By SIMON CONSTABLE
Thursday, July 28, 2022
Wednesday, July 27, 2022
Forbes: Some Good Inflation News Coming Soon, Cresset Capital
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Some much-needed relief from surging inflation may be at hand.
If true, it couldn’t be more welcome as consumers wince from surging fuel and food prices. The recent inflation rate hit a four-decade high of 9.1% in June, according to government data. Read more here.
Monday, July 25, 2022
Thursday, July 21, 2022
The Hartford: Substance Use and Mental Health -- Supporting Employees Without Stigma
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Over the past three years, employers across the U.S. have become increasingly concerned about substance misuse by their employees. For good reason: the numbers continue to climb.
More than 40 million Americans 12 and older have a substance use disorder, which is defined by an uncontrolled use of a substance despite harmful consequences, including alcohol, tobacco, prescription medications or other drugs.1 A staggering 107,600 people died from drug overdoses in 2021, the highest death toll on record, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Read more here.
Tuesday, July 19, 2022
Time Magazine: What the Crash of the Euro Means for American Tourists
By SIMON CONSTABLE
A handful of American consumers–especially tourists visiting Europe–stand to benefit from the U.S. dollar’s recent strengthening against the euro, but the wider impact on the U.S. economy may not be as positive.
The euro, the single currency of much of the European Union, has been tumbling over the last year-and-a-half. Following a 20% decline in the European currency against the greenback since the beginning of last year, one dollar buys roughly one euro for the first time in two decades. Read more here.
Thursday, July 14, 2022
CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Markets Commodities drive inflation on both sides of the Atlantic, Chaos in Parliament
Friday, July 8, 2022
Monday, July 4, 2022
Sunday, July 3, 2022
Featured in Defence Connect: Sanctions backfire, quite often
From Defence Connect:
More recent opinion research from the Levada-Center has demonstrated that those in Russia who hold the US responsible for the war in Ukraine jumped from 50 per cent to 60 per cent in the three months leading to the invasion.
Perhaps Simon Constable in Time put the sanctions dilemma most carefully under the microscope, noting that “sanctions often prompt a country’s population to rally around the flag”.
“A siege mentality takes over with people banding together to weather the storm.”
Beyond the growth of Russian nationalism, US-led sanctions have forced the Kremlin to build new shadow economic, military and political architectures outside of the US-led international order.
Read more here.
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Forbes: Bearish Sentiment Improves, But Remains Elevated
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Investors remain bearish by a factor of two-to-one. That’s down from recent readings but still elevated, and is possibly a sign that the market is nearing a bottom.
According to a recent survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, 47% of investors were bearish, meaning they expected stocks to keep falling, for the week ending June 29. That’s more than twice the 23% portion of investors who were bullish. Read more here.
Forbes: Energy Crushes Tech In First Half
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Six months and what a difference.
After years of perpetually rallying the tech-heavy Nasdaq has slumped. Actually, it's worse than that.
Yet during the same period, the energy sector has soared. Read more here.
Forbes: Key Indicator Shows China’s Economy Set For Further Slump
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Just when you thought China might be back on track, a key economic indicator suggests the opposite is coming down the pike. Read more here.
China's President Xi
U.S. Department of State from United States,
Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Forbes: Boris Government Chips Away At Free Trade
By SIMON CONSTABLE
It looks like Britain is about to resort to protectionism. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed raising or extending tariffs on imported steel from a variety of countries including China, Turkey and India.
While the reasoning behind this plan may look sound, it sets a bad precedent for a government-run by the Conservative Party, usually a champion of free trade. Read more here.
Forbes: A Potential Solution To The Northern Ireland Protocol: Turn A Blind Eye
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Much of the UK press is now sounding the alarm that the British government’s thoughts of pulling out of the Northern Ireland protocol will unleash economic hell on the UK.
The idea behind the Northern Ireland protocol is complicated. But the essence of it is to avoid a normal or ‘hard’ border between Northern Ireland and the Republic which is in the European Union. The second part of this involves there being some form of customs checks between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland.
