Forbes: Coming Soon To Markets: A U.S.-Europe Bust-up

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's an eerie but placid tone in current U.S.-Europe relations.

Investors should view it as the calm before the storm that could eventually wreak havoc across global financial markets.

"It seems most likely that tensions between the U.S. and Europe rise in the coming months," writes Marc Chandler, chief currency market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Read more here.

Photo by David Beale on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: The EU’s Reliance on Older Workers

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s the ideal goal of companies around the world—hire a steady stream of young, talented workers, then develop them into future leaders who in turn help the organization reach new heights.

But while all firms experience challenges in developing leaders, European organizations have an even more fundamental problem: hiring young workers in the first place. Read more here.

Darden: Cooking (and Uncooking) the Books: Corporate Financial Misreporting

By SIMON CONSTABLE

In business, mistakes happen all the time. But how many executives follow the rule “If you make a mess, clean it up”?

A mere one-in-six public companies almost certain to have misstated their earnings actually bothered to fix the problem, according to new research conducted by Justin Hopkins, a member of Darden’s Accounting faculty.

“You can identify firms to a high degree of likelihood whether they committed wrongdoing without their admitting to it,” says Professor Hopkins. Put bluntly, confessions aren’t required to identify the probable perpetrators. Read more here.

Forbes: The Bill To Green America's Electricity Industry Is As Big As The Banking Bailout

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The bill for greening your electricity is going to be as big as the banking bailout.

More specifically, the net cost of replacing all fossil fuel power stations with renewable energy will total more than $700 billion over the next three decades. That's comparable to what the U.S. Treasury paid to rescue the broken U.S. banks a decade ago.

That's also the low estimate. Read more here.

Forbes: What You Need To Know About Sadiq Khan's Rent Control Plan For London

By SIMON CONSTABLE

You really can't fix stupid.

Sadiq Khan, the left-leaning mayor of Britain's capital city, London, wants to introduce rent controls as a way to make housing more affordable.

The problem is that doing such a thing will almost certainly have the opposite effect of that desired and will make renting a home even harder.

Here's what you need to know and why it won't work. Read more here.

TheStreet: Harley Davidson Races Past Expectations but Motorcycle Sales Remain Sluggish

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Iconic motorcycle maker Harley Davidson raced past Wall Street expectations in the second quarter. The business, however, is slowing down. Read more here.

Photo by Donald Teel on Unsplash

The Street: Toymaker Hasbro Wins Big in Second Quarter, Crushes Estimates

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Toymaker Hasbro smashed Wall Street earnings estimates in the second quarter on the back of strength in North America.

The company posted adjusted earnings per share of 78 cents vs. analysts' expectations of 50 cents. Last year, the company earned 48 cents a share. Read more here.

TheStreet: Stanley Black & Decker Smashes Earnings Expectations

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Home improvement tools maker Stanley Black & Decker smashed earnings expectations with improved sales and reduced overhead driving the results.

In the second quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.66 vs. Wall Street expectations of $2.55. Earnings a year earlier were $1.93 a share. Read more here.

TheStreet: UBS Profit Rises Slightly but Hampered by Wealth Management, Investment Banking

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Swiss-based financial services company UBS posted a slight increase in second-quarter earnings though the results were hampered in part by its sluggish wealth management and investment banking divisions.

The bank also warned that lower interest rates and politics could impede growth in future profits. Read more here.

Ank Kumar, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

TheStreet: Cal-Maine Foods Gets Scrambled as Earnings Fall on Oversupply of Eggs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's no yoking matter. Egg producer Cal-Maine Foods, just laid, well, an egg. Read more here.

Photo by Gabriel Gurrola on Unsplash

TheStreet: Crunch Time for U.S. Firms Wanting to Restart Sales to Huawei

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A White House tech summit scheduled for Monday could be a make or break for U.S. companies wanting to do business with China-based telecom firm Huawei Technologies.

