is hampering the Middle East and North Africa.

Access to such services in the region lags the world, which, in turn, is holding back economic growth, according to new research. 

The better news is that there is plenty of untapped potential to unleash, particularly through the use of fintech, or financial technology. In other words, the problem is fixable. Read more here.

Barron's: Two Ways to Play Theresa May’s Brexit Drama

By SIMON CONSTABLE

United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May’s travails in selling her Brexit deal with the European Union to her own Conservative government played out in the U.K. market. Stocks were hit hard, with the locally focused FTSE 250 index losing 1.6% and the pound retreating 1.7%. 

Among the harder hit stocks were big U.K. real estate investment trusts, British Land (ticker: BLND.UK) and Land Securities (LAND.UK), which fell 5.4% and 5%, respectively, on Thursday alone. Read more here.

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Barron's: Why Hungarian Stocks Are Ready to Rise

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There’s lots to like in Hungary, including strong capital inflows, fast economic growth, low borrowing costs, and a much-improved banking sector. All should help boost local stocks.

“Higher bank profits should improve banks’ ability to ramp up lending and give more support to output growth and investment,” says Ugras Ulku, deputy head of emerging market Europe research at the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Read more here.

Budapest

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