CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Commodities: Energy spikes, food stabilizes. Crypto's Future

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Forbes: Some Good Inflation News Coming Soon, Cresset Capital

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Some much-needed relief from surging inflation may be at hand.

If true, it couldn’t be more welcome as consumers wince from surging fuel and food prices. The recent inflation rate hit a four-decade high of 9.1% in June, according to government data. Read more here.

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Darden: To the Moon or Back to Earth: Where Does Crypto Go Next?

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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The Hartford: Substance Use and Mental Health -- Supporting Employees Without Stigma

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Over the past three years, employers across the U.S. have become increasingly concerned about substance misuse by their employees. For good reason: the numbers continue to climb.
 
More than 40 million Americans 12 and older have a substance use disorder, which is defined by an uncontrolled use of a substance despite harmful consequences, including alcohol, tobacco, prescription medications or other drugs.1 A staggering 107,600 people died from drug overdoses in 2021, the highest death toll on record, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Read more here.

Heroin Needle

eric molina from New York City, United States, 

CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #EU The Euro is weak and the European climate is punishing. Simon Constable, Time Magazine. Edinburgh, Scotland 2/2

By SIMON CONSTABLE

 

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #EU The Euro is weak and the European climate is punishing. Simon Constable, Time Magazine. Edinburgh, Scotland 1/2

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Time Magazine: What the Crash of the Euro Means for American Tourists

By SIMON CONSTABLE

A handful of American consumers–especially tourists visiting Europe–stand to benefit from the U.S. dollar’s recent strengthening against the euro, but the wider impact on the U.S. economy may not be as positive.

The euro, the single currency of much of the European Union, has been tumbling over the last year-and-a-half. Following a 20% decline in the European currency against the greenback since the beginning of last year, one dollar buys roughly one euro for the first time in two decades. Read more here.

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Video: Two MPs Kicked Out of the House of Commons

 

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Markets Commodities drive inflation on both sides of the Atlantic, Chaos in Parliament

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Lindsay Hoyle, 

Speaker of the House of Commons 

Richard Townshend, CC BY 3.0, 

via Wikimedia Commons

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Scotland: #UK PM Johnson exits slowly; & What is to be done about COLA?

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: Two Decades of Sarbanes-Oxley

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Exclusively in Print

Featured in Defence Connect: Sanctions backfire, quite often

From Defence Connect: 

More recent opinion research from the Levada-Center has demonstrated that those in Russia who hold the US responsible for the war in Ukraine jumped from 50 per cent to 60 per cent in the three months leading to the invasion. 

Perhaps Simon Constable in Time put the sanctions dilemma most carefully under the microscope, noting that “sanctions often prompt a country’s population to rally around the flag”. 

“A siege mentality takes over with people banding together to weather the storm.” 

Beyond the growth of Russian nationalism, US-led sanctions have forced the Kremlin to build new shadow economic, military and political architectures outside of the US-led international order.

Read more here. 

Forbes: Bearish Sentiment Improves, But Remains Elevated

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Investors remain bearish by a factor of two-to-one. That’s down from recent readings but still elevated, and is possibly a sign that the market is nearing a bottom.

According to a recent survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, 47% of investors were bearish, meaning they expected stocks to keep falling, for the week ending June 29. That’s more than twice the 23% portion of investors who were bullish. Read more here.

Forbes: Energy Crushes Tech In First Half

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Six months and what a difference.

After years of perpetually rallying the tech-heavy Nasdaq has slumped. Actually, it's worse than that.

Yet during the same period, the energy sector has soared. Read more here.

Forbes: Key Indicator Shows China’s Economy Set For Further Slump

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Just when you thought China might be back on track, a key economic indicator suggests the opposite is coming down the pike. Read more here.

China's President Xi

U.S. Department of State from United States, 

Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Forbes: Boris Government Chips Away At Free Trade

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

It looks like Britain is about to resort to protectionism. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed raising or extending tariffs on imported steel from a variety of countries including China, Turkey and India.

While the reasoning behind this plan may look sound, it sets a bad precedent for a government-run by the Conservative Party, usually a champion of free trade. Read more here.

Forbes: A Potential Solution To The Northern Ireland Protocol: Turn A Blind Eye

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Much of the UK press is now sounding the alarm that the British government’s thoughts of pulling out of the Northern Ireland protocol will unleash economic hell on the UK.