The meeting, which is expected to be attended by tech bosses from Google-owner Alphabet and computer memory manufacturer Micron Technology as well as others, will discuss whether U.S. companies will be able to sell their products and services to Huawei, according to a report from Reuters. Huawei is the world's largest supplier for telecom technology. Read more here.

TheStreet: Disney Rules the Box Office With Roar of 'The Lion King' and 'Avengers: Endgame'

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Walt Disney had a heck of a weekend at the box office.

In its debut weekend, "The Lion King" took in a staggering $185 million of theater receipts, easily beating estimates of $150 million. Read more here.

One-On-One -- Simon Constable joins Hedgeye Podcast

NEW PODCAST
One-On-One -- Simon Constable joins Hedgeye

Topics include:

🇮🇹Why default may lie ahead in Italy
🥇Bullish Gold catalysts
💻Concerns around crypto
🇬🇧Why Britain's inept govt benefits its economy
💲Risks of cannabis ETFs https://t.co/wcYVJGBR3R

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) July 16, 2019

John Batchelor Show: Small-cap gold stocks looking good for acquisition by Big Gold

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Barron's: A Bargain Stock to Play East African Oil

By SIMON CONSTABLE

British-based but Africa-focused, Tullow Oil could come up a gusher. 

Its shares (ticker: TLW.UK) have the potential to jump 40% or more in the next 12 months, analysts say. Investors, they argue, are giving Tullow little credit for its prospects in East Africa. Read more here.

WSJ: Index-Fund Firms Gain Power, But Fall Short in Stewardship, Research Shows

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The three largest index-fund managers have grown so big that they ultimately could hamper the performance of public companies and the economy, according to research from corporate-governance scholars. 

The researchers—Lucian Bebchuk, professor of law, economics and finance at Harvard Law School, and Scott Hirst, a law professor at Boston University School of Law—recently published two papers that raise issues for investors. Read more here.

WSJ: Cannabis ETFs Aren’t the Same

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A burning desire for pot stocks may leave unwary cannabis investors with more speculative investments than they realize.

Take two exchange-traded funds focused on the cannabis industry: ETFMG Alternative Harvest (MJ) and the recently launched AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis (YOLO). While they both purport to track the same industry, they are actually quite different. Read more here.

Cannabis Plants

Chmee2, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What Is a Stock Rerating?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When Wall Street analysts use the terms “rerating,” “rerate” or “derating,” they are talking about something at the heart of the investing process: changes in investor sentiment. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Just Four Workdays in the UK?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

While the United Kingdom continues to figure out how to depart from the European Union, a number of the country’s politicians are debating whether to break away from a far more ensconced institution: the five-day workweek.

The UK’s Labour Party is considering a proposal to trim the five-day week for public-sector workers down to four. That comes, of course, as the debate about the length of workweeks has crisscrossed other countries and organizations. While a four-day workweek is still not practical in many cases, proponents say more flexible schedules can spur greater productivity and engagement from employees. Read more here.

Joe Piscopo Show: Discussing G-20 Summit & Tariffs

TheStreet: Why the Gold Rally Is Set to Run

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's all systems go for gold investors.

The bullion market is stirring from a multiyear slumber and looks set to enter a sustained rally, experts say. Double-digit increases within the next 18 months may be only the start of the price surge. Read more here.

John Batchelor Show: Boris Johnson is highly entertaining for England but not for Scotland

Forbes: No Shame? Investors Pile Billions Into Saudi Stocks Months After Alleged Murder Of Jamal Khashoggi

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Has Wall Street no shame? Probably not.

Late last year the world reacted with horror as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia got implicated in the alleged murder of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

But looking at the actions of the finance community you'd think nothing happened. Read more here.

TheStreet: Now Is The Time to Buy Small-Cap Gold Stocks

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The gold bulls are back.

The price for the metal just breached $1,400 a troy ounce, its highest level since 2013. The move opens the possibility that investor appetite for the metal is rising. 

If we are indeed entering a major bull market for the metal then savvy investors should consider buying smaller cap gold mining stocks rather than either the metal itself or the larger miners. Read more here.