It’s that latter bit that isn’t working and which Prime Minister Boris Johnson= seems to want to end. The British government says it can do this legally while the EU (and much of the press) is outraged by the idea.
The worry is that the EU also rips up its side of the trade agreement with the UK so effectively letting off an economic hand grenade.
Yet, there is a solution to this problem that many countries use. It works this way. An agreement is made and agreed to, but then the various parties simply do not enforce it. Read more here.
CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor: #Markets: Commodities cool; Scotland heats up
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Time Magazine: A Recession Isn't Inevitable But Europe's Concerns Are Real
By SIMON CONSTABLE
An ugly word has been shooting around the media like it's going out of fashion: Recession, usually considered as two back-to-back quarters of a shrinking economy.
Judging by recent headlines and rhetoric from experts, you’d think we are already there. But as with many things, the truth is more nuanced. To be sure, no one in their right mind wants to see a recession, as these periods of malaise usually coincide with higher unemployment and lower corporate profits. Read more here.
Thursday, June 23, 2022
Wednesday, June 22, 2022
Cited in VettaFi: OUNZ Shows Its Defensive Mettle
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Just look at the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ ). OUNZ, the first gold-backed ETF that delivers physical bullion to investors when they sell shares, is up 0.34% year-to-date. Conversely, the S&P 500 is lower by 23%. Translation: OUNZ is doing its job for investors in what’s proving to be a turbulent 2022.
In this climate, OUNZ’s performance is worth bragging about because it’s vastly superior to those of other major asset classes.
“Gold has once again shown itself to be a solid haven investment in the face of market turmoil. Even though bullion prices have dipped a little this year, they have massively outperformed other major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies, which have all taken a beating,” reported Simon Constable for Barron’s.
Read more here.
Friday, June 17, 2022
Barron's: Gold Is Holding Up as Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto Plunge
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Gold has once again shown itself to be a solid haven investment in the face of market turmoil. Even though bullion prices have dipped a little this year, they have massively outperformed other major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies, which have all taken a beating.
It should be a reminder to prudent investors to consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to the yellow metal. Read more here.
Thursday, June 16, 2022
Tuesday, June 14, 2022
Forbes Japan: Stocks Won't Save You From Inflation
By SIMON CONSTABLE
株に投資すればインフレによる資産の目減りを避けられるのではないか。もしそんなふうにお考えだとしたら、残念ながら間違いだ。おそらく、逆に資産をさらに減らす結果になってしまうだろう。
「株式は投資家をインフレから守ってくれるというのは、長期的にみても神話にすぎない」。調査会社HCWEアンド・カンパニーは最近のリポートでそう警告する。
Read more here.
Thursday, June 9, 2022
Barron's: Lumber Prices Are Falling With a Thud. Softer Housing Sales Are Hammering Demand.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
You can almost hear the sound of falling lumber prices, with probably more to go. The Federal Reserve’s slow-but-steady war on inflation will crimp demand for wood used in the home-building industry, sending prices down by almost 50%, experts say.
“With reduced disposable income and higher interest rates, it’s very hard to see the confidence for buying homes at these prices,” says Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. Read more here.
Monday, June 6, 2022
Sunday, June 5, 2022
Briefings Magazine: Energy Prices Hit the Gas
By SIMON CONSTABLE
On the surface, it sounds like the early 1970s, with shortages at gas pumps and homeowners suffering through soaring heat prices. But this isn’t the energy crisis of 1973, when a group of oil-rich Arab countries embargoed oil exports to the US and other countries. It’s actually what is happening in large pockets across the globe, only it has a new name: energy insecurity. Read more here.
Friday, June 3, 2022
Barron's: Natural-Gas Prices Will Stay High as Demand Outpaces Supply
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Natural-gas prices could jump by 15% or more by year-end as supplies fall far short of demand, experts say.