The idea behind the Northern Ireland protocol is complicated. But the essence of it is to avoid a normal or ‘hard’ border between Northern Ireland and the Republic which is in the European Union. The second part of this involves there being some form of customs checks between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland.

It’s that latter bit that isn’t working and which Prime Minister Boris Johnson= seems to want to end. The British government says it can do this legally while the EU (and much of the press) is outraged by the idea.

The worry is that the EU also rips up its side of the trade agreement with the UK so effectively letting off an economic hand grenade.

Yet, there is a solution to this problem that many countries use. It works this way. An agreement is made and agreed to, but then the various parties simply do not enforce it. Read more here.

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Markets: Commodities cool; Scotland heats up

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon 

Scottish Parliament, OSPL, via Wikimedia Commons

Time Magazine: A Recession Isn't Inevitable But Europe's Concerns Are Real

By SIMON CONSTABLE

An ugly word has been shooting around the media like it's going out of fashion: Recession, usually considered as two back-to-back quarters of a shrinking economy.

Judging by recent headlines and rhetoric from experts, you’d think we are already there. But as with many things, the truth is more nuanced. To be sure, no one in their right mind wants to see a recession, as these periods of malaise usually coincide with higher unemployment and lower corporate profits. Read more here.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Federal Reserve, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Commodities. Gold holds value, crypto doesn't.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Ank Kumar, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Cited in VettaFi: OUNZ Shows Its Defensive Mettle

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Just look at the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ ). OUNZ, the first gold-backed ETF that delivers physical bullion to investors when they sell shares, is up 0.34% year-to-date. Conversely, the S&P 500 is lower by 23%. Translation: OUNZ is doing its job for investors in what’s proving to be a turbulent 2022.

In this climate, OUNZ’s performance is worth bragging about because it’s vastly superior to those of other major asset classes.

“Gold has once again shown itself to be a solid haven investment in the face of market turmoil. Even though bullion prices have dipped a little this year, they have massively outperformed other major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies, which have all taken a beating,” reported Simon Constable for Barron’s.

Read more here.

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Barron's: Gold Is Holding Up as Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto Plunge

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Gold has once again shown itself to be a solid haven investment in the face of market turmoil. Even though bullion prices have dipped a little this year, they have massively outperformed other major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies, which have all taken a beating.

It should be a reminder to prudent investors to consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to the yellow metal. Read more here.

Szaaman, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Commodities: One hundred English pounds for a tank of gas

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Forbes Japan: Stocks Won't Save You From Inflation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

株に投資すればインフレによる資産の目減りを避けられるのではないか。もしそんなふうにお考えだとしたら、残念ながら間違いだ。おそらく、逆に資産をさらに減らす結果になってしまうだろう。

「株式は投資家をインフレから守ってくれるというのは、長期的にみても神話にすぎない」。調査会社HCWEアンド・カンパニーは最近のリポートでそう警告する。

Read more here. 

Katsushika Hokusai , Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: Lumber Prices Are Falling With a Thud. Softer Housing Sales Are Hammering Demand.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

You can almost hear the sound of falling lumber prices, with probably more to go. The Federal Reserve’s slow-but-steady war on inflation will crimp demand for wood used in the home-building industry, sending prices down by almost 50%, experts say.

“With reduced disposable income and higher interest rates, it’s very hard to see the confidence for buying homes at these prices,” says Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. Read more here. 

Tree fellers with the Madera Sugar Pine Company, circa 1911

Madera Sugar Pine Company, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Commodities: #Scotland, #EU, #UK — Natural gas rising indefinitely.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Joshua Doubek, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

WSJ: Financial Flashback The Libor Scandal

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Exclusively in print.

Briefings Magazine: Energy Prices Hit the Gas

By SIMON CONSTABLE

On the surface, it sounds like the early 1970s, with shortages at gas pumps and homeowners suffering through soaring heat prices. But this isn’t the energy crisis of 1973, when a group of oil-rich Arab countries embargoed oil exports to the US and other countries. It’s actually what is happening in large pockets across the globe, only it has a new name: energy insecurity. Read more here.

NeoRetro, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, 

via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: Natural-Gas Prices Will Stay High as Demand Outpaces Supply

By SIMON CONSTABLE 

Natural-gas prices could jump by 15% or more by year-end as supplies fall far short of demand, experts say.