Featured On "Index Fund Advisors" Website

The Wall Street Journal, however, warned in an article (March 2019) that during down markets "ETFs could make things even worse." Markets reporter Simon Constable pointed to research that indicated "the proliferation of exchange-traded funds could create problems in a volatile market."

Read more here.

On The Joe Piscopo Show Talking Economics

Featured on the Web

Forbes: Doomed -- How There's No Way Out Of The Debt Crisis For Italy

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Forget Brexit, there's something far more worrying afoot in Europe: Italy's debt problem. It's on course to spark an existential crisis for Europe's single currency area, the eurozone.

While the European Union will aim to fix the problem it looks like they'll be no escape from the coming calamity, experts say. Read more here.

Forbes: How Hot-desking Will Kill Your Company

By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you hate your company, its employees and the shareholders then go ahead and introduce the latest management fad: Hot-desking.

It's a better way to destroy the firm than inviting Russian hackers to rob you blind. The bigger the company, the faster the damage will occur with hot-desking. Read more here.

TheStreet: How to Profit as Plant-Based Meat Takes Off

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Don't bet on Beyond Meat (BYND) to bring home the bacon for investors, especially after its big run-up.

Instead, try agribusiness company Corteva Inc (CTVA) , which was until recently part of mega chemical company DowDuPont (DWDP) . At the same time, lighten up on makers of plant foods such as Mosaic (MOS) . Read more here.

Forbes: How Lebanon Will Dodge Its Looming Debt Crisis

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The economic outlook for Lebanon is not nearly as bad as some would have you believe.
And that presents an opportunity for investors to buy Lebanese government bonds at a potentially massive discount.

Yes, on the face of it, Lebanon's current situation seems dire, especially when you consider the following.

Photo by Charbel Karam on Unsplash

Briefings for the Boardroom: Getting Nabbed for ‘Purpose Washing’

By SIMON CONSTABLE

On paper, nearly every company has a stated purpose, spelled out in a mission statement that used to be generally ignored. Until now. Read more here.

Photo by Erik Witsoe on Unsplash

TheStreet: Elizabeth Warren's Misguided Currency Plan Would Cause Gold Prices to Rally

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Gold investors should love presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren. 

Her plan to lower the value of the dollar will likely cause inflation, capital flight, and a currency war -- any of which have the potential to boost gold prices. And if all happen together, then bullion will do even better. Read more here.

Featured in Sioux City Journal

Comment from Constable included in an editorial from the Sioux City Journal discussing tariffs on Mexico:

A weaker economy (with slower growth and potentially rising unemployment) will serve to increase the incentives for Mexicans to attempt entering the U.S. in search of work. Or put bluntly, the number of illegal immigrants coming to the U.S. via the open Mexican border will almost certainly increase [...]

Read the original Forbes story on the futility of the U.S. tariff plan for Mexico here.

Mexico City

Photo by Daniel Lloyd Blunk-Fernández on Unsplash

Forbes: Detroit's Headache -- Car Buyers Don't Seem To Care About Fuel Efficiency

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Do consumers care about fuel-efficiency when buying cars? Probably not, at least when it comes to their pocketbook. 

Car buyers substantially underestimate the savings from reduced fuel costs when making car purchase decisions, according to new research.  As a result, they are willing to pay up far less for the added fuel efficiency than the savings are worth. Read more here.

Forbes: How Elizabeth Warren's Weak-Dollar Plan Will Crash The Stock Market

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren has a plan for the U.S. currency that will likely kill the stock market.

The problem is that what she proposed, which effectively involves devaluing the greenback, won't be beneficial for investors, an analysis of history shows. Read more here.

Elizabeth Warren

United States Senate, Public domain, 

via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: What Does It Mean When Investors Say, ‘Sell the Profit’?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Wall Street is inventive when it comes to terminology. Consider, for example, “sell the profit.” At first read, it may not be clear what the phrase means.

The term refers to selling stocks in the anticipation that annualized growth in corporate profits will slow down. That’s relevant now because investors anticipate weaker company earnings over the next few months, which could have a significant impact on share prices. Read more here.