“Increasing supply is now getting trickier, and we really don’t see much of a jump until this time next year,” says Peter McNally, an energy expert at Third Bridge. Read more here.
Thursday, June 2, 2022
Wednesday, June 1, 2022
Monday, May 30, 2022
Forbes: Highest German Inflation In 70 Years To Prompt Higher Than Expected Hike In Euro Borrowing Costs
By SIMON CONSTABLE
This is the highest jump in German inflation since the British Queen took the throne seven decades ago. Read more here.
Forbes: Don’t Expect Stocks To Save You From Inflation
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Even in the long run, it's a myth. Read more here.
Saturday, May 28, 2022
Forbes: “Solid Growth Prospects Alongside A Very Robust Labor Market” DB Says
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Time for some good news.
The outlook for Main Street and Wall Street looks good, at least according to a recent report from Deutsche Bank. Read more here.
Forbes: Investors Pull $244 Billion From Mutual Funds As Market Slides: Report
By SIMON CONSTABLE
If you buy into Warren Buffet’s famous maxim “ be greedy when others are fearful,” then now is the time to act. Read more here.
Forbes: 3 Reasons Elizabeth Warren’s Price Gouging War Doesn’t Make Sense
By SIMON CONSTABLE
In fact, the whole effort is nonsensical, backwards, and self-defeating, least from an economics viewpoint. Read more here.
Barron's: Lower Prices Are Brewing for Coffee. Thank the Weather Forecast.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Relief is at hand for coffee lovers who have been blighted by soaring prices for the past year or so. For that, they can thank favorable weather in South America and lower-than-expected demand growth.
“In the absence of a weather event, prices are likely to trend down,” says Carlos Mera, the head of agricultural commodities market research at Rabobank in London. Read more here.
Thursday, May 26, 2022
Saturday, May 21, 2022
Barron's: An Epic Wheat Rally Could Soon End. Here’s How to Play It.
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The scorching-hot wheat market looks set for a cool-down. A combination of drought, war, and a wheat export ban in India has sent prices for the grain sky high. But they might now be reaching the end of what has been an epic rally, experts say.
“The market is so overbought right now,” says Jim Roemer, agricultural expert and author of the Weather Wealth newsletter. “The market squeeze should begin to end in June or July.” Read more here.
Thursday, May 19, 2022
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
E.On: Why going green is fast becoming a necessity in the C-Suite
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The world changed in the autumn of 2021. It happened when many of the great and the good flocked to Glasgow for the COP26 climate summit. At those meetings, global political leaders and climate activists made pledges to do what was necessary to ensure environmentally sustainable economic growth. In other words, going ‘green’ had officially gone mainstream in a big way.
It wasn't just politicians and activists. Investors who had once evaluated companies solely on after-tax profits have also changed. Now they want the businesses in which they invest to adopt sustainable business practices as soon as possible. It's something that CEOs and other top leaders need to understand. Eventually, the matter will have a bearing on whether companies get corporate financing or whether they don't. Read more here.
Friday, May 13, 2022
Thursday, May 12, 2022
Barron's: Soybean Prices Look Set to Decline. That Could Help Put a Dent in Food Costs
By SIMON CONSTABLE
Tofu lovers should rejoice. Prices of soybeans, the key ingredient in tofu, look set to drop this year as supply increases and demand declines. Investors should also benefit from the move.
“We’re set up for potential record yields along with record acreage,” says Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. Read more here.
Friday, May 6, 2022
Barron's: Two Stocks That Could Surge as European Union Moves to Shun Russian Oil
By SIMON CONSTABLE
The bold move by the European Union to phase out its Russian oil and natural gas use will likely exacerbate the already low levels of inventories, boost oil and gas prices, and accelerate the move to renewable energy. Major energy companies that are on their way to making the transition away from fossil fuels look set to gain.
“I continue to believe that today’s energy companies will be the energy companies of the future,” says Peter Tchir, head of global macro at Academy Securities. “They will be the ones who drive the sustainable energy products.” Read more here.