“Increasing supply is now getting trickier, and we really don’t see much of a jump until this time next year,” says Peter McNally, an energy expert at Third Bridge. Read more here.

Tim Evanson, CC BY-SA 2.0, 

via Wikimedia Commons

CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Commodities-- Coffee moderates; food and fuel do not.

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Forbes China: 德国现70年来最高通胀，欧元借贷成本高于预期

By SIMON CONSTABLE

It's been translated into Chinese from the original English. Read more here.

Forbes: Highest German Inflation In 70 Years To Prompt Higher Than Expected Hike In Euro Borrowing Costs

By SIMON CONSTABLE

This is the highest jump in German inflation since the British Queen took the throne seven decades ago. Read more here.

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Forbes: Don’t Expect Stocks To Save You From Inflation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Even in the long run, it's a myth. Read more here.

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Forbes: “Solid Growth Prospects Alongside A Very Robust Labor Market” DB Says

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Time for some good news.

The outlook for Main Street and Wall Street looks good, at least according to a recent report from Deutsche Bank. Read more here.

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Forbes: Investors Pull $244 Billion From Mutual Funds As Market Slides: Report

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

If you buy into Warren Buffet’s famous maxim “ be greedy when others are fearful,” then now is the time to act. Read more here.

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Forbes: 3 Reasons Elizabeth Warren’s Price Gouging War Doesn’t Make Sense

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

In fact, the whole effort is nonsensical, backwards, and self-defeating, least from an economics viewpoint. Read more here.

Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, 

CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Barron's: Lower Prices Are Brewing for Coffee. Thank the Weather Forecast.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

Relief is at hand for coffee lovers who have been blighted by soaring prices for the past year or so. For that, they can thank favorable weather in South America and lower-than-expected demand growth.

“In the absence of a weather event, prices are likely to trend down,” says Carlos Mera, the head of agricultural commodities market research at Rabobank in London. Read more here.

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Markets: Wheat spikes; & What is to be done?

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Barron's: An Epic Wheat Rally Could Soon End. Here’s How to Play It.

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The scorching-hot wheat market looks set for a cool-down. A combination of drought, war, and a wheat export ban in India has sent prices for the grain sky high. But they might now be reaching the end of what has been an epic rally, experts say.

“The market is so overbought right now,” says Jim Roemer, agricultural expert and author of the Weather Wealth newsletter. “The market squeeze should begin to end in June or July.” Read more here.

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Ukraine -- The bountiful soybean crop and the looming global famine

By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Soybean Field

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E.On: Why going green is fast becoming a necessity in the C-Suite

By SIMON CONSTABLE

The world changed in the autumn of 2021. It happened when many of the great and the good flocked to Glasgow for the COP26 climate summit. At those meetings, global political leaders and climate activists made pledges to do what was necessary to ensure environmentally sustainable economic growth. In other words, going ‘green’ had officially gone mainstream in a big way.

It wasn't just politicians and activists. Investors who had once evaluated companies solely on after-tax profits have also changed. Now they want the businesses in which they invest to adopt sustainable business practices as soon as possible. It's something that CEOs and other top leaders need to understand. Eventually, the matter will have a bearing on whether companies get corporate financing or whether they don't. Read more here.

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WABC Radio: Morano in the Morning - Discussing Crypto

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

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Barron's: Soybean Prices Look Set to Decline. That Could Help Put a Dent in Food Costs

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Tofu lovers should rejoice. Prices of soybeans, the key ingredient in tofu, look set to drop this year as supply increases and demand declines. Investors should also benefit from the move.

“We’re set up for potential record yields along with record acreage,” says Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. Read more here.

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CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Ukraine: Big Oil innovation

By SIMON CONSTABLE

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WSJ: Financial Flashback -- Facebook Fumbles Market Launch

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

Exclusively in print.

Barron's: Two Stocks That Could Surge as European Union Moves to Shun Russian Oil

 By SIMON CONSTABLE

The bold move by the European Union to phase out its Russian oil and natural gas use will likely exacerbate the already low levels of inventories, boost oil and gas prices, and accelerate the move to renewable energy. Major energy companies that are on their way to making the transition away from fossil fuels look set to gain.

“I continue to believe that today’s energy companies will be the energy companies of the future,” says Peter Tchir, head of global macro at Academy Securities. “They will be the ones who drive the sustainable energy products.” Read more here.

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