WSJ: Where Emerging-Markets Investments Are Going

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Exchange-traded funds specializing in emerging markets have been drawing tens of billions of dollars in new investment lately. But not all countries are getting equal love from investors. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Renault, Fiat Chrysler Will Stay in Their Own Lanes

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Few firms these days are being forced to change gears faster than car companies. Customers are shunning sedans. Regulations and trade policies are in flux. Electric-powered cars have a foothold in the market, and self-driving vehicles may not be too far away. Read more here.

Korn Ferry: Exit Stage Right

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It was going to be a graceful bow-out for the “most powerful woman in the world.” But now, German chancellor Angela Merkel is watching her succession plan disintegrate. Read more here.

Photo by Manki Kim on Unsplash

Joe Piscopo Show: Brexit and Trump's UK Visit

Constable Featured on Capgemini Pink Tax Video

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Photo by Priscilla Du Preez on Unsplash

John Batchelor Show: The English Brexiteers Are Not Positives For Scotland

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Forbes: New Book Reveals The Tawdry Truth About Redlining And Other Dodgy Lending Practices

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It should be clear when it comes to money the playing field of finance has been heavily skewed against many groups, including women, African Americans, Native Americans, and even the indigent white population. Loans to given to some people with ease are frequently denied to otherwise similar folk due to prejudices of the lender.

While most Americans know that "redlining" meant residents of specific neighborhoods wouldn't get loans, there's far more to the appalling history of excluding many groups from participating in mainstream finance. That matters because while money makes the world go around (and it does) anyone treated unfairly will be disadvantaged.

Acclaimed financial historian Robert E. Wright brilliantly tackles the topic with his usual thoroughness in his new book Financial Exclusion: How Competition Can Fix a Broken System. It's published by the American Institute for Economic Research earlier this month. Read more here.

Forbes: Trump's Mexican Tariff Plan Could Make Illegal Immigration Worse

By SIMON CONSTABLE

When you try to fix something the first thing to do is make sure you don't make it worse.

But it looks like President Donald Trump hasn't read that memo with respect to his new move against Mexico. Read more here.

Photo by Emir Saldierna on Unsplash

Korn Ferry: A Prime Minister…or a CEO?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It’s always a weird feeling when the boss gives two-weeks notice. Employees are hoping that the new boss hired has the qualities that make for a successful leader. 

It’s even more unusual when the boss who’s quitting is the UK Prime Minister. Between now and June 7, when Theresa May steps down from the post, members of the ruling Conservative Party are tasked to determine who among an increasing number of potential successors has what it takes to be a successful leader of the country. Read more here.

Forbes: Three Things For Stock Investors To Worry About

By SIMON CONSTABLE

There's trouble brewing in corporate America, and it could hurt your stock holdings.

Here are three things you need to know:

TheStreet: How the Rain-Soaked Midwest Will Crush the Corn Crop and Send Prices Jumping

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Biblical-style flooding in the Midwest is hampering the corn planting season and sending prices for the grain to their highest level in three years. 

And the rally could go further in the autumn by as much as 20% over current levels, analysts say. Read more here.

Forbes: Will The Ghost Of Daimler Haunt Fiat Chrysler's Merger Ambitions?

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Not again?

That should be the question following Monday's proposed merger between Italian-U.S. carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and France's auto manufacturer Renault, best known for its eponymous brand of vehicles. The deal would create a mega-manufacturer of light vehicles with annual sales of almost $200 billion. Read more here.

Featured in "Seeking Alpha"

While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by "pulling forward"future consumption, such actions create an eventual "void" that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the "event horizon" may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.

I recently discussed this point with my friend Simon Constable specifically. He is right. Following the financial crisis, the average age of vehicles on the road had gotten fairly extended, so a replacement cycle became more likely. This replacement cycle was accelerated when the Obama Administration launched the "cash for clunkers" program, which reduced the number of "used" vehicles for sale pushing individuals into new cars.

See full seeking alpha post here.